Ursula Kiev: No Funds; Kiev Admits Losing War; Wants NATO Entry, Rus Shells Pokrovsk; Kursk Disaster [My notes on 1hr 28 min video]

EU Commission President is in Kyiv, talking with senior officials/Zelensky.

Explanations for her visit - some suggest she's there to cool Zelensky down prior to his NY visit, perhaps get him to be a little more realistic about his 'victory plans.'

Mercouris' based his opinion on an article on Financial Times which concerns the western loan to Ukraine.
She is to announce a 35 billion Euro loan, and will reassure Ukrainians that it is only part of the 50 billion dollar loan promised back in June by the G7, which was supposed to be paid off with the interest on frozen Russian assets, with a EU guarantee on repayment.

Based on Financial Times articles, the 50 billion dollar loan has been undergoing modifications since the idea was first proposed a year ago. Originally - the loan would be raised on international financial markets, it would take the form of bonds issued by Ukraine, floated on the international money market, bids on offers by financial community, purchases by institutions would be backed independently (Russian frozen assets, not based on Ukraine economic picture) and they need not worry about the legality of that because the whole thing would be guaranteed by the EU.

The whole point of the loan was to get around the growing public objection to direct funding to Ukraine by western governments, which has to be authorized by those  western governments.

Resistance to additional direct funding in Congress was the first impetus for this loan idea [ransomnote: I think Trump suggested a loan], but other parliaments are increasingly skeptical. Getting Parliaments to approve additional direct funds and loans was getting increasingly difficult, and this drove the creation of the notion of the loan based on Russian frozen assets. This EU loan idea was appealing because Congress and western parliaments would not have to be involved.

Over the subsequent months, it has become clear to G7 that this idea will not work, the financial markets would almost certainly turn their backs on this loan, Ukraine lacks financial health to accept loans, there are legal concerns about using interest on Russian assets, and there are doubts about the guarantees EU countries could give to back the loans.

7:31

As Alex Christoforou has said, the Russian frozen assets are not making enough interest income to repay the bonds in an acceptable space of time. Around June some leading western leaders realized the original 50 billion dollar plan was not going to work. They had already promised it to Ukraine, much discussion occurred. Mercouris notes that a consistent aspect of the Ukrainian crisis is that, "bad ideas never go away."

An alternative had to be found to proceed with this loan. The idea of floating it on the financial markets has been dropped. It's now clear based on the latest article in Financial Times (FT), it's going to be done by direct funding through western governments.

9:08

The US, European governments would get their parliaments/Congress to agree to fund the loan. The US would provide 20 Billion dollars and the EU would fund 20 Billion (distributed among EU member nations based on economic weight), which meant Germany would have to pay a big part of it (7-8 Billion Dollars). The remaining 10 Billion would be supplied by governments of Canada, South Korea, Japan. That was the plan in the summer.

But this requires various parliaments would have to vote for appropriations, even if the governments would secure loans on the international market themselves and convert them into loans to Ukraine.

11:00

The governments would have to increase their net borrowing, and their parliaments would have to be consulted, and this would be deeply controversial (ex. Germany). That was the plan in the summer.

It would be extremely hard to obtain funding via parliamentary processes ford funds for Ukraine at this point in time. There are the legal issues (ex. Hungary's objection) related to using income from frozen Russian assets, and the EU would have to guarantee the repayment of loans by Britain, United States, Canada, Japan if legal contests prevented repayment.

13:43

There is a basic concern that various parliaments, and Congress in US, are not going to be willing to approve direct financing of Ukraine in this way. A week ago, there was a US media report saying the Biden administration had sounded out Congress about the potential for further appropriations for Ukraine would pass, and the response was overwhelmingly negative, including from democrats, in advance of the November elections.

This is why the loan is stuck (legal, political challenges). These problems extend to Hungary and others are unwilling to agree to the kind of guarantees upon which the Americans are insisting.

16:00

The plan for funding for Ukraine is in limbo.

Now, Ursula von der Leyen and the European Commission are talking about a loan for Ukraine independent of the originally promised loan (50 billion Dollars involving American, Japan, Canada etc.) and just base a loan on the proportion to be supplied by European countries, whether or not the U.S. follows along later (ransomnote: Are they hoping Harris can successfully steal the election?). This would mean the Europeans would not be guaranteeing the repayment of loans by Britain, United States, Canada, Japan (not taking on liabilities). That's where the new proposed figures of 20 Billion Euros came from.

18:00

The problem is that the Ukrainians need an awful lot more than 20 Billion Euros. Ursula von der Leyen responded by suggested funding up to 40 Billion dollars (fund the whole amount themselves). Parliaments have rejected this idea. She has bad news for the Ukrainians but she's not going to share that. So Ursula von der Leyen has taken the train to Kyiv and she's telling the Ukrainians not to worry because the EU will provide the loan, it won't be 40 Billion Euros (that's too much), but they're going to compromise on 35 Billion Euros (equivalent around 40 Billion dollars). It essentially covers America's part of the funding in the original plan. Canada, South Korea, Japan will be invited to supply their share based on the original plan.

20:31

The Americans are completely off the hook - funding wouldn't pass in Congress.

This is Ursula von der Leyen's proposal she will tell the Europeans, it's unknown whether the Ukrainians will believe her or not, it can only be a proposal because she cannot commit the member states to agree to this. 35 Billion Euros (40 billion dollars) in loans from the EU will have to be voted on in each of the various European parliaments, in addition to the EU parliament.

21:43

The EU parliament will agree to this - there is a massive pro Ukraine sentiment.

Individual European parliaments are a completely different proposition. Mercouris doesn't believe France has enough parliamentary members (left wing and right wing) to agree to a loan by France to form part of the larger EU loan. In Italy and Germany, similar problems exist passing this controversial loan idea. This all has to be decided before the end of the year, because next year is a different budgetary cycle - the EU would have to start over.

One should never underestimate the ability of the EU to impose pressure on member states, but it's going to be difficult. So Ursula von der Leyen is dashing to Ukraine, telling them not to worry, promising 40 Billion dollars from EU and remaining funds from Canada, Japan, Canada. She is in danger of making promises which cannot be kept. We shall see.

26:29

One way or the other, the whole idea of providing funding to Ukraine from loans is starting to break down, even if the EU can strong arm member states to supply approval, and even if Congress is able to approve some funding, there will be a loss of good will and a lot of anger. Significant political costs are involved in pushing for this. Ursula von der Leyen and the EU commission remain obsessed or 'committed' to the loan which, based on everything Mercouris can see, is now in serious trouble.

Ukraine - Victory Plan
Certain comments floating around on the Internet, attributed to Zelensky's Chief of Staff, Andriy Yermak, (Mercouris is not sure if Yermak actually made the comments - this is based on 2nd and 3rd hand sources) allegedly said Ukraine is in dire straits, situation on battlefield is critical, it is definitely losing the war and cannot sustain the war much longer, and certainly not forever, and since Putin's negotiation terms are impossible (Istanbul plus, with Ukraine forfeiting the entirety of the 4 regions and Crimea).

ransomnote: I'm not familiar with Instanbul agreements. Searching for resources, I discovered documentation was never released following the Istabul meetings (zelensky and Putin) and basically Russia and Ukraine never agreed. Generally, it looks like Putin wanted independence for the four regions in eastern Ukraine that western Ukraine has been shelling, equality for the languages of Russian and Ukrainian, for Crimea to become part of Russia, for Ukraine to reduce its military to about 100,000 troops, for Ukraine to promise not host foreign militaries and to remain neutral, without NATO membership. I found the following link helpful.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/reconstructing-istanbul-accords-208818?page=0%2C1
by David C. Hendrickson

Andriy Yermak continued by saying the only way out is a massive escalation with NATO's direct involvement, and that NATO must agree to let Ukraine join NATO before the end of this year. This analysis is all based on 3rd party sources, and Mercouris believes that this is the basis for Zelensky's victory plan.

30:00

If that is indeed Zelensky's victory plan, Mercouris believes it's inconceivable that it will be accepted. The fact that Ukraine is losing the war, the fact that Ukraine are saying the only way they can win the war is through direct NATO involvement in the war itself - will be enough to persuade some European governments, and likely the Pentagon, to say '...that's enough, we can't continue with this any longer, there's no way we're going to go to war with nuclear Russia.' Mercouris believes this is the message the Ukrainians will be receiving over the next few weeks.

31:12

It's possible Yermak's comments were falsely attributed to him, but Zelensky has said the situation of the Ukrainian military is very difficult in Pokrovsk and Karakovo (sp). Zelenksy is correct; the Ukraine is losing the war. The article in the Washington Post by David Ignacious basically says as much. David Ignatius' article says, as Yermak supposedly said, the Ukraine can't continue the war, it's grinding them down, the attrition is unbearable, the Ukraine is close to collapse, or that it will eventually collapse.

32:34

It's plausible that the Ukrainians are telling the west this -that they cannot negotiate because Putin's terms are unacceptable, that they can't continue fighting like this indefinitely, that they (Ukrainians) don't have what they need, but Russia's resources are all but limitless, that they are being ground down- that either the west goes 'all in (bring Ukraine into NATO and invoke article 5, give Ukraine all the weapons they want, permit deep missile strikes in Russia, and for the West to directly engage the war with Russia) or we are going to lose, and our loss, the debacle, will be a loss for the west as well.

ransomnote: Link for Article 5 of Nato

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm

Mercouris suspects that this is the message the Ukraine is giving the west. Mercouris believes there is zero interest in western capitals for Zelensky's plan (direct confrontation between West and Russia). If Zelensky proposes his ideas in New York (General Assembly), then he will run into resistance.

ransomnote: "The two-day summit starts Sunday 9/22, two days before the high-level meeting of world leaders begins at the sprawling U.N. compound in New York City. "

https://apnews.com/article/un-general-assembly-leaders-conflicts-crises-summit-c8dec645b01be23f67c542666c229d9d

Mercouris says the Pentagon is 'continuing to put its foot down' stating that they don't see any military advantage in the use of long range missiles in Russia, that major Russian military assets are beyond the range of the ATACAMS and Storm Shadow missiles. The Pentagon's remarks show their unwillingness to become directly involved in a conflict with Russia.

If all these reports are true, then Mercouris suspects we are in a make-or-break moment. He believes the west will tell Zelensky, (paraphrasing) 'we'll continue to support you, give you whatever we can although we're increasingly short of things now', as Ursula von der Leyen said, (paraphrasing)'we'll still give you money and arms, some shells, and you must continue fighting, but if you cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield and the situation is as bad as you say, then you must find a way to freeze the conflict to avoid the final disaster'. That throws the issue back on the Ukraine.

Another possibility, Zelensky and Yermak and all the others are telling the west these things because they know the West will decline to get involved. Then Zelensky and others will tell the Ukrainian people that Ukraine cannot continue the war, the losses are impossibly high, that the war is being lost, that they called on the West and the West refused to help (some will use the word 'betrayed'), and in light of these facts, the Ukraine has no alternative other than coming to terms with the Russians, agree to negotiate for a ceasefire. This would be logical. It would be even more logical to go to the Russians now for negotiations.

The big question, is 'what will the Russians say?' The west often ignores the fact that the Russians have a say in this matter. Russia may agree to talk but refuse a ceasefire unless the Ukrainians do as Putin said back in June, which is pull their troops out completely from the four regions in the east; if you don't do that, the war goes on.

That may be something the Ukraine can't agree to. It may provoke political crisis in Ukraine if they do try to agree to Putin's terms. Mercouris is not certain of Zelensky's actual plan, but if this is correct, it may be that if Zelensky tells his people 'we need peace or a ceasefire, at least for now because the Russians are too strong and the west won't help us'; this may provoke a violent or angry reaction from hard liners, Zelensky doesn't survive it, and then the war continues in some other form.

40:07

It further suggests to Mercouris, in terms of the military conflict, we are now definitely entering the end game. He thinks in July the Ukrainians realized they would be defeated by Russia. In the last few weeks, the west has come to realize this too. There's still paralysis, extraordinary plans, proposals of missile strikes, talk of NATO membership for Ukraine, loans which can never be repaid, direct involvement of the west and Russia. These are strange and unworkable ideas, which indicates we are now entering the end game.

Military situation of the fighting/battle fields:

Returning briefly to drone attack on the Russian ammunition base. The main bunkers (most sensitive materials/equipment) are intact but the rest of the base shows significant damage. Estimates of the amount of munitions destroyed is hard to pin down because using Shoigu's estimates (10- 15 tons per day) includes fuel oil etc (which was not at the base). Based on Shoygu's estimates of Russian consumption daily, Simplicitus estimates 2 days worth. Mercouris says he can't be sure but it's likely 2 or 3 weeks or so if one removes non munitions supplies from Shoigu's original estimates. Russia has a vast capacity to replace munitions damaged (they manufacture their own rapidly). Mercouris said the take away is that the explosion would dent but not break Russian military capacity.

47:10

Referencing an opinion piece published in the New York Post (Sept 19) by US journalist Mr. Lee Hockstader "The Losing Strategy of Underestimating Russia" Mercouris notes that the piece contains all the negative stereotypes about Russia common in the media, but it also makes the point that Russia is still a formidable major global power.
The Losing Strategy of Underestimating Russia

The article also notes that Russia's 'blue water' combat capacity was not harmed by drone attacks on its vessels in the black sea.

"Much has been made of Ukraine’s impressive success in sinking or crippling a chunk of Putin’s Black Sea Fleet. But with a couple of exceptions, the Chatham House study said, the ships destroyed or disabled were “very old or limited” vessels. The Russian navy “has lost none of its blue-water combat capability,” the paper concluded, and Moscow’s “global power projection capabilities are undiminished.”"
SNIP
"But the longer the war in Ukraine grinds on, the more credence the West should give his bedrock assumption — that Moscow can outlast Washington and its allies through the sheer mass of Russian forces and resources, and by keeping the West off balance with threats of escalation.

Putin’s strategy seems increasingly sound, as public support for Ukraine has softened in the United States and parts of Europe. There, hopes have receded that Russia can be defeated on the battlefield, or that its economy will crumble under the weight of U.S.-led sanctions."

50:42

Situation on the Battlefield
The situation is getting extremely bad.

Kursk
The Russians have advanced another kilometer, according to the Ukrainians. IF reports that Russia has reached the outskirts of Svylykovo (sp?), then the enclave of Ukrainians in Kursk is no longer an enclave, and the Ukrainians are now in a pocket which is about to transform into a cauldron, because the Russians are advancing from other directions as well. This is turning into a potential disaster for Ukraine.

53:05

Group of Forces North (Russians in the Kursk region) said the past 24 hours were another record day of losses (military personnel) for Ukraine; it lost 600 in the Kharkiv region, 480 Ukrainians lost in the Sumy region (includes Kursk). They say the Ukrainians are not going to stop but will continue to send troops and expensive machinery to try to hold on to their positions.

55:39

The Ukrainian government is doing this because they can't face a retreat from Kursk when Zelensky is going to New York to press for more support.

An article in The Guardian on 9/20 which is said to be based on Russian military documents (58:51) that the Ukrainians appear to have captured when they seized Sudzha (sp?). These documents appear to confirm the Russians did anticipate that there would be a Ukrainian attack on Kursk. From The Guardian, "Russia's military command had anticipated Ukraine's incursion into it's Kursk region, and had been making plans to prevent it for several months, according to a cache of documents the Ukrainian army said it had seized from abandoned Russian positions in the region." More, Unit commanders were given instructions to prepare the soldiers psychologically for the battle," The documents reference printed orders, hand written logs recording events, discussing positions. The assumption the Ukrainians have is that the Russians were taken by surprise anyway and were in disarray, indicating their incompetence and disorganization.

Mercouris believes the Ukrainian document find is further evidence that his prior source who claimed the Russians did know of the Kursk operation, and the town of Sudzha would be the target, that the Russians had a fairly good idea what the Ukrainians were going to do, and that at some point the Russians decided that rather than try to prevent the incursion they would let the Ukrainians steamroll into Kursk, and lay a trap for the Ukrainians there.

Mercouris is not saying that the documents are fake, or that they directly corroborate what his source told him; but he believes this is a further piece of evidence which supports the idea (Kursk is a trap) and the source's information he was given, specifying the same time frame, are accurate. The Guardian says Russians knew months in advance about the Ukrainian plan to invade Kursk, and Mercouris' source had seen similar information identifying that same general time frame. Mercouris notes, we now see the results.

Once this war is over, Mercouris would be interested in what Russian memoirs say about the Kursk incursion. Kursk remains something of a sideshow in terms of this war, although increasingly expensive one for Ukraine, the Ukrainians are being bled dry by this i.e.,  as said by CNN, David Ignatius in WAPO etc.

1:06:10

One of the two areas which Zelensky says are now desperate, is Pokrovsk/Myrnograd region. The Russians are reported to be a few kilometers from Myrnograd (sp?) and 10 kilometers from Pokrovsk. The Russians are now shelling Pokrovsk. This is not just bombing or missile strikes; Pokrovsk is being systematically shelled by Russian tube artillery. Russian guns can have a range of up to 25 kilometers, if specifically modified. But if Russians have started to shell Pokrovsk, it does suggest they are indeed within 10 miles of Pokrovsk, they have secured stable positions there so they can bring out their artillerly, and are firing without fear of counter battery fire, attack or intervention from the Ukrainian side.

1:08:08

That article in Ukrainsk Pravda tells us the Ukrainians are very short of artillery in this area, extremely short of shells, and not in a position to provide counter battery fire against Russian artillery in the Pokrovsk. SO the Russians are closer to Pokrovsk and have secured a bridgehead close by, and they are now able to systematically shell the city.

There's still a lot of confusion about where the various forces are located in this area. (Mercouris discusses villages and fighting in nearby cities I can't pronounce.) The Russians are systematically shelling main supply roads leading to, and running through, Pokrovsk.

1:10:00

This includes the great supply road leading from Pokrovsk further east to Chasiv Yar. The Russians are now comfortably close to Pokrovsk rail lines, and are shelling, which cuts off troop and supply trains to Pokrovsk. Another railway line from the North which goes to Myrnograd which is still just out of range, so the Ukrainians can still use it. But other main railway lines around Pokrovsk have been closed. This all shows a marked deterioration around Pokrovsk, and reflects that Ukrainians are much weaker there compared with the reports from various mapping projects. Mercouris is not saying Pokrovsk has fallen, or that it is being stormed by the Russian army. He is saying the battle for Pokrovsk has formally begun. 1:12:05

Further south, some are still insisting the coal mine and slag heap north of Sylydovo (sp?) are under Ukrainian control. Mercouris doesn't know, but the Urkainsk Pravda wrote as if the region is under Russian control. There may be a journalist error - confusion with another coal mine/slag heap a little to the east, connected to the village of Mikhalivka (sp?). Mercouris is just passing on the report that the assumed reliable Ukrainian source, Ukrainst Pravda, says the coal mine/slag heap near Sylydovo is under Russian control.

Mercouris doesn't think anyone disputes that there is fighting in eastern Sylydovo.

1:13:30

The Urkainian counterattack there seems to have stopped. Russians are in control of Mikhailivka (sp?). But the important fighting is south, with a storming operation in progress, with the Russians in control of about half of the city. There's no corroboration for this report, but it wouldn't be surprising. (more details about cities and Russian advances). The Russian forces are moving slowly through a few, mined fields. When the fields are cleared, they are expected to meet up with more Russian troops. 1:17:46

According to Ukrainska Pravda, the Russians out number the Ukrainians, they have more artillery; more machines, tanks and armored vehicles; far more drones.

Putin toured a drone factory in St. Petersburg, and said that Russia manufactures 4000 drones per day, far beyond what Ukraine can achieve. He also said Russian drone production had increased 10 fold over the last year, and that indicates their capacity.

The Russians are far stronger. The Ukrainska Pravda article describes the Ukrainian army as disorganized, their command system is unstable, their fortified lines are often in the wrong places, which means the Russians are can steadily and incrementally move to tie this whole area up.

1:19:09

More discussion here about cities under Russian control. Mercouris says we can see the Russian tide is closing on all of these places. Further south, Donbas Coal Mine #3 is also under Russian control. It's still unknown if the Russians control all of Donbas Coal mine #1.

1:21:14

The Military Summary channel says the Russians are now conducting major bombing, artillery and drone offensives across all of the villages in this area, which suggests that some major Russian offensive is being prepared, possibly a major storming effort.

It appears the Ukrainians no longer have the opportunity to retreat from this area (too late). The fate of the Ukrainian soldiers in Vulydar (sp), Mercouris regrets to say, has been sealed.

Elsewhere there are reports of further Russian advances in Toretsk itself.

1:23:06

He cites the name of a publication (or journalist?) I can't spell (Phonetically, Raydovka?) talking about the storming of central Toretsk and suggesting if the Russians capture this area then the rest of Toretsk will almost immediately collapse. Similar claims are being made about the Russians in Chasiv Yar- that the Russian storming operation of the remaining hi-rise area in North West Chasiv Yar - the suggestion made is that if this area falls, the rest of Chasiv Yar will fall quickly.

There are very complicated Russian operations taking place close to Kukinsk (sp?).

1:24:09

Russians continue to push forward, storming a village east of Kukinsk. Russians are enlarging the area they control - it's very complicated there. (ransomnote: more village names and Russian advances here)

To repeat the point made by David Ignatius, even as this continues, "Ukraine is bleeding out." In the complex, bizarre story of the loan, we see that funding for Ukraine is frittering out. We see also that military supplies appear to be dwindling as well. And if it's true, Ukraine is demanding that it be brought into NATO within the next few weeks, and that is a clear sign how desperate their situation is.

Mercouris believes this is the start of the end game, which if anyone plays chess (Mercoris says he does not), it's always the most difficult part of the chess game.
1:26:30

He adds a few lines about the situation in Israel (air strikes) which he will cover in detail in his next program.