By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-09-08 08:16:44 | Updated at 2026-10-02 18:09:39
3 weeks ago
Key Facts
- B3 reopens on Tuesday after Independence Day, with the Ibovespa last at 185,147.15 points.
- Friday delivered the best week since January, a gain of 5.40% that leaves the index up 14.91% for the year.
- The real closed at about 5.13 per dollar, with the official PTAX rate at 5.1247 and no Brazilian price discovery since.
- The Selic stands at 14.00% after a fourth straight quarter-point cut on August 5, decided unanimously.
- Copom meets on September 15 and 16, and the market is split between another cut and a pause.
- Runoff polling is inside the margin of error, with three pollsters splitting between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro.
Today’s Focus
Brazil returns from a long weekend into a changed global backdrop. The Ibovespa last traded on Friday at 185,147.15 points, essentially flat on the day.
The week itself was strong. The index rose 5.40%, its best week since January 23.
What changed while Sao Paulo was closed is the rate outlook abroad. Markets now price roughly a 60% chance that the United States Federal Reserve raises rates on September 16.
What matters today. The delayed Focus survey lands at 08:25, and it is the last read on Copom expectations before next week’s decision.
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01 The setup in one read
B3 was shut on Monday for Independence Day, and New York was shut for Labour Day. That means two sessions of global news arrive at once.
The news is mixed. Oil is up sharply, copper set a record, and the Federal Reserve is now being priced for a rise rather than a cut.
For Brazil that is a split signal. Higher commodity prices help Petrobras and Vale, while a hiking Federal Reserve narrows the real’s rate advantage.
The domestic picture is the steadier half. Growth is running at 2.0% over the year, unemployment is at a record low of 5.3%, and inflation is 4.44%.
Assessment — A strong week meets a harder world MEDIUM
Brazil closed its best week since January and reopens into a global tightening scare. The domestic case is intact, with a record-low jobless rate and an easing cycle that has already delivered four cuts. The external case has weakened, because a Federal Reserve that hikes on September 16 lifts the floor under global funding costs the day before Copom meets. The variable to watch is Friday’s August inflation print, which the IPCA-15 preview suggests will be negative.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Ibovespa | 185,147.15 | −0.02% | Friday close; up 5.40% on the week |
| USD/BRL, PTAX | 5.1247 | +0.50% | Friday close; down 1.27% on the week |
| Selic | 14.00% | −25bp on Aug 5 | Fourth straight cut, decided unanimously |
| Petrobras ADR (PBR) | US$20.12 | −1.90% | Friday close in New York |
| Vale ADR | US$15.27 | −0.26% | Iron ore has since topped US$100 |
| Itau ADR (ITUB) | US$8.15 | −0.85% | Banking wage deal signed for private banks |
| Embraer ADR (ERJ) | US$73.81 | +0.27% | New ANA Holdings order on Friday |
There was no Monday price for the real. With both Sao Paulo and New York shut, the roughly 5.126 quote carried over from Friday.
The Ibovespa sits about 7% below its record close of 199,043.97, set on April 14. It is up 14.91% so far this year.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
B3 · pre-open setup
Sep 8, 2026 · 04:54
Ibovespa · benchmark
185,147.15 -0.02%
L 167,142day rangeH 168,310
+21.85% over 12 months
Market breadth · 33 names
52% advancing
17 ▲ advancing16 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
Sector heatmap · average move today
Materials
+1.58%
SUZB3, KLABIN
Mining
+1.16%
VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4
Other
+0.76%
BRENT, WTI, IRON ORE, GOLD
Industrials
+0.20%
WEGE3, RENT3
Financials
-0.10%
ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3
Energy
-0.12%
PETR4, PRIO3
Consumer Staples
-0.25%
SLCE3, ABEV3
Consumer Disc.
-1.98%
AZZA3, LREN3
Latin America scoreboard
IndexLastTodayStrength
IbovespaBrazil 185,147.15 -0.02%
S&P/BMV IPCMexico 64,639.55 -0.35%
S&P IPSAChile 11,315.26 -1.14%
S&P MERVALArgentina 3,034,599 -0.48%
MSCI COLCAPColombia 2,565.50 +0.82%
BVL S&P PerúPeru 59,789.81 -0.28%
Full instrument board
| IBOV | 185,147.15 | -0.02% | +21.85% | 185,188.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
Largest moves today
CORN 480.50 +10.02%
COFFEE 317.25 -5.51%
WHEAT 655.00 +3.93%
BEEF 223.60 -3.93%
SOY 1,184 +3.20%
COCOA 5,719 +3.18%
CATTLE 339.10 -3.16%
AZZA3 15.89 -2.63%
The session read
The Ibovespa eased 0.02%, with breadth positive — 17 of 33 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.
03 On the B3 radar today
The delayed Focus survey is the first event, at 08:25. It was pushed from Monday by the holiday.
The last edition, published August 31, put 2026 inflation at 5.01% and growth at 1.92%. It saw the Selic ending the year at 13.75% and the dollar at 5.20 reais.
The wholesale inflation index, IGP-DI, is released at 07:00. The July reading was a fall of 0.86%.
Vehicle data follows at 09:00. Production rose 3.1% in July and sales 2.6%.
Abroad, Chile decides on rates at 17:00 with a hold at 4.50% expected. Chinese consumer and producer prices arrive at 21:30, with forecasts of 0.9% and 3.6%.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Selic was cut by a quarter point on August 5, to 14.00%. The vote was unanimous and it was the fourth consecutive reduction.
The easing cycle began in March from 15.00%. The central bank left the door open for September without committing.
Inflation is cooperating. Consumer prices rose 0.07% in July and 4.44% over twelve months, and the August preview showed a fall of 0.40%.
Growth held up better than expected. Output rose 0.5% in the second quarter and 2.0% over the year, led by agriculture at 2.8%.
The labour market is the strongest part. Unemployment fell to 5.3% in the quarter to July, a record low in the series, with 103.3 million people in work.
05 Corporate and fiscal stories to watch
Embraer had Friday’s clearest news. ANA Holdings of Japan ordered eight more E190-E2 jets, lifting its commitment to 23 firm orders and five options.
The company’s second-quarter backlog reached a record US$34.5 billion, up 16% from a year earlier. First deliveries under the new order are due in 2028.
Banco Master remains the sector’s open wound. The central bank ordered the liquidation of asset managers tied to the group, including Reag Investimentos.
Bank workers settled in part. Private-bank and Banco do Brasil staff accepted the Fenaban offer, while Caixa employees rejected it and strike from September 10.
On the fiscal side, the 2027 budget bill reached Congress on August 31. It targets a primary surplus of 18.6 billion reais, or 0.13% of output, with total primary spending of 2.83 trillion.
06 The levels to watch at the open
Gross general government debt reached 82.5% of output in July, or 10.9 trillion reais. That is 3.9 percentage points higher than in January.
The primary balance did improve. July showed a surplus of 1.4 billion reais, against a deficit of 66.6 billion a year earlier.
The twelve-month position is still negative, at 89.3 billion reais or 0.67% of output. That gap is the market’s central complaint.
On the political side, the October election is now the dominant risk. Datafolha put the runoff at 46% for Lula and 44% for Flavio Bolsonaro, Quaest had it tied at 41%, and PoderData had Flavio one point ahead.
All three sit inside the margin of error. That, rather than any single poll, is the market-relevant fact.
07 What to watch
- 08:25, the Focus survey: The first since the holiday. Any move in the year-end Selic call from 13.75% will set expectations for next week.
- Copom on September 15 and 16: The market is split between a fifth cut and a pause. The Federal Reserve decides the following day.
- Friday’s IPCA: The August reading is released at 09:00. The IPCA-15 preview showed deflation of 0.40%.
- Commodity names: Iron ore is back above US$100 and Brent above US$98. Vale and Petrobras should carry the open.
- The Caixa strike: Workers walk out from September 10. Branch services are affected, digital channels are not.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why was B3 closed on Monday?
September 7 is Brazilian Independence Day. New York was also shut, for Labour Day, so there was no price discovery for the real either.
What is the Selic rate today?
It stands at 14.00%, after a unanimous quarter-point cut on August 5. That was the fourth consecutive reduction in the cycle that began in March.
When does Copom next meet?
On September 15 and 16. The market is split between another quarter-point cut and a pause.
Where is Brazilian inflation?
Consumer prices rose 4.44% in the year to July. The August preview showed a monthly fall of 0.40%, and the full August reading arrives on Friday.
Ibovespa — Market data: RT; policy figures from Banco Central do Brasil
Daily series
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