The number of illegal aliens crossing into the United States is on track to reach the lowest level in nearly six decades, according to U.S. government data — but immigration authorities are facing increased pressure to keep those numbers down amid an approaching migrant caravan and other factors.
The Numbers
According to the data, released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) apprehended 10,939 illegal border crossers in August, including 8,870 at the southern border and 563 at the northern border. USBP apprehended a total of 110,118 illegals in the first 11 months of fiscal 2026 (data for September is pending release, as of this writing).
When including apprehensions by CBP’s Office of Field Operations, a separate agency from USBP, a total of 348,866 illegals were apprehended in fiscal 2026 (excluding September), a significant decrease from the 3,201,144 illegals apprehended in fiscal 2023.
Commenting specifically on USBP’s apprehensions, Andrew R. Arthur of the Center for Immigration Studies noted that “the FY 2026 YTD Southwest border apprehension total [89,760] is lower than the monthly totals in every month between February 2021, the first full month of the Biden administration (one shy of 102,000), and May 2024 (nearly 118,000),” which “were ‘good months’ by the standards of the last administration.” (Emphasis in original.)
Arthur continued, “Border Patrol is on pace to apprehend roughly 98,000 aliens by the time FY 2026 ends on September 30, and if that trend holds it will be the lowest annual apprehension total at the Southwest border since FY 1967 (just less than 74,000).”
CBP’s public data does not include “gotaways” — individuals who avoided apprehension or entered undetected. However, Breitbart reported that the number of known gotaways “dropped to fewer than 40 per day during the first two weeks of September,” a significant decrease from “a daily average of more than 2,200” in April 2023.
Migrant Caravan Approaching
The U.S. government, however, is facing increasing pressure to keep those apprehension numbers down. The most immediate threat is an approaching “migrant caravan” traveling through Mexico. The caravan, which started in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, on September 20, is estimated to have grown to more than 600 migrants, including those from Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Haiti.
In a statement to Fox News, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said that “USBP is closely engaged with its international partners to monitor their movement and any additional developments,” and declared that “anyone attempting to illegally enter the United States will be apprehended, prosecuted, and removed from the country.” In an interview with Newsmax, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said that “the caravan has zero chance of coming into our country.”
Additional Threats
Less-imminent but still-serious threats include pending court rulings and the outcome of the midterm elections. Arthur noted that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit earlier this year struck down a proclamation that President Donald Trump signed on his first day in office restricting asylum for illegals crossing the southern border. If the U.S. Supreme Court does not overturn this ruling, Arthur wrote, it could lead to an increase in illegal crossings.
Additionally, he continued, a Democratic victory in the upcoming midterm elections could prompt an illegal-crossing surge. He noted that “the last [family unit] rush prior to [Joe] Biden … was under Trump I in FY 2019,” shortly after the 2018 midterm elections in which the Democratic Party took the U.S. House of Representatives.
Restrictions Must Continue
For the time being, the U.S. government is continuing to take action restricting legal and illegal migration. For example, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services issued a new rule to more quickly reduce the backlog of “affirmative asylum” applications, and the U.S. Department of Justice has denied a historically high rate of requests for asylum. Additionally, the number of arrests and deportations by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has risen in recent months, and the U.S. foreign-born population is estimated to have declined by 2.9 million between January 2025 and July 2026 — driven mostly by illegal aliens leaving the country.
Continuing and intensifying these restrictions is essential for preserving national sovereignty and Americanist principles.
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