Brazil Watches as US Clears Russian Diesel to April 7

By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-10 13:17:20 | Updated at 2026-10-10 14:11:43 1 hour ago

Lorries on the BR-116 federal highway in Brazil

ENERGY · BRAZIL

Key Facts

—The country Brazil pumps more crude than it uses but still buys a quarter or more of its diesel abroad, mostly from Russia and the United States.
—Why it matters Diesel moves Brazilian grain, beef and freight. Its price feeds inflation and the soybean and corn costs US buyers and rivals watch.
—Why now US diesel costs about US$2.49 a gallon more than a year ago, after the Middle East conflict and damage to Russian refineries.
—What happened On Friday 9 October the US Treasury issued General License 135, allowing trade in Russian diesel until 7 April 2027, after a Trump–Putin call.
—The numbers Trump named 300,000 tonnes now, 500,000 in November, 1 million next, and possibly 3 million more.
—What it means for you More supply could ease diesel costs in both countries. Traders and banks now have legal cover for such deals.
—Still open Whether Russian refineries can deliver the volumes, and where the cargoes actually go.
—Prediction markets Polymarket gives a US diesel export ban by 31 October about a 2% chance (10 October, 8:13 a.m. ET).

The United States on Friday opened the door to Russian diesel for the American and global market. Brazil’s fuel importers say the move could ease prices at home. The Treasury’s sanctions office issued a licence covering the sale, delivery and import of Russian diesel until 7 April 2027. For US readers, it matters twice. Brazil competes with US farmers on soybeans and corn. It also now buys most of its imported diesel from US refiners.

The licence followed a phone call between President Donald Trump, the Republican US leader, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump announced the arrangement on Truth Social at 2:46 p.m. ET on Friday 9 October.

“Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace,” he wrote. He promised a further 500,000 tonnes in November and 1,000,000 tonnes “immediately thereafter.” Depending on the state of Russia’s refineries, another 3,000,000 tonnes would follow “within a short period of time.”

What the US Licence Allows

The document is Russia-related General License 135 from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Treasury unit that enforces US sanctions. Its director, Bradley T. Smith, signed it on Friday afternoon.

It authorises transactions “related to the sale, delivery, offloading, or importation, including importation into the United States, of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin.” The permission runs until 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on Wednesday 7 April 2027.

There is one limit. The licence does not allow any debit to US bank accounts held by Russia’s central bank, its National Wealth Fund or its finance ministry. Other Russia sanctions stay in place.

Moscow confirmed the outline. In a statement published by the Kremlin, Putin said “the Russian side confirmed its willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the US market and global markets at large.” His aide Yury Ushakov said the call took place late on 9 October and lasted an hour and a half.

300,000, 500,000, 1 million and 3 million tonnes

Why Brazil Is Exposed

Brazil produces more crude oil than it consumes, yet its refineries cannot meet diesel demand. Sergio Araujo, president of the Brazilian Fuel Importers Association (Abicom), told O Globo that imports must cover 25% to 30% of national diesel demand.

Russia has been the main supplier for much of 2026. Data from the trade ministry’s Comex Stat system, reported by the state news agency Agência Brasil, show the shift clearly. In March and April Brazil imported US$1.76 billion of diesel, and 81.25% of it came from Russia.

In April alone, Russian supply made up 89.84% of Brazil’s purchases. The United States supplied most of the rest.

That pattern then flipped. According to O Brasilianista, US suppliers took over after Moscow restricted exports and attacks hit Russian refineries. Abicom figures, reported by both O Globo and that site, put the US share of Brazil’s diesel imports at about 80% in September. The industry expects it to stay above 70% in October.

Araujo sees the new flows as helpful. “When supply rises and demand stays the same, the tendency is for prices to fall,” he told O Globo. He added that the US exports diesel rather than imports it, and that Russia’s diesel usually goes to Turkey, Brazil and others.

In his reading, the US would export less and keep more at home, easing pressure on American farmers. Brazilian buyers, in turn, would gain a second large source again.

What It Means for You

For US drivers and truckers, the pressure is real. The US Energy Information Administration put the average on-highway diesel price at US$6.199 a gallon on Monday 5 October. That was 18.3 cents lower than a week earlier but US$2.488 above a year ago.

For investors in Brazil, cheaper imported diesel would help freight, farming and inflation. It would also reduce the cost of the government’s fuel support. Brazil had just widened that support; see Brazil Adds US$1.5 Billion to Fuel Subsidies.

For traders, shippers and banks, the licence removes US sanctions risk on these deals until April. Firms still need to check other rules, including those of the European Union, which keeps its own ban on Russian refined fuel.

The region is feeling the same squeeze. Chile’s import bill shows it in Chile Imports Jump 13.5% as Diesel Bill Nearly Triples.

What Is Not Known

Neither government has published a schedule, buyers or prices for the cargoes. Trump himself tied the largest tranche to the condition of Russia’s refineries.

Abicom’s Araujo himself urged caution. “Between a statement and a fact there is a distance that can sometimes be large,” he told O Globo, adding that importers must wait to see whether the Russian cargoes materialise.

It is not known how much of the new supply will reach Brazil rather than Turkey, the US or other buyers.

It is also unclear how fast any price effect would reach Brazilian pumps, where taxes and subsidies shape the final price.

What Prediction Markets Say

The bet that matters most for Brazil is whether Washington stops diesel exports. Polymarket priced a US diesel export ban by 31 October at about 2% on Saturday at 8:13 a.m. ET, with around US$269,000 traded on that contract.

A ban by 31 December was priced at 11.5%, on thin volume of about US$12,000. A market on whether the US imports Russian diesel by 31 October had too little trading to count.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the US licence let Brazil buy Russian diesel?

Brazil does not apply US sanctions on Russia and kept buying the fuel. The licence removes US sanctions risk for traders, shippers and banks handling those cargoes until 7 April 2027.

How much Russian diesel did Trump announce?

Trump wrote that Russia would supply over 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November, 1,000,000 tonnes after that and possibly 3,000,000 tonnes more.

Where does Brazil get its imported diesel?

Russia supplied 81.25% of Brazil’s diesel imports by value in March and April, according to Comex Stat data. By September, US refiners supplied about 80%, according to Abicom figures.

Sources: OFAC, Issuance of Russia-related General License 135; General License 135 (PDF); Donald Trump, Truth Social; Kremlin, Statement by Vladimir Putin; Kremlin, Comment by Yury Ushakov; O Globo; Agência Brasil; O Brasilianista; US EIA, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error

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