US reclaims spot as South-east Asia’s preferred superpower amid concerns of China’s sway: Survey

By The Straits Times | Created at 2025-04-03 03:58:53 | Updated at 2025-04-04 00:27:08 21 hours ago

SINGAPORE – The United States has reclaimed its pole position as the superpower that South-east Asia would pick if the region is forced to choose a side, a new survey finds.

This marks a pendulum swing back after China edged out the US for the first time in the 2024 edition of the same study.

The findings, captured in the annual flagship The State of South-east Asia study by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore released on April 3, reveal a shift in regional sentiment as concerns over Chinese influence in the region mount.

While South-east Asian countries have often said they do not want to choose sides, the poll suggests a preference for a strong US presence to hedge against worries over growing Chinese dominance in the region.

Walking the US-China tightrope

About 52.3 per cent of all those polled say they would choose the US if Asean were forced to align with one side; the proportion stands at 52.9 per cent for those respondents based in Singapore.

More than half polled (51.6 per cent) rank aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea as their top geopolitical concern, citing apprehension over Chinese encroachment into exclusive economic zones and fears of an accidental conflict between an Asean member state and China as their chief worries.

The results suggest that countries in South-east Asia see the US as a needed offshore balancer amid anxieties about rising Chinese assertiveness.

The study was conducted from Jan 3 to Feb 15, straddling the inauguration of a new US president on Jan 20, and after Mr Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2024. The 2,023 polled online include representatives from the private sector, academia, civil society, governments, as well as regional and international organisations.

In 2025, more have expressed confidence in the US’ role as a strategic partner and in regional security, up 10 percentage points to 44.9 per cent compared with 2024.

Unclear, however, is how South-east Asia views Mr Trump’s series of tariffs unleashed since, including a framework of reciprocal tariffs on April 2 (April 3 in Singapore).

Respondents view China as the most influential country – politically, strategically and economically – in South-east Asia consistently over the past six years since the study’s inception in 2019, despite the gap between China and the US appearing to be narrowing.

Asean has been China’s largest trading partner since 2020. The region may be awakening to the realisation that this is a double-edged development, as Chinese exports to the region have grown rapidly and local industries struggle to compete with cheaper Chinese products.

Tensions in the South China Sea, which a third of global maritime trade passes through, have remained high. As China asserts expansive territorial claims, steps up patrols and clashes with claimant states, particularly the Philippines, the US has challenged Chinese claims by carrying out freedom of navigation operations.

Most recently, the Chinese military announced a patrol during US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s visit to the Philippines in end-March, where he reaffirmed Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to Manila. Asean and China are said to be close to finalising a Code of Conduct two decades in the making.

While confidence in China doing the right thing has grown from one in four to over one in three, the proportion who say they do not consider China a responsible or reliable partner has also inched up from 17.6 per cent to 22.5 per cent.

South-east Asia’s hedging strategy

The study underscores both the reality that South-east Asia remains a key battleground for influence between the world’s two superpowers and the tricky geopolitical tightrope facing Asean.

Nevertheless, most South-east Asian countries remain bullish on prospects of relations with both superpowers, with the majority saying they see bilateral ties with both remaining the same or improving. Only 14.2 per cent think ties with the US will worsen, and 19.5 per cent believe the same of China.

Among those anticipating an uptick in US engagement with South-east Asia under Mr Trump, four in 10 think his tough stance on China will maintain a balance of power in the region and another three in 10 say his strong leadership can resolve conflict.

But the majority who are pessimistic think Mr Trump’s unpredictability adds uncertainty to US engagement with the region. About one in three think the Trump administration lacks interest in South-east Asia, while one in six says the US president will ignore South-east Asia and work with China directly.

Superpower rivalry is but one feature for South-east Asia. While the US continues to be seen as the leading country to maintain the rules-based order and uphold international law, a steady proportion of respondents also view Asean and the European Union playing that role. The EU remains South-east Asia’s most preferred and trusted partner, with 36.3 per cent choosing it as Asean’s best hedge against US-China rivalry, with Japan a close second (at 29.6 per cent).

Japan, too, maintains its pole position as the most trusted major power in South-east Asia in 2025.

“Japan’s respectful and cooperative approach to regional engagement remains well-perceived despite domestic political shifts with the appointment of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in October 2024, which has raised expectations of a potential foreign policy recalibration from Tokyo,” the study, which precedes major security developments including a new joint command in Tokyo and deployment of long-range missiles in South-west Japan, says.

With the emergence of new formal and informal groupings in recent years such as Brics, Aukus and the Quad, however, a unified Asean approach appears elusive. Views within South-east Asia are split on whether Asean should join such groups as a collective (23.5 per cent) or as individual countries (20.2 per cent), be mindful of doing so and risking undermining Asean’s centrality (23.8 per cent) or strengthen its convening power to discourage members from joining other groupings (26.2 per cent).

Amid a rising tide of protectionism, there appears to be consensus that Asean must accelerate regional integration, with 40.2 per cent agreeing that this is a top priority compared with deepening cooperation with partners, maintaining the status quo, or disengaging altogether.

The key question remains whether Asean can successfully navigate numerous competing priorities. Of all the issues facing the region, most respondents cite climate change and extreme weather patterns as its top challenge for the first time since the survey was conducted, though concerns over sluggish economic prospects are still ranked second.