By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-15 12:41:33 | Updated at 2024-11-21 15:54:30
6 days ago
Wolves are on a mission for Premier League survival. Matheus Cunha is their commander-in-chief; here’s why his goals, creativity and all-round play make him indispensable in their bid to avoid relegation.
Is there another Premier League player who is more important to his team than Matheus Cunha is to Wolves right now?
The Brazilian was instrumental in helping his side earn their first win of the season on Matchday 11, grabbing a goal and an assist as Wolves beat Southampton 2-0 at Molineux. It was a win that dragged Gary O’Neil’s side off the bottom of the Premier League table.
As usual, it seemed like one man was at the heart of everything good Wolves did.
Following a surging run into Southampton’s half, Cunha provided the assist for Pablo Sarabia’s early opener with a pass that was as delicate as it was incisive. He then sealed the win in the second with a superb strike from distance.
It took his total goal involvement tally to seven for the season (five goals, two assists) in the Premier League, and he’s directly contributed to four goals in his last three games. Wolves have secured points in all three of them (W1 D2).
His display against Saints marked the culmination of an ascent that’s seen him become one of the most-rounded forwards in the Premier League over the past 12 months.
The 25-year-old has had a hand in 23 goals across his last 28 Premier League starts (15 goals, 8 assists) in a run that started with Wolves’ dramatic 2-1 victory over Tottenham in November last year.
Across that period, only six players have more goal involvements in the Premier League. Not only have they all played more minutes than Cunha, but each of them plays for teams who finished in the top six last season.
Let’s not forget we’re talking about someone who last season played for a team that finished 14th and scored just 47 goals collectively, and in 2024-25 have only just got their first win after 11 games.
This is not exactly ground-breaking analysis, but when watching Wolves play it really does feel like everything funnels through their talisman. The numbers certainly support that theory.
Cunha leads the way at Wolves for goal involvements (7), and overall he’s contributed to 43.8% of all of their goals. The only players who can better that proportion are either central strikers, players who play for one of the traditional ‘big six’ teams, or Dwight McNeil (!).
But we can go beyond goals and assists to quantify Cunha’s importance to Wolves by using our sequence data. That can tell us how much he is involved in moves that don’t necessarily end with a goal, but at least result in a shot.
This season he’s been involved in 50 open-play attacking sequences that have ended in a shot for Wolves. That’s 10 more than anyone else in the team.
Translate that to a per-90 basis (minimum 270 minutes played) and Cunha is the only Wolves player involved in over four shot-ending moves on average every 90 minutes.
Of course, what’s immediately noticeable from his involvements in Wolves’ shots in the graphic above is how many attempts he takes relative to his teammates.
Cunha’s shot volume is perhaps surprising for someone who’s mainly operated out wide or in behind the striker.
For a start, Wolves don’t take a lot of shots in the first place; at 10.5 per game, they rank fourth lowest in the league this season.
Jørgen Strand Larsen – their number nine and theoretically the player supposed to be taking a lot of those shots – is only averaging 1.5 a game. Cunha averages nearly double that in open play alone (2.9).
It doesn’t sound like a staggeringly large number, but Cunha’s total shots per 90 (including those not in open play) of 3.2 is higher than the likes of Mohamed Salah, Alexander Isak (both 3.1), Danny Welbeck (3.0) and Ollie Watkins (2.8). Cunha’s 31 shots is more than twice as many as any other Wolves player.
Given his side don’t generate many chances, Cunha sometimes has to take matters into his own hands. And that’s where his ability to carry the ball at pace is extremely fruitful.
In games against Brighton and Newcastle, Cunha used his acceleration and strength to fashion a chance all on his own. In both examples he picks the ball up, races into the space behind a full-back and gets a shot away.
His ability to surge into space opens up gaps for teammates, too.
Against Southampton, he was quick to seize on a stray header from Kyle Walker-Peters, before bursting into space…
… and running at the heart of the Saints backline, then having the ability to slip in Sarabia while sprinting. The Spaniard applied the finish.
With 44.4% possession and just 307 completed passes per game (both sixth lowest in the division), Wolves have to endure a lot of pressure in games. They often rely on transitional moments to generate chances.
Cunha is a great outlet for that: 19 of his 31 shots have come in transition. Only Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo has a higher tally.
It’s not just in attack where Cunha’s ability to carry the ball forwards is useful, it’s also crucial in driving Wolves up the pitch. He leads the entire team for total carries (137), and overall carry distance (1,875m).
These aren’t just short carries, either. These are lung-busting carries upfield over long distances. Only eight players in the Premier League travel further with the ball on average per carry than Cunha (13.7m).
His carries are direct, too, with Cunha dragging his side up the pitch by almost nine metres per carry (8.9m). Just 10 players in the division carry the ball more directly on average than Cunha.
Cunha’s creativity is perhaps overlooked as well. He has created 20 chances for Wolves this season, almost double anyone else in the team. Granted, he does take most set-pieces, but his tally from open play (10) is also a high for Wolves.
In addition, the cumulative xG value of the shots Cunha’s created in open play this season puts him in some esteemed company. Only Cole Palmer (3.5), Salah (3.3) and Alex Iwobi (3.2) have accumulated more xG assisted in open play than Cunha (3.1), and there’s a decent argument to suggest he should have more than just two assists.
When O’Neil was asked about Cunha’s importance to his side after beating Southampton, the Wolves manager praised his top scorer’s impact: “He’s huge for us… he has such ability.”
O’Neil then went on to suggest that it’s out of possession where his star man still has to improve, saying: “All the work we do with him really is around being connected to the team. We work very hard with him on how important it is to be a trusted team member when we don’t have the ball.”
Given Wolves are not particularly aggressive with their press, O’Neil is probably referring to Cunha’s role in their overall team shape, and his discipline in the first line of defence.
There’s clearly room for improvement in Cunha’s duelling ability – he’s one of five Wolves players to have a duel success rate under 50%, and when he pressures an opponent he successfully wins the ball off them just 12.3% of the time, a figure that’s considerably below the league average.
It is perhaps a slight concern that someone who’s previously spent time with Atlético Madrid and Diego Simeone, as well as under Ralf Rangnick and Julian Nagelsmann at RB Leipzig – all of whom put huge emphasis on players’ roles without the ball – is still on the end of comments about his off-the-ball work.
That is potentially the only aspect of Cunha’s game that needs refining before he makes the leap to a bigger club again, but that hasn’t stopped interest bubbling. Arsenal were reportedly keen on acquiring him in the winter transfer window of 2022-23 – when Wolves ended up signing him – and with his form this season, it seems unlikely that interest will have waned.
Wolves’ first priority is to keep Cunha for the rest of the season: he is essential for their chances of Premier League survival. They are currently predicted to finish 17th by the Opta supercomputer and are given a 43.9% chance of relegation.
Cunha will have to continue to lead this team if they are to recover from a very poor start.
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