The Democratic Party’s Electoral Rout Stemmed From Its China Strategy

The 2024 U.S. election concluded decisively, with Republicans securing a sweeping victory. Not only did Donald Trump win reelection to the White House, but Republicans also won the popular vote, traditionally a Democratic consolation prize. With Republican control of both the presidency and Congress, plus their advantage in Supreme Court judges, the Democratic Party’s defeat was total. U.S. voters thoroughly rejected the Biden administration’s four-year tenure, with their repudiation of Vice President Kamala Harris representing a clear condemnation of Biden’s policies.

The primary cause of Democrats’ defeat was dissatisfaction with economic performance under Biden, particularly inflation. According to exit polls, two-thirds of voters cited the economy as their top concern, with 69 percent of economically dissatisfied voters choosing Trump. Nearly 80 percent of voters reported struggling with inflation over the past year. During Biden’s term, prices rose by almost 20 percent, with an average annual inflation rate of 5.2 percent – the worst since Jimmy Carter, the last Democratic president to fail to achieve reelection. Prices for essential items and food saw even steeper increases, with grocery prices rising over 20 percent.

This inflation was partly a consequence of the Biden administration’s insistence on strategic competition with China, prioritizing it above all other issues. Thus it’s reasonable to ask whether the Trump administration will perform any better.

As a candidate, Biden criticized Trump’s tariffs as a tax on U.S. consumers and harmful to U.S. manufacturing and agriculture, and insisted Trump was “going after China in the wrong way.” Yet his administration maintained and even expanded these tariffs after taking office. The Biden administration, trapped in a strategic competition mindset, repeatedly missed chances for tariff reduction. Fearing accusations of being soft on China, the administration not only maintained but even increased tariffs in key sectors in September 2024, while remaining committed to near-shoring and friend-shoring strategies. Economists estimate these tariffs cost U.S. households an average of $830 annually. Lower income families suffered almost twice as much as their more affluent compatriots. 

Biden’s national security team, led by Jake Sullivan, believed China-U.S. strategic competition was entering a decisive decade. They thus hijacked economic policy and helped ignite the inflation bomb. While supply chain disruptions from the pandemic contributed to inflation, reducing tariffs and actively cooperating with China could have significantly mitigated this crisis. Instead, the administration only offered limited tariff exemptions while rejecting more rational approaches advocated by officials like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Another inflationary factor was the unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia, also partly driven by the desire to deter China and strengthen U.S. alliances against Beijing. The decisive removal of the Russian economy – the 11th largest in the world when sanctions began – from global supply chains gave rise to a predictable increase in prices globally. 

The Biden administration’s massive spending programs – including the American Rescue Plan, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act – injecting over $4 trillion into the economy, were in a large part justified by competition with China. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned in 2021 that such excessive spending would trigger generational inflation, but these warnings went unheeded.

Facing this inflation, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes put pressure on banks and increased debt burdens for ordinary Americans. In a nation with over $1 trillion in credit card debt, the rate increase could be felt broadly; 37 percent of Americans paid at least one late fee in the past year.

Rather than reconsidering their policies, Biden officials complained that Americans didn’t understand the economy’s strength. They pointed to the data when confronted, but failed to sympathize with the economic pain voters felt. Trump and Republicans successfully campaigned on Democratic economic failures, with polls showing handling the economy as Trump’s biggest advantage over Harris. It turned out that increasing tariffs is not a winning strategy. 

The administration’s fixation on great power competition extended to its aggressive pursuit of TikTok. Despite having 150 million U.S. users, particularly among young Americans who helped elect Biden in 2020, the administration pushed legislation to ban the app in an election year. By contrast, Trump embraced TikTok and gained more youth support. Combined with the administration’s handling of Gaza protests, youth support for Democrats plummeted. Exit polls showed significant increases in young voter support for Trump in key swing states – up 24 percentage points in Michigan, 18 points in Pennsylvania, and 15 points in Wisconsin among voters under 30 compared to four years ago.

The Biden administration’s electoral defeat stemmed from economic failures and youth disillusion, primarily caused by prioritizing strategic competition with China over improving average Americans’ lives. As the Trump administration prepares to take office, will Republicans repeat Democratic mistakes? Yale University’s Budget Lab estimates Trump’s proposed tariffs would cost American households $1,900 to $7,600 annually under different scenarios. Will Americans accept this? 

Great power competition may ultimately prove less compelling to voters than their grocery bills. Republicans are about to find out.