By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-03 12:18:58 | Updated at 2026-09-03 13:28:54
2 hours ago
Can Manchester United ruin Alexia Putellas’ big debut? Will Manchester City begin their title defence in style? The Opta supercomputer predicts every Matchday 1 fixture of the 2026-27 WSL season.
The Women’s Super League is back, and the competition’s new superstar is in line to get the new season up and running.
London City Lionesses host Manchester United on Friday in the 2026-27 curtain-raiser where Alexia Putellas is set for her WSL bow.
The league is bigger and better than ever, with 14 teams now involved.
Saturday sees Chelsea open their campaign against Aston Villa, while there are five games on Sunday, including champions Manchester City taking on newly promoted Birmingham City.
But, how does the Opta supercomputer see the WSL’s opening weekend panning out?
London City Lionesses vs Manchester United
London City have made waves this summer, and they have secured arguably the biggest signing in WSL history.
Two-time Ballon d’Or winner Putellas joined on a free transfer after leaving Barcelona, where she enjoyed a trophy-laden stint.
Now, Putellas will be tasked with taking on Man Utd in her first WSL game. There is also set to be a reunion for Mary Earps with her former club, with the ex-England goalkeeper having also joined London City.
Earps has played more games (188) and kept more clean sheets (63) than any other goalkeeper in WSL history. She kept the second-most clean sheets in the French top flight last season (9), although her save percentage of 62% ranked 11th among the 16 goalkeepers to feature in at least five matches.
London City were a breath of fresh air last term, setting a record points tally for a newly promoted team in a WSL campaign (27). United, meanwhile, ended the campaign winless in their last four games; never have they endured a longer winless run in the competition.
The Lionesses lost both of their WSL meetings with United last season, conceding more goals to the Red Devils (7) than any other opponent in 2025-26.
United are also under new management, with Marc Skinner replaced by Eva Olid. However, they are still seen as favourites by Opta’s model, which ranks their chances of victory at 45.7%, compared to London City’s 29.6%.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Chelsea fell short in their bid to retain the WSL title last season, but the Opta supercomputer still makes them the team to beat in 2026-27, assigning the Blues a 39.9% chance of lifting the trophy.
Sonia Bompastor’s side are expected to begin their campaign with a victory, too. The supercomputer gives Chelsea an 83.4% chance of beating Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge, compared to just 6.2% for the visitors, while the draw is rated at 10.4%.
History is firmly on Chelsea’s side. The Blues have won all 12 of their previous WSL meetings with Villa, while the only other fixture in competition history to boast a perfect record after at least 12 meetings is Chelsea’s own 13 wins from 13 against Tottenham.
Chelsea have also made a habit of starting strongly at home. Since a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal in their first-ever WSL match in 2011, they have gone unbeaten in nine successive home openers in the competition (W7 D2).
Villa, meanwhile, endured a difficult start to 2026, collecting just seven points in their 11 WSL matches played during the calendar year (W2 D1 L8). A trip to the league favourites on the opening weekend represents a daunting challenge as they look to begin the new season on a more positive note.
Tottenham Hotspur vs West Ham United
Tottenham are expected to begin the new season with a victory, with the supercomputer giving them a 53.1% chance of beating West Ham, compared to 22.9% for the Hammers, while the draw is rated at 24.0%.
Recent history also favours Spurs. They have won their opening WSL fixture in four of the last five seasons (L1), including a 1-0 victory over West Ham on Matchday 1 last term.
Tottenham have also enjoyed this fixture in recent years, winning five of their last six WSL meetings with the Hammers (L1). Indeed, against no side have Spurs won more matches in the competition than they have against West Ham (8).
West Ham’s record away to Tottenham offers little encouragement, either. They have won only one of their seven WSL visits to Spurs (D2 L4), suffering defeat in each of their last three since a 2-0 win in December 2022.
Brighton vs Arsenal
Arsenal are expected to mount another title challenge in 2026-27, with the Opta supercomputer giving the Gunners a 26.6% chance of lifting the WSL trophy. The model also backs Renée Slegers’ side to make a winning start away at Brighton.
Arsenal won 65.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, while Brighton prevailed in 16.0%. The remaining 18.7% resulted in a draw.
Since Slegers took charge of her first WSL match in October 2024, only Chelsea (100) have collected more points in the competition than Arsenal (94). The Gunners also lead the division for goals scored (111) and boast the best goal difference (+75) over that period.
Brighton have become a far tougher opponent in this fixture than they once were, though. After losing 12 consecutive matches against Arsenal between January 2020 and January 2025, the Seagulls have lost only one of their last four meetings with the Gunners in all competitions (W2 D1).
Arsenal’s recent visits to the south coast offer further encouragement for the hosts. The Gunners have failed to win on their last two WSL trips to Brighton (D1 L1), suggesting the Seagulls may be better placed than the supercomputer’s probabilities initially indicate.
Charlton Athletic vs Liverpool
WSL newcomers Charlton Athletic begin life in the top flight with a home meeting against Liverpool after edging past Leicester City on penalties in last season’s promotion/relegation play-off.
The Opta supercomputer expects a closely-fought contest, though Charlton have the edge. They win in 43.3% of simulations, compared to 30.0% for Liverpool, while the draw is assigned a 26.7% probability.
This will be the first league meeting between the sides since March 2022, when Liverpool won 1-0 away from home before a goalless draw in the reverse fixture in the Championship.
Liverpool are unbeaten against Charlton across all competitions in the WSL era (W4 D2), most recently claiming a 1-0 extra-time victory at The Valley in last season’s FA Cup quarter-final.
Crystal Palace vs Everton
Another of the promoted sides begins the new campaign at home, with Crystal Palace hosting Everton at Selhurst Park.
Palace have wasted little time adding experience to their squad, most notably with the signing of Bethany England. The striker is the WSL’s second all-time leading scorer with 89 goals, and has found the net on her league debut for two of her previous four clubs, Chelsea and Tottenham.
No player has ever scored on their WSL debut for three different teams.
England could also become just the third player to score in the competition for three different London clubs, after Gilly Flaherty and Gemma Davison.
The Opta supercomputer gives Palace the edge, with the Eagles winning 41.9% of simulations compared to Everton’s 31.4%, while the draw is assigned a 26.7% probability.
Brian Sørensen’s side were notably stronger on their travels last season. Everton won 14 of their 23 points away from home, meaning 61% of their total haul came on the road, the highest proportion of any WSL team. Indeed, they ranked sixth in the away table but only 10th at home.
Manchester City vs Birmingham City
The opening weekend concludes with a meeting between the reigning WSL champions and the Championship winners, as Manchester City host Birmingham City at the Joie Stadium.
Although City are predicted to finish second behind Chelsea this season, Andre Jeglertz’s side will be determined to begin their title defence in emphatic fashion. The Opta supercomputer certainly expects them to do so, assigning City an 81.9% chance of victory.
Birmingham win just 6.8% of simulations, while the draw comes in at 11.2%.
This is the first Matchday 1 meeting between a reigning WSL champion and newly promoted opposition since Chelsea were beaten 2-1 by Liverpool at the start of the 2022-23 season.
History strongly favours the hosts. Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Birmingham across all competitions (W10 D1), winning each of the last 10 since a League Cup draw in August 2018.
Birmingham face a daunting challenge on their return to the top flight. The Blues have won only three of their last 36 WSL matches (D8 L25), although one of those victories came in their most recent game in the competition, a 1-0 win away at Aston Villa in May 2022.
City will also be encouraged by the presence of Khadija Shaw. The Jamaica international has scored against 14 of the 15 opponents she has faced in the WSL, with Birmingham the only exception. However, Shaw has an excellent record against promoted teams, scoring seven goals in six WSL starts against such opposition.
All signs point towards a comfortable afternoon for the champions as they look to make an early statement in the title race.
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