By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-10 01:01:57 | Updated at 2026-10-10 04:46:28
3 hours ago
Key Facts
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell US$1.09, or 1.2%, to US$90.40 a barrel on Friday 9 October, and Brent futures fell US$1.37, or 1.3%, to US$102.91.
- President Donald Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterm elections, and called talks with Tehran productive.
- Petrobras’s New York shares rose 2.47% to US$25.30, while Ecopetrol was flat at US$16.94 and YPF gained 0.28% to US$50.04.
- The oil fund USO rose 0.42% to US$148.20, a different move from WTI because the fund holds futures and can diverge from the spot price on a given day.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 66.5% to WTI touching US$95 in October and 34.5% to US$100 (US$1.56 million traded, as of 8:24 pm ET, 9 October). Bets, not forecasts.
Today’s Focus
Oil prices fell on Friday 9 October after Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterm elections. WTI lost 1.2% to US$90.40 a barrel and Brent 1.3% to US$102.91.
The statement eased fears of a disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Gulf oil. Brent had settled at US$104.28 on Thursday.
For Latin America, the price cut helps importers such as Chile, but it trims revenue for exporters such as Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. Petrobras shares still rose in New York.
What matters today. Lower prices come from a political promise, not from a change in supply.
01 The session in one read
WTI closed at US$90.40, down US$1.09, and Brent at US$102.91, down US$1.37, according to La República of Colombia.
The USO fund, which holds US crude futures, closed at US$148.20, up 0.42%. A fund does not match the spot price day by day, because it holds futures contracts and rolls them over.
Petrobras rose 2.47% in New York, while the Brazilian market rose to a record. Ecopetrol closed flat and YPF gained 0.28%.
Assessment — A pause, not an end to the risk premium MEDIUM
The price fell on a statement, not on barrels. Trump’s pledge covers only the period before 3 November, so the risk premium may return.
Brent still trades above US$100, which shows that markets continue to price supply risk in the Gulf.
Follow this story
Get an email when there’s news on Markets
Free. One email a day at most, and only when there is news. This also signs you up to our weekday newsletter, The LatAm Brief. Nothing arrives until you click the confirmation link, and you can stop either with one click. Privacy policy.
02 The board
| WTI crude futures (per barrel) | US$90.40 | -1.2% |
| Brent crude futures (per barrel) | US$102.91 | -1.3% |
| Oil fund USO | US$148.20 | +0.42% |
| Petrobras | US$25.30 | +2.47% |
| Ecopetrol | US$16.94 | 0.00% |
| YPF | US$50.04 | +0.28% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-09. USO is a futures-based fund, not the spot price.
The crude prices are from La República’s close report. The RT calendar listed no US crude-stock or OPEC releases for 9 October.
Live Market IntelligenceThe live market boardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
Regional
Oct 9, 2026 · 21:57
Ibovespa · benchmark
209,066.90 +1.38%
L 167,142day rangeH 168,310
+21.85% over 12 months
Market breadth · 5 names
80% advancing
4 ▲ advancing1 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
Latin America scoreboard
IndexLastTodayStrength
IbovespaBrazil 209,066.90 +1.38%
S&P/BMV IPCMexico 65,427.71 +0.68%
S&P IPSAChile 11,044.42 +0.18%
S&P MERVALArgentina 2,828,027 -0.16%
MSCI COLCAPColombia 2,531.15 +0.21%
BVL S&P PerúPeru 59,610.00 +2.26%
Full instrument board
| IBOV | 209,066.90 | +1.38% | +21.85% | 206,220.24 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,044.42 | +0.18% | — | 11,024.22 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 65,427.71 | +0.68% | +12.17% | 64,986.91 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,828,027 | -0.16% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,531.15 | +0.21% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,610.00 | +2.26% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
Largest moves today
BVL PERÚ 59,610.00 +2.26%
USD/PYG 5,939 +1.68%
IBOV 209,066.90 +1.38%
USD/DOP 58.34 +1.25%
USD/UYU 40.27 +1.24%
EUR/BRL 5.95 +1.01%
USD/CRC 445.92 +0.89%
USD/BOB 11.64 -0.76%
The session read
The Ibovespa rose 1.38%, with breadth positive — 4 of 5 names higher. BVL PERÚ led, while MERVAL lagged.
03 What moved it: Trump’s pledge on Iran
Trump said talks with Iran were productive and that the US would not strike before the midterms, according to La República. Markets removed part of the war premium.
Diario Financiero reported that Brent briefly stabilised near US$105 earlier in the day on reports of discussions about possible US action, before the pledge. That shows how quickly prices swing on headlines.
A hurricane that disrupted US Gulf output earlier in the week is a second supply factor, but we did not find a Friday update on shut-in volumes.
04 The Latin American read
Brazil, Colombia and Mexico earn large export revenue from crude, and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale oil is growing. Chile imports most of its fuel.
Petrobras gained in New York even as crude fell, which suggests investors were reacting to the Brazilian market’s record rally.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras is Brazil’s state-controlled oil company and the region’s largest listed producer. YPF is Argentina’s main energy company, and Ecopetrol is Colombia’s.
Ecopetrol closed unchanged, while its home market had a strong peso day.
06 The outlook
Oil depends on the Iran talks, the Gulf supply picture and demand. Prediction markets see further spikes as likely: two-thirds odds of a touch of US$95 in WTI this month.
A confirmed deal would cut prices, and a breakdown would send them higher.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on what WTI will hit in October priced a touch of US$95 at 66.5%, US$100 at 34.5% and US$105 at 22.5%. It priced a dip to US$90 at 88.9% and to US$85 at 58.0%, with US$1.56 million traded (read at 8:24 pm ET on 9 October).
These are bets on whether the price touches a level at any time in the month, so both an up and a down move can pay out. They are not forecasts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Iran talks: A deal would lower prices; a breakdown would lift them.
- The 3 November midterms: Trump’s pledge covers the period before this date.
- Gulf supply: Updates on hurricane damage and shut-in output.
- Petrobras: Whether the shares keep rising if crude falls further.
Background: Oil Fund Jumps 2.6% as Isaias Shuts Gulf Output | Oil, Oct 8.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil fall on 9 October 2026?
Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, which eased supply fears. WTI fell 1.2% to US$90.40 and Brent 1.3% to US$102.91.
Why did the USO fund rise when WTI fell?
USO holds futures contracts and can differ from the spot price on a given day because of timing and contract rolls.
How does lower oil affect Latin America?
It helps importers such as Chile but lowers revenue for exporters such as Brazil, Colombia and Mexico.
What do prediction markets say about oil?
Polymarket priced a touch of US$95 for WTI in October at 66.5% as of 8:24 pm ET, 9 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Market data: RT; crude prices: La República; Brent report: Diario Financiero; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:24 pm ET, 9 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
