Top of the League at Christmas: What Does It Mean?

It’s Liverpool who top the Premier League table at Christmas this season, but what does that mean for their title aspirations? Here’s the ultimate guide to whether it’s a festive treat to be the top-flight leaders come Christmas Day.

Liverpool will spend Christmas Day 2024 top of the Premier League table. Chelsea were unable to temporarily move ahead of them on Sunday after a goalless draw at Everton, and Arne Slot’s men won 6-3 away at Spurs to extend their lead at the summit.

This marks the seventh occasion in Premier League history that Liverpool have been top at Christmas. However, they’ve gone on to win the title just once in the six previous occasions (2019-20), giving them a Premier League conversion rate of just 16.6%. The last time they were top at Christmas – December 2020 – they went on to finish third.

Expand that out to the top flight overall, though, and Liverpool’s title-winning rate improves. They’ve now been top at Christmas a record 21 times, and they have won the title on 11 of the previous 20 occasions (55%).

But if we move away from a team focus and broaden our research, what does it actually mean to be top at Christmas? It’s obviously a good thing, but how likely is it that the team will still be there come the end of the season?

Prior to 2024-25, there have been 125 English top-flight football seasons. A quick check of the calendars for each of those years shows us, yes, there have indeed been 125 different Christmas Days.

In the 125 previous English top-flight football seasons, the side at the top of the table on Christmas Day has gone on to win the title on 55 occasions, or 44% of the time. That rate increases slightly if you look at just the Premier League era, with the team spending Christmas top going on to win 16 of the 32 completed seasons to date (50%).

This has included two occasions when it happened for four consecutive seasons (between 2009-10 and 2012-13 as well as between 2014-15 and 2017-18) and a separate run of three between 2004-05 and 2006-07.

Teams to be Top of the Premier League on Christmas Day:

1992: Norwich City finished 3rd
1993: Manchester United finished 1st
1994: Blackburn Rovers finished 1st
1995: Newcastle United finished 2nd
1996: Liverpool finished 4th
1997: Manchester United finished 2nd
1998: Aston Villa finished 6th
1999: Leeds United finished 3rd
2000: Manchester United finished 1st
2001: Newcastle United finished 4th
2002: Arsenal finished 2nd
2003: Manchester United finished 3rd
2004: Chelsea finished 1st
2005: Chelsea finished 1st
2006: Manchester United finished 1st
2007: Arsenal finished 3rd
2008: Liverpool finished 2nd
2009: Chelsea finished 1st
2010: Manchester United finished 1st
2011: Manchester City finished 1st
2012: Manchester United finished 1st
2013: Liverpool finished 2nd
2014: Chelsea finished 1st
2015: Leicester City finished 1st
2016: Chelsea finished 1st
2017: Manchester City finished 1st
2018: Liverpool finished 2nd
2019: Liverpool finished 1st
2020: Liverpool finished 3rd
2021: Manchester City finished 1st
2022: Arsenal finished 2nd
2023: Arsenal finished 2nd
2024: Liverpool … finished?

Liverpool have now moved level with Manchester United (seven each) as the two teams to have topped the table on Christmas Day most frequently in Premier League history. It took Liverpool until their fifth attempt to go on and win the Premier League title.

The eagle-eyed among you might notice an unwanted pattern developing with Arsenal in the above list. After spending Christmas Day 2023 top of the league, they subsequently finished second to Man City. That means they’ve still never won the Premier League after sitting top at Christmas.

Across top-flight history, they’ve actually failed to win the league on the last seven occasions that they’ve led at Christmas. Obviously, they’ve won the title multiple times over that span, but the last time the Gunners won the league after also leading at Christmas was in 1947-48.

Liverpool’s win along with Chelsea’s dropped points on Sunday mean the Reds hold a four-point lead at the top.

The biggest lead ever held at Christmas in English top-flight history is Manchester City’s 13 points in the 2017-18 season. They turned that advantage into Pep Guardiola’s first title in England in a record-setting season. They broke numerous records, including most points (100), most wins (32), most goals (106), and highest goal difference (+79) as they eventually won the league by 19 points – the biggest margin of victory in English top-flight history.

When it comes to the biggest lead at Christmas that was not converted into a title, we have to journey back to 1995-96. It looked as though Newcastle United’s 69-year wait for a top-flight title was going to end as they took a 10-point advantage into Christmas. However, they would meet their biggest title rivals on 27 December 1995, with Manchester United carving out a 2-0 victory to cut the gap down. Kevin Keegan’s side would bounce back to re-establish a 12-point advantage before “mind games” and Anfield capitulations were among the things to hand Alex Ferguson another crown, and Sky Sports viewers one of the most memorable post-match interviews of all time.

Overall, it’s Liverpool who have found themselves at the summit on 25 December the most times (21) in English top-flight history, although they are closely followed by Manchester United (18). Everton may have last done so in 1969, but they have achieved this feat on nine different occasions.

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