Trump’s tariff weapon may amount to little in a changed world

By South China Morning Post | Created at 2024-11-16 08:31:28 | Updated at 2024-11-16 11:03:04 2 hours ago
Truth

The world seems to have become obsessed with tariffs since Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 5. Tariffs are being seen by many as a main pillar of his foreign policy and a weapon of economic mass destruction. The reality is more complex – and intriguing.

Trump’s proposed tariffs may well prove to be little more than a threat – more bark than bite. And even if they are applied as forcefully as the theatrical president-elect would have us fear, their impact on a changing global economy could prove muted.

What if, for example, the president-elect’s disdain for multilateral trade agreements and his desire to make America great again behind tighter trade and immigration borders leads him to embrace non-economic forms of internationalism rather than retreat into isolationism?

What if a Trump-led America content with a smaller role in global security turns out to want to seek closer engagement, not with rules-based trading blocs across and beyond Asia, but with looser-knit groups such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum or even Brics – or its principal members at least?

That might not be good for global trade and economic growth in the shorter term but it could secure a more stable international environment in which risks to world peace could be addressed and existential threats of hot wars and a hot planet tackled.

Trump is “Mr Tariff Man” in the eyes of many commentators but this is at least partly a reflection of their obsession with economic growth and failure to grasp that, with autocratic leaders, it is the spirit that matters as much as, or even more than, the letter.

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