By Free Republic | Created at 2024-10-23 12:38:57 | Updated at 2024-10-23 15:30:08
2 hours ago
Update — Stunning numbers from Nevada. Rural counties are off the charts.
Nevada Independent ^ | October 22, 2024 | Jon Ralston
Posted on 10/23/2024 5:31:27 AM PDT by Red Badger
Updated, 10 PM, 10/22/24
Good evening, blog mates.
Headline: Rurals matter.
Especially when they are turning out 3.5 points above their registration and producing landslide ballot wins (58-20) over the Ds. Consider that Other 22 percent will mostly go to Trump, too, and maybe we should be talking about the GOP firewall in the rurals this cycle. It’s up to 16,500 out of only 44,000 ballots cast -- and that's without allocating the indies.
R statewide lead: Almost 14,000
Clark D firewall: 5,000
Washoe D advantage: -2,200
Total voters: 320,000, or 16 percent of registered voters. Could be approaching a quarter of entire vote, depending on turnout.
Dems are only winning the urban Nevada ballot race by 1 percent – 38-37.
Repubs have a nearly 3 percent turnout advantage statewide. It’s 3.5 percent in Clark, less than a point in Washoe and Dems actually are turning out slightly more than Repubs in rural Nevada in percentage, but the reg is so overwhelming that it doesn’t help them.
The details:
Clark is about 72 percent of the turnout, a point under reg; Washoe is about 15 percent, or nearly 2 points under reg; and you know where the other 3 points go.
Latest mail vs. in-person:
Dems up 12 points in mail, which is 56 percent of turnout (holding steady). Repubs lead by 25 points in in-person voting, which is 44 percent of the total vote.
Here are the latest extrapolations under various electorate mixtures (if you forgot, the first breakdown is Dem voters, second one is GOP split and the third is others):
So right now, if Harris won indies by 6 and they both held their bases, she would lose by 7,000 votes.
The rural firewall. It’s a thing.
More tomorrow, send any questions, criticism, praise, typos to ralston@thenvindy.com and if you appreciate my work here, please donate to our nonprofit. We like recurring donations the best.
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1 posted on 10/23/2024 5:31:27 AM PDT by Red Badger
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