Arsenal vs Man Utd Prediction: FA Cup Third Round

We look ahead to Sunday’s FA Cup third-round tie at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal and Manchester United prediction and preview. Which of these heavyweights will advance to the fourth round?

Arsenal vs Man Utd Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal a 71.4% chance of beating Manchester United, who are assigned just a 12.2% chance of victory within 90 minutes.
• Man Utd have eliminated Arsenal from the FA Cup more often than any other club (eight times), but the Gunners have knocked out the Red Devils more than any other team (seven).
• Gabriel Jesus has six goals in his last six games, though he has only netted once in 14 career appearances against Man United for both Manchester City and Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal reign has been, on the face of it, an undoubted success.

Just over five years after taking the reins, Arteta has transformed the Gunners’ squad and reconnected fans and players at the Emirates Stadium. If not for the brilliance of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, he might have two Premier League titles to show for it.

However, 2020’s FA Cup success remains Arteta’s only major trophy at the helm, and Tuesday’s 2-0 League Cup semi-final loss to Newcastle United amplified dissenting voices.

With the Gunners now facing a daunting task in that competition, the FA Cup could be their best shot at silverware this season. They face a tough assignment on third-round weekend, with holders Manchester United visiting the Emirates fresh from a morale-boosting 2-2 draw at Liverpool last week.

For all Arteta’s talk about the impact of the ‘tricky’ Puma-manufactured balls used in the League Cup, he will know Arsenal’s finishing was well below-par last time out, and not for the first time.

The Gunners fired off 23 shots without success in Tuesday’s game, their second-most in a single game without scoring under Arteta, after they recorded 30 in a Premier League defeat to West Ham in December 2023.

Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz and Jurriën Timber all missed glaring chances against the Magpies, as Arsenal tallied 3.09 expected goals (xG) but only hit the target three times.

Arsenal’s attacking struggles – at least from open play – have been a theme of the season. Across all competitions, they have averaged 1.37 goals from open play per 90 minutes this term, from an average of 1.26 xG per game. Both of those figures are down on 2023-24, when the Gunners scored 1.46 goals per game from open play, averaging 1.32 xG.

They average over two shots fewer from open play when compared to last season (10 per game to 12.1), while their per-shot xG in 2024-25 stands at 0.11 when set-pieces are excluded, compared to 0.13 xG last term.

Arteta insisted last month he was flattered by comparisons between his team and the Stoke City side famed for their reliance on dead balls under Tony Pulis, but deep down, he cannot be satisfied by their stagnation in open play.

If they are to turn things around this weekend, Gabriel Jesus could have a major role to play. He has scored six goals in his last six appearances across all competitions, having only netted once in his first 20 outings in 2024-25.

Only Havertz (12) and Bukayo Saka (nine) have scored more goals than Jesus among Arsenal players this season, with the former having played almost 1,000 minutes more than the Brazilian (2,111 to 1,164).

However, Jesus has only scored once in 14 career appearances against Man Utd. He only averages more minutes per goal against Newcastle (769) and Southampton (745) than he does against the Red Devils (577).

Arsenal’s task will be made more difficult by the continued absence of Saka, while Ben White, Ethan Nwaneri and Takehiro Tomiyasu are also not ready to return.

United, meanwhile, fought back from 2-1 down to draw 2-2 at Liverpool last time out, and if not for a big stoppage-time miss from Harry Maguire, they could have earned a famous win.

Things have been far from smooth for the Red Devils under Ruben Amorim, but they retain the star quality to cause problems, particularly to opponents who allow them space to play on the break.

Captain Bruno Fernandes encapsulates that better than anyone, and he looked back to his best at Anfield, having served a one-match ban for his red card at Wolves on Boxing Day. He created four chances in Sunday’s game, at least twice as many as any other player on the pitch (Mohamed Salah, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister and Andy Robertson created two each).

That is the most created by a United player in a Premier League match at Anfield since Opta records began in 2003-04 and included an assist for Lisandro Martínez‘s opener.

Only Cole Palmer (57) and Anthony Gordon (47) have bettered Fernandes’ total of 43 chances created in the Premier League this season. His creativity has waned somewhat, though, with his figure of 1.8 open-play chances created per 90 minutes in Premier League action his worst in any campaign since 2019-20 (1.7).

If Amorim has now found a way to unlock the Portugal international, who has cut a frustrated figure for much of the campaign and been sent off three times already, then dreams of another run to Wembley could become a reality for United.

They continue to battle a lengthy injury list, with Mason Mount, Victor Lindelöf and Luke Shaw out, while Marcus Rashford was ill last weekend but could return here.

Arsenal vs Man Utd Head-to-Head

This will be the 16th different FA Cup tie – excluding replays or second legs – between Arsenal and United, the second-most of any fixture in the competition’s history behind Liverpool versus Everton (19 ties).

It will, however, be the first time the FA Cup’s two most successful clubs (Arsenal 14 titles, United 13) have met in the third round of the competition.

Sunday’s game will make Arsenal versus United the seventh different fixture in FA Cup history to be played in each of the six rounds available to top-flight clubs (third round to final), after Arsenal against Chelsea, Chelsea versus Liverpool, Chelsea versus United, Chelsea against Tottenham, Liverpool versus United and United against Southampton.

Arsenal have been eliminated in the third round of the FA Cup twice in the last three years, having previously only fallen at this hurdle once in 25 seasons.

United, meanwhile, have eliminated Arsenal from the FA Cup on more occasions than any other club (eight times), though the Gunners have also knocked out the Red Devils more than any other team (seven).

The teams last faced off in the Premier League in early December, with Timber and William Saliba scoring as Arsenal made their set-piece prowess count in a 2-0 home success.

Arsenal vs Man Utd Prediction

The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal heavy favourites to advance, giving the Gunners a huge 71.4% chance of victory inside 90 minutes.

United only won 12.2% of our pre-match simulations, while 16.3% finished level. With FA Cup replays now history, a draw would send the tie to extra time and potentially penalties.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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