Brazil Ibovespa Rises Over 1% in Election Week as Banks Lead and the Real Firms

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MARKETS · BRAZIL

The Brazil Ibovespa rose more than 1% on Wednesday 30 September, four days before the first round of the presidential election. Banks and Petrobras led, while the dollar slipped towards R$5.18 per dollar.

At about 14:05 Brasília time (17:05 UTC) the index stood at 186,618 points, up 1.52%, according to g1 market data. InfoMoney reported the index up about 1% at 13:40. The official close comes after 17:00 and was not available at the time of writing.

Downtown São Paulo seen from the Vale do Anhangabaú, the historic centre where the B3 exchange has its headquarters. (Photo: Wilfredor, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons)

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Banks and Petrobras carry the index

Valor put the index at 185,738 points around 13:00, up 1.04%, after a range of 183,880 to 186,809. Projected turnover was R$24.6 billion (about US$4.7 billion).

Itaú preferred shares were up 3.90% and Bradesco preferred shares 2.76% at that point, Valor reported. Banco do Brasil gained 2.31% and BTG Pactual units 1.25%.

Petrobras added to the rise in the morning, with its preferred shares up 0.47% around 10:42, Exame reported. US crude was 2.29% higher at US$91.43 a barrel that morning.

Not every stock joined in. Homebuilder Tenda fell 5.23% after J.P. Morgan said its management sounded more cautious about the third quarter, citing tighter lending by state bank Caixa.

Ibovespa daily closes from 22 to 29 September 2026 and the intraday level at about 14:05 Brasília time on 30 September (not the close; the official close comes after 17:00). Source: B3 closing levels via InfoMoney; intraday via g1, 30 Sep 2026.

Wednesday’s move follows a four-session slide. The index closed at 187,423 points on 22 September and fell to 182,991 by 28 September. It rebounded 0.46% on Tuesday, as Brazil Ibovespa Ends Four-Day Slide at 183,828 Points Before the Election reported.

A softer US inflation reading did much of the work

The main trigger came from Washington. The PCE price index, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.4% in the year to August, below the 3.7% expected.

That raised bets that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its meeting at the end of October, Valor and InfoMoney reported. Wall Street’s Nasdaq was up about 1% at midday.

The real followed. The dollar traded at R$5.185 per dollar around 13:00, down 0.59%, after touching R$5.163, InfoMoney reported.

g1 showed R$5.179 per dollar, down 0.74%, at about 14:05. The central bank’s PTAX reference rate closed at R$5.1809. On Tuesday the currency closed at R$5.217, and on Monday at R$5.225 per dollar.

The election trade cuts both ways

Some traders tied part of the rally to polls showing an edge for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro over President Lula, Valor reported. The polls themselves remain tight and point in different directions.

A Quaest survey published on Monday had Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro at 34% in the first round, g1 reported. They tied at 42% in a runoff. Regional polls such as Rio Grande do Sul Poll Puts Flávio Bolsonaro Three Points Ahead of Lula add to the uncertainty.

HSBC sees up to 35% upside for Brazilian shares if the result strengthens expectations of fiscal consolidation, Valor reported. Without that prospect, the bank sees room for a 12% fall.

The fiscal backdrop is part of the debate. The consolidated public sector ran a primary deficit of R$10 billion (about US$1.9 billion) in August, central bank data showed.

Gross public debt rose to 82.9% of GDP from 82.6%, InfoMoney reported. High borrowing costs also weigh on companies, as Brazil Corporate Debt Costs Near 24% as Moody’s Warns of a 2027 Squeeze showed.

What Is Not Yet Known

The official Brazil Ibovespa close for 30 September was not available at publication. Intraday gains can shrink or widen in the final hours of trading.

It is also unclear how far prices already reflect Sunday’s outcome. HSBC expects any first reaction to fade until the next government’s cabinet and fiscal plans become clearer.

More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Sources: g1, market report and data, 30 September 2026; Valor Econômico, Ibovespa report, updated 13:15, 30 September 2026; InfoMoney, live market coverage, 30 September 2026 and closing reports 22–29 September; Exame, Ibovespa report, 30 September 2026; Times Brasil, bank shares report, 30 September 2026. Conversions at R$5.22 per dollar (30 September).