By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-03-13 13:16:51 | Updated at 2025-03-13 16:53:58
3 hours ago
Arsenal face a huge challenge in their UEFA Champions League quarter-final against Real Madrid, but a lacklustre showing against Atlético showed the reigning champions have their flaws.
Arsenal fans keeping an eye on the action in Madrid last night will have found themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Their convincing first-leg win over PSV Eindhoven all but guaranteed a spot in the Champions League quarter-finals, meaning they knew before kick-off they would face either Real Madrid or Atlético Madrid in the next round. It’s fair to say neither looked like a great option.
Madrid are the kings of this competition, winning it more than twice as many times (15) as any other team – and Atlético, while never having won it themselves, have gone deep several times under Diego Simeone, and are capable of grinding out a result against anyone on their day.
In the end, Madrid prevailed (of course they did), but they needed penalties to overcome their rivals and a fair old slice of fortune in the form of a controversial call to rule out Julián Alvarez’s penalty on what it’s only fair to call questionable video evidence suggesting the Argentine touched the ball twice.
But they got through, and ultimately that’s all that matters. Their quest to defend their crown goes on.
Many of an Arsenal persuasion would probably have rather avoided playing the reigning champions if possible, but there’s also reason to suggest that, based on their unconvincing performance at Atlético, there’s less reason to fear them than their trophy cabinet might suggest.
Having gone to the Bernabéu a week earlier and kept hold of the ball far more than many would expect of a Simeone side, Atlético then sat back at home to defend their lead on the night in the second leg, having taken just 27 seconds to score their earliest-ever Champions League goal. They frustrated Madrid with an impressively resolute defensive display, and in doing so handed Arsenal a blueprint for beating the European champions.
Madrid managed just six shots in normal time, and one of them was a penalty. Their total of 0.21 non-penalty xG (inside 90 minutes) was their third-lowest in any Champions League or La Liga game in the last 10 years. Even after 30 minutes of extra-time, they had still only managed 0.36 xG despite spending all but the opening 27 seconds chasing a goal.
They arguably have the best front four in world football, but Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo created next to nothing, unable to break down Atlético’s low block.
Rodrygo was the only one who managed a shot on target, and he did so with a hopeful effort worth just 0.03 xG. Mbappé made a crucial contribution by winning the penalty that Vinícius missed, brought down by a desperate Clément Lenglet, but he also didn’t manage a single shot. It was only the second game for either Real Madrid or PSG since September 2021 in which the Frenchman has failed to have even one shot when playing the full 90 minutes. And this time he played 120 minutes. Atlético did a remarkable job of containing Madrid’s fearsome front line.
They blocked the centre of the pitch exceptionally, with one of their wide midfielders joining the back four to make a five depending on which side of the pitch Madrid had the ball. The wide midfielder on the side where the ball was moved out to press, meanwhile, and as Madrid moved the ball from side to side, the Atlético defence moved back and forth like a pendulum.
They worked relentlessly and (almost) faultlessly and kept Madrid (almost) completely silent. The visitors managed just 22.3% of their attacking touches through the middle third of the pitch as they played across the pitch with little threat on the Atlético goal.
The only occasion when Atlético slipped up was when they allowed Madrid out of defence too quickly and Mbappé ran through to win the penalty. Vinícius’ miss was the only bit of luck Atlético relied on all night.
When they did attack, they focused on transitions down their right, possibly with the defensive flaws of Ferland Mendy, who was shaky all game, in mind. They had 54.1% of their attacking touches down that flank, and the only goal of the game came from a cross from that side.
Mikel Arteta isn’t afraid of taking a defence-first approach, and his Arsenal side have an exceptional defensive record. They have conceded the lowest xG both in the Premier League (24.6 xG) and in the Champions League (8.8 xG) this season, while they have conceded fewer goals than any other team in the English top flight (24) and rank second to Inter (2) in Europe’s main competition (6).
They also have a rather good right-sided attacker who they already rely on and will be hoping to have back from a serious hamstring injury in time for the first leg against Madrid in early April. Bukayo Saka’s “progress [in his recovery] is really good,” Arteta said at the weekend. “We are positive that in a few weeks hopefully he will be back.”
Arsenal have been lacking in firepower in the weeks without Saka or Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, who are both out for the season, so it would probably suit them to focus on blocking up the middle of the pitch and keeping their opponents out.
Centre-backs Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba are both brilliant footballers, but they are also happy to do the dirty work. Jurriën Timber, Riccardo Calafiori and Myles Lewis-Skelly are all physical beasts who are ready to work hard and fight for a clean sheet, while also being very, very good on the ball.
As a result, any Arsenal fans with their glass half full might well be able to see the positives in Madrid being their quarter-final opponent. It might actually be the case that Arsenal are more suited to facing Madrid than they would have been a defensively resolute Atlético. The Opta supercomputer even makes them slight favourites to win the tie, given a 52.8% chance.
Of course, all this doesn’t take into account the intangibles that Madrid are able to call upon in this competition. Things seem to fall into place for them more often than they do for others, and they ride their luck almost unbelievably at times. They have done so for years. Their logic-defying Champions League exploits is a topic we have discussed previously on these pages. They consistently win games – and titles – despite the numbers suggesting they shouldn’t.
Their latest triumph showed how they can struggle to break down a low block, but it also displayed perfectly the impossible-to-explain element of Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid. They win games that they shouldn’t, and which most other teams would not.
With that in mind, Arsenal may not be too pleased about facing them. The Premier League side have little pedigree in the Champions League, and that could be a crucial factor in this quarter-final match-up.
But in defeat to Atlético on Tuesday night, the reigning European champions did at least show they are far from infallible. And with Atlético’s blueprint in mind, Arsenal can certainly go into the tie with some hope.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
