By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-09 21:11:44 | Updated at 2026-10-10 23:55:38
1 day ago
Economy: Argentina
Key Facts
—Who. INDEC, Argentina’s national statistics institute, and investors in Argentine assets.
—What. September consumer price inflation, forecast at 2.0% for the month after 1.7% in August.
—Where. Argentina, with relevance for US-listed Argentine shares and the peso.
—When. Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 16:00 Buenos Aires time (19:00 GMT), after a long weekend.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices 1.9% to 2.1% at 60.5%; Kalshi prices above 1.8% at 61% (9 October 2026, 4:27 pm US Eastern).
—As of. 9 October 2026, 20:27 GMT
Argentina publishes its September inflation figure on Tuesday 13 October 2026, and the calendar forecast points to a monthly reading near 2%. That would be a step up from 1.7% in August, the lowest in 14 months.
What We Know
INDEC, Argentina’s national statistics institute, is scheduled to publish September consumer prices on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 16:00 Buenos Aires time (19:00 GMT). The date comes from INDEC’s release calendar, and the time from the RT economic calendar.
Monday 12 October 2026 is a public holiday in Argentina, the Day of Respect for Cultural Diversity. The data therefore arrives right after a long weekend.
The RT calendar forecasts monthly inflation of 2.0%, against 1.7% in August. It also forecasts annual inflation of 34%.
What the Numbers Look Like
In August, INDEC reported monthly inflation of 1.7%, the lowest monthly reading since June 2025, a span of 14 months. July had come in at 2.1%.
Core inflation, which strips out the most volatile prices, was 1.8% in August. Regulated prices rose 2.2%, while seasonal prices fell 0.9%.
The biggest rise among spending groups was housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 2.8%. Education followed at 2.5%.
Cumulative inflation reached 21.3% in the first eight months of 2026. Any reading near 2.0% for September would add to that total.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
BYMA · Buenos Aires
Oct 9, 2026 · 17:38
S&P MERVAL · benchmark
2,825,172
-0.26%
L 2,991,150day rangeH 3,042,365
+30.51% over 12 months
Market breadth · 14 names
29% advancing
4 ▲ advancing10 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
Sector heatmap · average move today
Utilities
+1.27%
PAMPA, CEPU
Materials
-0.57%
ALUAR, LOMA NEGRA
Telecom
-0.70%
TELECOM ARG
Financials
-1.07%
GGAL, COME, BYMA
Technology
-2.26%
GLOBANT
Consumer Disc.
-2.40%
MIRGOR, MERCADOLIBRE
Latin America scoreboard
IndexLastTodayStrength
IbovespaBrazil
208,991.95
+1.34%
S&P/BMV IPCMexico
64,986.91
+0.52%
S&P IPSAChile
11,073.17
+0.44%
S&P MERVALArgentina
2,825,172
-0.26%
MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,536.78
+0.43%
BVL S&P PerúPeru
59,610.00
+2.19%
Full instrument board
| MERVAL | 2,825,172 | -0.26% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
Largest moves today
MERCADOLIBRE
1,870
-3.59%
TXAR
747.50
-2.35%
GLOBANT
38.10
-2.26%
CEPU
2,156
+1.84%
BYMA
275.00
-1.70%
ALUAR
938.00
-1.21%
MIRGOR
1,650
-1.20%
GGAL
6,980
-0.78%
The session read
The S&P MERVAL eased 0.26%, with breadth negative — 4 of 14 names higher. Utilities led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.
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What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the September figure will match the 2.0% forecast, because forecasts are estimates and the release can differ. The calendar projection is also not an official INDEC view.
It is also unclear which spending groups will drive the September result. Housing and education led the August rise, so they are natural groups to watch.
What It Means for US Readers and Investors
Argentine assets listed in New York, including American depositary receipts (ADRs) such as YPF, can react to inflation news. A reading above forecast could raise fresh questions about the peso.
Our earlier reports show how Argentina inflation fell to 1.7% in August after Argentina inflation ticked up to 2.1% in July. The September figure will show whether that cooling continues.
A reading near 1.7% would suggest that price growth is still slowing. A reading of 2.1% or higher would suggest that the August low was not the start of a lasting trend.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, the market “Argentina Monthly Inflation, September” (US$31,019 traded) prices 1.9% to 2.1% at 60.5%, 1.6% to 1.8% at 33.0% and 2.2% to 2.4% at 5.5%. Those prices are implied probabilities from real-money bets, read on 9 October 2026 at 4:27 pm US Eastern (20:27 GMT).
On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the market “Argentina inflation rate MoM for September” (11,105 contracts traded) prices an outcome above 1.6% at 97%, above 1.8% at 61% and above 2.0% at 11%. MoM means month on month.
Polymarket’s “Argentina Annual Inflation 2026” market puts 30.0% to 34.9% at 57.9% and 25% to 29.9% at 40.5%. These are bets, not polls, and nothing here is betting advice.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Argentina publish September inflation?
INDEC is scheduled to publish it on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 16:00 Buenos Aires time (19:00 GMT). Monday 12 October is a public holiday in Argentina.
What inflation rate is expected for September?
The RT calendar forecasts monthly inflation of 2.0%, against 1.7% in August. It forecasts annual inflation of 34%.
What did the August data show?
Monthly inflation was 1.7% in August, the lowest reading since June 2025. Core inflation was 1.8%.
What do prediction markets say about September?
On Polymarket, the 1.9% to 2.1% range is priced at 60.5%. On Kalshi, an outcome above 1.8% is priced at 61%.
