Ukraine: Guarded optimism after US peace talks in Jeddah

Following the heated public argument between Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia has become the country to host both nations as they resume their conversation over a possible path toward peace in Ukraine. 

Meanwhile, Europe, which has been conspicuously sidelined from the talks that will inevitably also affect its safety and require its backing, joins the world in watching developments from afar.

US-brokered Ukraine-Russia ceasefire agreement?

One achievement Ukrainian delegates have highlighted is the US pledge to resume military aid and intelligence sharing, still, they said they would only fully agree to the proposed 30-day ceasefire if Russia does, too.

Ukraine originally only sought a naval and aerial ceasefire.

"Today, in the conversation, there was an offer from the American side to take the first step immediately further and try to establish a complete ceasefire for 30 days, not only missiles, drones and bombs... not only in the Black Sea... but also along the entire front line," Zelenskyy said in a video address shortly after talks in Jeddah.

"Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, and we are ready to take such a step. The United States must convince Russia to do this," he added.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, who was part of the Ukrainian delegation in Jeddah, was quick to assure that this temporary ceasefire "is by no means about freezing the conflict."

"It is merely an attempt to being the path toward ending the war in a just manner,” he wrote in a statement on Facebook. "It is also a step that demonstrates who is truly interested in peace."

Representatives of Ukraine's opposition have also welcomed the successful conclusion of talks in Jeddah. Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian member of parliament for the center-right European Solidarty Party, for instance, posted on the instant messaging platform Telegram that, "the US and the Trump administration are on [Ukraine's] side." He also said he hoped Ukraine's leadership would keep communication channels with the US open.

What did Ukraine want to achieve in Jeddah?

Alyona Getmanchuk, founder and director of the New Europe Center, a Ukrainian think tank, believes Ukraine's delegates went to Jeddah with two clear tasks: Firstly, to be as convincing as possible in portraying Russia, not Ukraine, as the party obstructing a path toward peace. And secondly, to ensure that the diplomatic ball was now firmly in Russia's court.

"Reports on renewed military support and intelligence sharing indicate that Ukraine's delegation was successful on both counts," the foreign policy expert wrote on Facebook.

Dmytro Levus, director of Ukrainian Meridian, a public research outfit, believes that "it played a role that Ukraine launched its own initiative and that its ceasefire proposal aligned with that of Europe."

Speaking with DW, Levus added that, "Europe's relatively hard stance on a peace mission, which the army chiefs meeting in Paris made clear, helped strengthen Ukraine's bargaining position."

How will Russia respond?

Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of Penta, a Ukrainian political studies center, believes the outcome of US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia have surpassed even the most optimistic expectations.

"There is every reason to consider negotiations in Saudi Arabia a success for the Ukrainian position," he said. "Especially given that the alarming concerns over the US possibly forcing us to accept a peace process under Russian conditions have so far not materialized."

And Oleksiy Haran at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy would not rule out that Russia could agree to a temporary ceasefire. But the political scientist also fears that, as negotiations progress, Russia will refuse to back away from its desire to annex Ukrainian territory currently under Russian occupation.

The US, says Haran, could informally concede to such demands without formally agreeing to them on the record.

"In that case, Turmp would say, 'Look, we achieved a ceasefire,' and then he could ease up sanctions on Russia and pave the way for US-Russia trade agreements," Haran told DW.

Haran is not convinced that Russian President Vladimir Putin would sabotage a ceasefire agreement by delaying its implementation. But, the political scientist says, he might try to pressure the US with threats of a nuclear war.

"Trump has maneuvered himself into a spot where he's under pressure for having promised to put a quick end to the war," so the expert. "Now, he has to achieve that, while Putin is under no pressure at all. He's simply waiting for Trump to play out all his cards in Russia's favor."

This article was translated from German.