US-Russia meeting on Ukraine: What is at stake?

Ukraine has accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the United States — if Russia agrees. As a result, the US has lifted restrictions on aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine.

Now, attention turns to the negotiations between Russia and the US slated for the end of the week and what the outcome will mean for Ukraine and Europe.

"The ball is in the Russian's court," Daniel Fried, an Atlantic Council fellow and former US Ambassador to Poland, told DW. "The Ukrainians have done what [US President Donald Trump's] administration and even [Vice President] JD Vance insisted they do, which is back Trump's peace initiative."

"The question is, will the Russians agree to a ceasefire? And if they do agree, will they adhere to it?"

Trump's strained relations with Europe

The journey to this point has been fraught, fraying long-standing assumptions about America's place in Europe and its relationship with the continent.

Trump's election promise to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a single day after being inaugurated met the harsh realities of brokering a peace deal. Nevertheless, the US president has pursued a conclusion to the conflict.

Phone calls to Russian President Vladimir Putin, US summits in the Middle East and public declarations by US officials that it would be unrealistic to expect Russia to return its territory have all shaken up the established order in Europe. Engaging directly with Putin is a 180-degree change in policy from the Biden administration.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz amid talks on February 18 in Saudia Arabia. Ukrainian officials were not invited.Image: Russian Foreign Ministry/TASS/dpa/picture alliance

As Trump thawed relations with Russia, Europe has found itself sidelined in the dealings between Russia and the US — so much so that the talks between Ukraine and the US

were held in Saudi Arabia  rather than in Europe, the continent most affected by Russia's aggression.

"I think the deeply insulting thing for many Europeans is to be disregarded," Kristine Berzina, managing director for Geostrategy North at the German Marshall Fund, told DW.

"It's one thing to be in the room to have an argument, and it's a second thing to not be allowed in the room at all."

Trump blames Zelenskyy for Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Trump's stance towards Ukraine and Europe has been volatile since returning to the presidency.

He at one point assigned blame  for Russia's invasion to

Zelenskyy , on other occasions NATO, and called the Ukrainian president him a "dictator without elections." 

This brushed past Ukrainian laws which suspend elections during a time of conflict and the near impossibility of holding a vote while the country is fighting for survival.

The low point came at the start of March, where a catastrophic Oval Office meeting with Trump and Vance saw Zelenskyy head back to Europe to shore up support from European allies, while remotely affirming his gratitude for US aid.  

Amid a fractious relationship with Trump, Europe has needed to confront an existential question: what does the continent look like without the guarantee of US backing for the first time since World War II?

"Europe needs to take more responsibility for strengthening the security in Europe," Pavel Baev, a senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institute, told DW.

"[The situation shows] European security is a matter for Europeans [and] that a lot more effort needs to be invested."

The EU response since Trump's return has been to release around €800 billion ($841.5 billion) in defense capability spending as part of a five-point "ReArm Europe" plan. Leaders have also expressed their support for Ukraine and continental defense.

British prime minister Keir Starmer said the UK was ready to send troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force. French president Emanuel Macron has discussed allowing French nuclear arms to be used as a European safety net. Germany's chancellor-apparent Fredrich Merz boldly called for alternatives to NATO and potentially building independent European defense capabilities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has had a tumultuous relationship with Donald TrumpImage: Tetiana Dzhafarova/POOL/AFP/Getty Images

Uncertain outcome

Trump's disdain for Ukraine and Europe and his regard for Russia are unsurprising, said Max Bergmann, director of the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies' Europe, Russia, Eurasia program.

"There's all sorts of theories about [why the US is engaging with Russia], from Trump's businesses having interacted with Russian oligarchs and funding Russian money laundering, to Russia interfering in the 2016 election and helping Trump, to Trump having just an affinity for strong-man leaders like Putin," Bergmann told DW.

"Trump has been entirely consistent about his affinity for Russia, about his disregard for the NATO Alliance."

Reports from Reuters news agency and Bloomberg suggest special envoy Steve Witkoff, a Trump ally with little prior diplomatic experience, will meet with Putin this week. There are as yet no indications whether Europe or Ukraine will have representation at the table.

But affinity notwithstanding, the first encounter between the two powers on Russian soil since the Ukraine invasion may not necessarily yield the results Trump wants.

"I think there is a very clear difference between the war, as seen by President Trump, as something which makes no sense, something which needs to be stopped as soon as possible, and the war as seen from Moscow, where it is an existential conflict, where a lot of crucial issues for Russia's security and very existence are at stake," said Baev.

"I do not see any readiness in Moscow to change its ... strategic approach to the war in Ukraine."

Against the backdrop of Ukraine's ceasefire agreement and Russia's aggression, Trump's desire to end the war will be served best by a well-briefed delegation, says Fried, the former US ambassador.

"Putin specifically, and Russians in general, are very good at complicating negotiations, throwing in curve balls, new conditions, making it complicated and obfuscating," he said.

"If you haven't been around, you don't know when the Russians are lying to you — and they may well lie.

"The deal before us is pretty simple: 30-day complete ceasefire and the Russians need not complicate it unless they think that they can run circles around the Americans, which they may."

And beyond the deal that Trump is seeking with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, he may soon find that a closer alliance with Russia presents limited strategic advantage for the US.

"I don't know why we would be wanting to strengthen our main enemy," Bergmann said. "There is also no real economic gain that the United States gets from engaging Russia."

Edited by: Kate Hairsine