U.S. intel warns Saudi nuclear deal could enable weapons development
- A classified U.S. intelligence assessment concludes Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons, raising alarms about the Trump administration's civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Riyadh.
- The 30-year deal, signed in July 2026 by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, could allow Saudi uranium enrichment up to 20%—just below weapons-grade—with limited international inspections.
- Democratic lawmakers led by Sens. Ed Markey and Jeff Merkley are demanding the administration abandon the agreement, citing insufficient safeguards and potential for a Middle East arms race.
- Critics point to financial connections involving Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who received $2 billion from a Saudi sovereign wealth fund, and Westinghouse Electric, which stands to gain billions.
- Congress is in a 90-day review period, but overturning the deal would require a two-thirds majority to override a likely presidential veto.
The intel assessment: What U.S. intelligence found
A classified U.S. intelligence assessment delivered to Congress last month has concluded that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons, according to U.S. officials who spoke with The Washington Post. The finding intensifies scrutiny of President Donald Trump's civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the kingdom, signed in July 2026.
The assessment, which has not been publicly released, was part of classified documents provided to lawmakers reviewing the landmark 30-year deal that could be worth tens of billions of dollars. The agreement authorizes American companies to build nuclear energy projects across Saudi Arabia, with the stated goal of strengthening U.S.-Saudi ties and preventing Riyadh from turning to China or Russia for nuclear technology.
The deal's key provisions and risks
The so-called Section 123 agreement establishes a legal framework for peaceful nuclear cooperation but contains provisions that experts say could enable weapons development. Under the deal, Saudi uranium enrichment is initially capped at below 5%. However, after an additional study and written agreement, that limit could rise to 20%—a level that can be enriched to weapons-grade material in a relatively short timeframe.
The agreement also does not require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency's "Additional Protocol," which would grant inspectors broad access to nuclear fuel-cycle facilities, research sites and suspected undeclared locations. Without this protocol, experts warn the IAEA may have no way of verifying whether Saudi Arabia is secretly developing nuclear weapons at undeclared facilities.
Lawmakers raise alarm over precedent and conflicts
Democratic senators led by Markey of Massachusetts and Merkley of Oregon have demanded the administration abandon the agreement, arguing it "departs from precedent, adopts looser restrictions and caves to Saudi demands." In a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the senators wrote that the deal is "all but certain to allow Riyadh to acquire the means to enrich uranium and possibly develop nuclear weapons."
The letter also highlighted potential conflicts of interest involving Trump associates. Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law and former senior adviser, accepted a $2 billion investment from a Saudi sovereign wealth fund after leaving the White House. Westinghouse Electric, which stands to gain tens of billions of dollars from the deal, has its majority owner closely associated with the real estate firm run in part by the sons of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
A volatile Middle East nuclear landscape
The controversy echoes past debates over nonproliferation policy, particularly the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that capped Iranian enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years—a standard the Trump administration criticized as too weak. Now, critics say Trump's own deal allows higher enrichment levels with fewer inspections.
The risk of an arms race is heightened by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's 2018 warning that Riyadh would develop nuclear weapons if Iran did. With Iran's nuclear facilities damaged but its enriched uranium believed intact following U.S. bombing operations last year, and Tehran's leadership growing more hardline after the assassination of its supreme leader, the region stands at a precarious nuclear precipice.
A deal that could reshape the Middle East
As Congress continues its 90-day review, the intelligence community's sobering assessment presents a stark choice for lawmakers. Supporters argue the agreement gives Washington more influence over Riyadh's nuclear program than if Saudi Arabia turned to Russia or China. But critics warn that loosening nonproliferation standards for a nation that has explicitly threatened to pursue nuclear weapons could trigger an atomic arms race across the Middle East.
The State Department has stated that the United States "does not and will not support a Saudi nuclear weapon program," but the classified intelligence assessment suggests otherwise about Saudi intentions. With Trump insisting on Saudi normalization with Israel as a condition—and Riyadh demanding progress toward a Palestinian state—the fate of the deal may hinge on diplomatic negotiations as much as congressional action. The coming weeks will determine whether this agreement strengthens American influence or opens the door to a nuclear-armed Saudi Arabia.
Sources for this article include:
