By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-02 07:51:20 | Updated at 2026-10-02 08:48:19
1 hour ago
We look ahead to Saturday’s UEFA Nations League matchup with our Croatia vs England prediction and preview, as Thomas Tuchel’s Three Lions look to make it back-to-back wins.
Croatia vs England: The Key Stats
- England are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites when they renew rivalries with old foes Croatia on Saturday, with a 48.6% win probability.
- Since beating England in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, Croatia are winless in their last four meetings with the Three Lions (D1 L3).
- England have won their last eight away games in all competitions, and another victory would see them match their all-time record, set under Sir Alf Ramsey in 1967.
It’s fair to say Croatia are familiar foes for England at this point.
A blistering second-half performance saw Thomas Tuchel’s side overcome Croatia 4-2 in their opening game at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and they also beat the same opponents in their first match at Euro 2020 under Gareth Southgate.
Of course, the biggest meeting between the teams in recent years – in the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup – went the way of Luka Modric and co.
With both teams on three points after two games in Group A3 of the UEFA Nations League, Saturday’s clash at Stadion HNK Rijeka could be pivotal in the fight to make the last eight.
England needed a response after finishing on the wrong side of a five-goal thriller against Spain, and they got one against Czechia on Tuesday, helped by Pavel Sulc’s first-half red card.
Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane were on target in a 2-0 win for the Three Lions, which was their sixth in their last eight Nations League matches (L2) across the top two tiers, scoring 20 goals in that span. That is more victories and goals than they managed in their first 18 games in the competition overall (W5 D6 L7, 18 goals).
It was also England’s eighth straight away win in all competitions, giving them an opportunity to match a team record this weekend.
Only once have they ever won nine away games in a row, doing so under World Cup-winning manager Sir Alf Ramsey between December 1965 and October 1967.
And Kane – who smacked a penalty off the crossbar against Spain after losing his footing – has also enjoyed playing on the road lately, netting in each of his last five away games for England.
He could become just the fourth player to score in six consecutive away games for the Three Lions, after James Windridge (six from March to June 1908), Tom Finney (seven from September 1946 to May 1948) and Stan Mortensen (six from May 1947 to October 1948).
While Kane is almost a guaranteed starter, Tuchel has plenty of decisions to make elsewhere. Against Czechia, he handed Trent Alexander-Arnold his first England start since October 2024 (versus Finland), having made the more conservative choice to deploy Jarell Quansah at right-back against Spain.
Alexander-Arnold teed up Gordon’s opener with a trademark delivery to the far post, which was also his first assist for his country since that Finland game under Lee Carsley.
Myles Lewis-Skelly has deputised capably for his Arsenal club-mate Declan Rice in midfield, but with Alex Scott winning his first senior cap off the bench in midweek and Morgan Gibbs-White also looking lively, Tuchel has plenty of options.
Slaven Bilic made a winning return to the Croatia dugout against Czechia last weekend, but a crushing 4-1 defeat to Spain brought them back to earth on Tuesday.
Croatia have now lost five of their 10 matches overall in 2026 (W5), just the third time they have suffered that many defeats in a single calendar year (also 2018 and 2020), though they have never previously lost six in one year.
Despite briefly getting back on level terms in the first half through Dion Beljo‘s first international goal, Croatia were well beaten by the world champions. They only attempted five shots to Spain’s 16 and put up 0.47 expected goals (xG) to their opponents’ 1.81.
They have only registered a lower xG figure in three previous Nations League fixtures – versus France in March 2025 (0.18), Sweden in November 2020 (0.3) and England in October 2018 (0.42).
Modric could return to the starting lineup after getting 10 minutes off the bench in Seville, while England’s old nemesis Ivan Perisic has started both games in this international window. Perisic – who registered a goal and an assist against the Three Lions in that 2018 semi-final – has 15 goal involvements in his last 18 starts for Croatia (six goals, nine assists).
Croatia vs England Head-to-Head
Eight years ago, Kieran Trippier‘s memorable fifth-minute free-kick in Moscow was cancelled out by Perisic’s instinctive finish, before Mario Mandzukic sent Croatia through to the World Cup final with an extra-time winner, though they lost the final 4-2 to France.
But since then, Croatia are winless in all four of their meetings with the Three Lions (D1 L3), including two Nations League fixtures in 2018 (0-0 home, 1-2 away).
In fact, England have won five of their last seven matches against Croatia in all competitions (D1 L1), dating back to the 3-2 defeat in 2007 that cost them qualification for Euro 2008.
The Three Lions have scored at least four goals in three of those wins, triumphing 4-1 in September 2008, 5-1 in September 2009 and 4-2 in their opening group stage clash at the 2026 FIFA World Cup four months ago.
Croatia have won eight of their last nine competitive home matches (D1) since a 1-0 loss to Türkiye in a Euro 2024 qualifier back in October 2023.
However, despite Croatia only losing four of their last 41 competitive games at home, three of those losses have been in the Nations League, against France and Portugal in 2020 and Austria in 2022.
Croatia vs England Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is siding with England ahead of this game, albeit not decisively.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations run by the Opta model, the Three Lions triumphed in 48.6% of scenarios, with Croatia winning 27.4% and the remaining 24% of simulations finishing level.
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