Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — September 3, 2026

The YPF tower in Buenos Aires: the state-controlled oil producer led Wednesday’s turnover as energy drove the Merval higher. (Photo: Martin Barland, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

01 The session in one read

Argentina’s Merval index rose 1.86% on Wednesday, closing at 3,106,216 points as investors continued to reward companies tied to President Javier Milei’s economic overhaul. The advance was led by banks and energy producers, the two groups most directly exposed to the promise of deregulation, fiscal discipline and a slower inflation path.

The peso, meanwhile, dipped 0.13% to 1,511 per US dollar in the wholesale market, a level that sits just 0.2% below the 52-week high of 1,514. That gradual, managed depreciation is itself part of the policy framework many investors are endorsing.

The session felt less like a dramatic shift and more like another step in a well-worn channel. Traders were adding to positions that have worked for months: big banks, utilities and oil companies, all of which would benefit from a more normal, investment-friendly Argentina.

02 The day’s numbers

The Merval’s close at 3,106,216 points keeps it within sight of the record territory it has flirted with in recent sessions. The index is up sharply over the past year, driven by the same bank and energy names that led Wednesday’s advance.

The peso at 1,511 per dollar reflects the central bank’s slow crawling peg — a policy designed to anchor expectations, even if it means the currency grinds closer to its weakest level in a year.
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03 Why it moved — the Milei reform trade in banks and energy

The advance was textbook Milei reform trade. Grupo Galicia (GGAL), a major financial group, rose 1.6%, while Banco Macro (BMA) added 0.6% — modest but telling signs that investors still see value in Argentine lenders.

Energy was equally involved. YPF, the state-controlled oil and gas producer, gained 2.8%; Pampa Energía (PAMP), a major utility, rose 2.3%; and Central Puerto (CEPU), a power generator, added 2.5%. These are companies whose fortunes would improve markedly under deregulation and greater export potential.

The backdrop includes a lower country-risk measure — Reuters reported in May that Argentina’s sovereign risk had fallen to 498 points, or 4.98 percent,, far below 2025 levels. That gauge, which measures how expensive it is for the government to borrow relative to US Treasuries, is not a daily number, but the direction helps explain why Argentine assets keep finding buyers.

04 The day’s movers

The most-traded board tells a clear story: energy and financials dominated turnover and gains. YPF’s $10 million in traded volume led the market, confirming that foreign and local desks alike see the oil producer as a core holding for a reform-driven Argentina.

The biggest percentage gainers were concentrated in utilities and agribusiness — Edenor and Cresud both up 4.3% — a sign that the rally is broadening beyond the mega-cap names. That breadth is often a healthier signal than a narrow, single-stock surge.

05 The regional scoreboard

Argentina’s Merval outperformed most of its regional peers except Brazil, where the Ibovespa surged 3.05% — likely driven by local rate-cut expectations and improved sentiment toward Brazilian assets.

Mexico’s IPC was up a more modest 0.49%, while Colombia’s COLCAP rose 0.77% and Peru’s BVL added 0.34%. The broadly positive tone across Latin America provided a supportive backdrop for Wednesday’s gains in Buenos Aires.

06 The technical picture

The Merval’s close at 3,106,216 points leaves it close to the recent peak area, and the index has repeatedly found buyers on dips throughout the reform-driven rally. There is no sign of a technical break in the uptrend, but the pace has moderated in recent sessions.

The peso at 1,511 is within touching distance of the 52-week high of 1,514, which for locals is a key technical and psychological level. A break beyond it — if policymakers allowed the crawl to accelerate — would test the carefully managed expectations that underpin the rally in Argentine stocks.

For traders watching the dollar-peso pair, the 1,514 level is the line in the sand. So long as the crawl remains slow and predictable, the reform trade should retain its footing.

07 What to watch

• Peso crawl pace: Whether the central bank hints at faster daily depreciation — a break above 1,514 would test confidence.
• Bank and energy flows: If Grupo Galicia and YPF lose momentum, the broader Merval rally could stall.
• US Treasury yields: The 10-year at 4.784% is a global anchor — a sharp move could hit emerging-market appetite.
• Country-risk trajectory: Any fresh improvement in sovereign risk would reinforce the case for Argentine stocks.

Background: Argentina Markets Week: Wholesale Peso Crosses 1,500 as Stocks Rise.

Background: Argentina Rolls Over 96 Percent of Maturing Debt as Country Risk Eases to 509.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Merval?

It’s the main stock index in Buenos Aires, tracking the largest and most traded Argentine companies listed on the local exchange.

Why did the Merval rise on September 2?

Investors bought banks and energy companies tied to President Milei’s deregulation and fiscal-tightening agenda — the ‘reform trade’.

What does USD/ARS at 1,511 mean?

One US dollar buys 1,511 Argentine pesos in the wholesale market. The peso is close to its weakest level of the past year.

Is the rally sustainable?

Technically the Merval is near its recent peak, but the trade depends on the central bank keeping the peso’s crawl slow and predictable.

Merval — Market data: RT; exchange figures from BYMA

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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