By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-01-14 11:32:38 | Updated at 2025-01-14 23:14:42
11 hours ago
It’s important to look past the north London rivals’ contrasting recent form when considering who will win Wednesday’s meeting. The data proves Arsenal are far better off than Tottenham.
Taking a very, very short-term view, Arsenal aren’t on a great run of form.
Three games without a win in three different competitions have put the brakes on their season, but not so long ago, things felt rather different.
A 3-1 win over Brentford on New Year’s Day extended an unbeaten run that stretched back to early November.
Since captain Martin Ødegaard returned to the starting lineup at Chelsea, Mikel Arteta’s side had gone 12 games without a defeat. They had worked their way back into the title race as the only realistic challengers to runaway leaders Liverpool, hoping to take advantage of Manchester City’s shocking collapse in the league, and they were still battling on four fronts.
They even seemed to be successfully navigating the loss of Bukayo Saka to a serious hamstring injury, having put together three consecutive Premier League wins without arguably their best player.
A couple of weeks on, however, things look less positive. They were way off their best in drawing 1-1 at Brighton, before their most disappointing result of the season when they went 2-0 down at home in the League Cup semi-final first leg against Newcastle. That was followed up this weekend with a penalty-shootout defeat to 10-man Manchester United in the FA Cup that left their hopes of landing a first trophy since 2020 this season hanging by a thread.
Across north London, Spurs hope to have turned a corner after a woeful recent run of form. A week ago, Ange Postecoglou’s side had won only two of their last 11 games, and those were away to Premier League strugglers Southampton and at home to Man Utd in the League Cup, when they very nearly threw away a 3-0 lead.
A 1-0 win over Liverpool in the first leg of their League Cup semi-final lifted the mood, though. Requiring extra-time to beat National League side Tamworth at the weekend was far from ideal, and Spurs diced with death against fifth-tier opposition, but ultimately, they won, some of their best players got a rest, and their hopes of ending their trophy drought remain very much alive.
Wednesday’s north London derby therefore comes at an odd time. Arsenal are in danger of their season unravelling, while Spurs are threatening to get theirs back on track.
Going on very, very, very recent form, one might be forgiven for thinking Tottenham could be in with a chance of getting a result.
But while Spurs might be buoyed by an uncharacteristic run of 262 minutes without conceding a goal – their second best such run this season (they went 359 minutes without conceding in September/October) – the fact remains that these two teams are worlds apart in terms of quality.
Arsenal are title challengers, and should be contenders in the Champions League; Tottenham are grossly inconsistent, in the bottom half of the table, and may not even finish in the top eight of the league phase of the Europa League.
In Arsenal’s recent run of three games without a win, they have scored only two goals, but have created enough chances to win all three. Their chances in those games have been worth 7.35 xG (0.88 vs Brighton, 3.22 vs Newcastle, 3.25 vs Man Utd), but they were let down by some very poor finishing and thwarted by some outstanding goalkeeping, most notably when Ødegaard saw his penalty saved by United keeper Altay Bayindir.
The talk around Arsenal in the days following their FA Cup exit has revolved around the need to spend big on a striker who would finish off chances better than, say, Kai Havertz. The German failed to score from nine shots worth 1.90 xG against Newcastle and Man Utd, including missing a sitter in each game. He also saw his penalty saved in the FA Cup shootout, and that turned out to be the only one that anyone on either side missed as Arsenal crashed out.
Havertz just isn’t a natural goalscorer. He has underperformed relative to his xG in each of his five seasons in England.
However, this season, he is only marginally underperforming, with his 12 goals having come from 12.12 xG. His particularly poor showing in the last couple of games has just been felt particularly hard, and it is only after those misses that his actual goal return has dipped below his xG.
For some fans, though, it was difficult to escape the feeling that Havertz’s glaring misses were responsible for Arsenal going out of one cup after moving to the brink of elimination in another. His shootout miss against United didn’t help his case, but Arsenal created more than enough (3.25 xG) against United (0.48 xG) to win the game before the 120 minutes were up.
The German’s poor form in front of goal has also come at a bad time in that it has coincided with a few other major issues: Saka’s absence, Declan Rice picking up a knock, Gabriel Martinelli struggling for form, Gabriel Jesus being stretchered off against United, and an 11-game goal drought for Leandro Trossard. Havertz’s bad run in front of goal has felt so much more terminal than it would have in a week when everyone else was available and firing on all cylinders.
Arsenal have now ‘won’ on xG in 19 of their past 20 matches. In other words, if their finishing was precisely as good as their opponents, they would have won all but one of those games. There’s obviously more to it than simple xG numbers – Newcastle’s game plan was to sit back and soak up pressure, inevitably conceding more chances, for example, and they still arguably deserved to win the game – but this data does prove Arsenal’s form really hasn’t been that bad.
Against a Spurs side who might have kept clean sheets against Liverpool and Tamworth but still have an incredibly porous defence, Arsenal should again create plenty in attack. Only four teams have allowed their opponents more xG in the Premier League this season than Spurs (34.3).
Tottenham also have a woeful record in this fixture. They have won just one of their last 31 Premier League away games against Arsenal (D12, L18) and are winless in 13 since a 3-2 victory in November 2010. They haven’t kept a clean sheet away to their fiercest rivals in a league game in 25 years. Spurs have lost six of their last eight north London derbies and if they suffer defeat again, will have lost three in a row against Arsenal for the first time since January 1989.
Arsenal are also the only team yet to lose a home Premier League game this season (W6 D3), and even if Spurs have it in them to win 4-0 at Manchester City, they are also capable of losing at Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest.
There are justifiable reasons for Arsenal to be frustrated at the turn their season has taken over the early part of 2025, but it’s important to try and get some perspective by looking at the bigger picture.
The Opta supercomputer isn’t swayed by vibes and a lack of confidence in one particular centre-forward; it’s giving Arsenal a 64.7% chance of victory in the north London derby, with Spurs’ chances rated at just 16.9%. That seems like a better reflection of where these two teams are right now than their very brief runs of contrasting form.
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