Brazil’s Fintechs Lose Up to 8.6% in a Week as XP Breaks From the Pack

Brazil · Markets

A downgrade, a rate hike in Washington and higher oil prices knocked Brazil’s listed digital lenders. The one fintech that gained this week does not live mainly on consumer credit.

The Sao Paulo exchange. Brazil’s listed fintechs fell through the week of the Fed hike (Photo: Rafael Matsunaga, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons)

Brazil’s New York-listed fintechs had what Finsiders Brasil called a week of terror, from 14 to 18 September. Measured from Monday’s open, six of the seven shares fell 2.55% to 8.57%, while XP rose 4%.

Seven Stocks, One Direction

PicPay had the worst week, falling 8.57% to US$9.28, according to Finsiders Brasil. The site found no company-specific news behind that fall.

PagBank lost 7.12% to US$9.26, Agibank 5.72% to US$6.18 and Nubank 4.55% to US$13.65. Stone fell 3.93% to US$9.53, and Inter lost the least, at 2.55% to US$5.35.

Finsiders measured these moves from Monday’s opening price to Friday’s close. Measured from the previous Friday’s close, all six fell further, and XP rose only about 0.8%.

What Xp does. XP Inc. engages in the provision of financial products and services in Brazil. It operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual, hedge, and private equity funds; derivatives and synthetic instruments; credit cards; loan operations/collateralized credit…

The Downgrade That Set the Tone

On Wednesday 16 September, Itaú BBA cut Nubank from outperform to market perform, InfoMoney reported. It lowered its New York price target to US$18 for end-2027, from US$20 before.

The bank said Nubank remains a long-term winner, but that profit growth should slow in 2027. It cited a tougher environment for Brazilian consumers and fewer fiscal and social stimulus measures.

Itaú BBA also flagged possible central bank curbs on high-cost household credit, according to Seu Dinheiro. It cut its 2027 profit estimate for Nubank by 8%, to about 15% below market consensus.

“The medium-term scenario is becoming more challenging and we are taking a pause as a precaution,” the bank wrote, per Seu Dinheiro. Nubank shares had already lost 1.44% on Monday and 1.53% on Tuesday before falling 2.68% on Wednesday, Finsiders said.

Why PagBank, Stone and PicPay Fell Too

No comparable research note hit the payments companies this week. Finsiders described the PagBank sell-off as broad selling in the sector, plus profit-taking after earlier gains.

PagBank dropped 1.88% on Monday, 3.12% on Tuesday and 1.56% on Wednesday, the site reported. Stone’s losses were concentrated on Monday and Tuesday, with no major company news, it added.

Finsiders linked the fall to investors leaving growth stocks when rates rise, and to funding costs. Credit quality also weighed, with Nubank’s loans more than 90 days overdue at 6.9% in June.

How XP Broke Away

XP closed the week at US$20.01, up US$0.77 from its level at the start of the week. Finsiders attributed the gain to a business mix less dependent on consumer lending.

XP earns fees from brokerage, capital markets, asset management and large clients, as well as from loans. It reported adjusted second-quarter profit of R$1.4 billion (about US$271 million), up 5%.

The same Itaú BBA note that cut Nubank also said it preferred capital-markets names, including XP, InfoMoney reported. XP has completed one R$1 billion (about US$194 million) buyback and is running a second of the same size.

The Fed Hike and the Copom Cut

The US Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4% on 16 September. The vote was 12 to 0, according to the Fed statement.

It was the first US rate increase in three years, InfoMoney noted. Brazil’s Copom cut the Selic rate by a quarter point to 13.75% the same evening, its fifth consecutive cut.

The two moves narrow the gap between Brazilian and US rates, which tends to weaken the real. Higher US yields also make future profits of fast-growing lenders worth less in today’s money.

The Ibovespa, Vale and Petrobras

The Ibovespa closed Friday at 185,229.17 points, down 0.41% on the day and 1.06% on the week. It was the index’s first weekly loss after four straight weekly gains, InfoMoney reported.

Vale fell 3.90% on the week and Petrobras preferred shares 2.39%, according to Ativa Investimentos, cited by Investidor10. The analysts linked the weakness to lower oil prices and concerns about the iron ore market.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones lost 1.70% on the week, while the Nasdaq gained, Investidor10 reported. The S&P 500 ended almost flat, down 0.1%, according to Finsiders.

Magazine Luiza and the Bolsa Família Question

Magazine Luiza led the Ibovespa on Wednesday 16 September with a 6.64% gain, InfoMoney reported. Wholesaler Assaí gained 4.66%, as interest-rate futures fell along most of the curve.

Lula’s government announced the 15% Bolsa Família increase the following day, 17 September. The minimum payment rises from R$600 (about US$116) to R$691 (about US$134), with the new amounts paid from 19 October.

Marcos Praça of ZERO Markets Brasil told Estadão that Magalu could gain from stronger low-income consumption. But is sensitive to credit and rates.

J.P. Morgan named Grupo Mateus, Pague Menos and Assaí as the main listed beneficiaries, Seu Dinheiro reported.

Foreign Money and the Real

Foreign investors withdrew a net R$964 million (about US$187 million) from B3 shares on 16 September alone, Valor reported from B3 data. That left the September balance positive at about R$6.2 billion (US$1.2 billion) and the year’s balance at R$24.5 billion (US$4.75 billion).

The dollar closed Friday at R$5.144, up 0.11%, and gained 0.37% over the week, according to Exame. The central bank’s PTAX selling rate for 18 September was R$5.1575, the rate used for all conversions here.

What It Means If You Hold Brazilian Fintech Shares

The week showed how closely these stocks now trade as one group. A downgrade of one name and a US rate hike moved nearly all of them.

Investors in Nubank should note that Itaú BBA’s case rests on 2027 profit growth, not on near-term defaults. Its US$18 target still sat about 27% above the prior close when it was issued, Seu Dinheiro said.

Holders of payment firms such as PagBank and Stone face a different test, which is funding costs as US yields rise. For Brazilian residents buying through BDRs, a weaker real partly offsets dollar losses on the underlying shares.

What Is Not Yet Known

It is not clear what macroprudential measures the central bank might take on high-cost household credit. Itaú BBA itself said there are few details on what could be implemented.

The Copom did not signal its next step, and market forecasts for further cuts diverge. The first round of the presidential election on 4 October adds a further source of volatility for these stocks.

Whether the Bolsa Família increase lifts retail sales enough to offset fiscal worries remains untested. Payments at the new level only begin on 19 October, after the first round.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources: Finsiders Brasil, weekly performance of Brazilian fintechs in New York, InfoMoney, Itaú BBA downgrades Nubank, Seu Dinheiro, details of the Itaú BBA note on Nubank, Federal Reserve, FOMC statement of 16 September 2026, InfoMoney, Ibovespa close on 18 September, Investidor10, Vale and Petrobras weekly losses, Valor, foreign flows on B3 on 16 September, Estadão E-Investidor, listed stocks and the Bolsa Família increase