Israel-Iran Ceasefire Odds Fall to 45%

Tehran, where Iranian authorities sealed the French Language Centre linked to the French embassy on 20 September (Photo: Mahdi Kalhor, CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons)

IRAN · ISRAEL · PREDICTION MARKETS

Traders now put the chance that the Israel-Iran ceasefire is still in force on 31 December at 45%, down 12.5 points in a week. On Polymarket, the 31 December contract also lost 3.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The truce has held since April, apart from a brief exchange of fire in June. It matters to US readers because oil prices, fuel costs and the politics of the 3 November midterms all hang on whether it lasts.

Near-term bets are far firmer. Traders give the truce a 93.2% chance of lasting to 18 October and 82.5% to 31 October, so the doubt sits in the weeks after the two elections.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a crypto-based exchange, lists the question “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through…?” with one contract for each date. A contract resolves “Yes” if neither country carries out an air strike or long-range missile strike that directly hits the other before 11:59 p.m. Iran time on the listed date.

• 18 October: 93.2% on Polymarket, down 1.4 points in 24 hours; about US$192,000 traded in 24 hours.
• 21 October: 90.5%, down 2 points in 24 hours; about US$204,000 traded.
• 31 October: 82.5%, down 2 points in a week; about US$126,000 traded.
• 15 November: 63.5%, down 8 points in 24 hours and 7 points in a week; about US$8,200 traded.
• 30 November: 56.5%, down 3 points in 24 hours and 6.5 points in a week; about US$3,200 traded.
• 31 December: 45.0%, down 3.5 points in 24 hours and 12.5 points in a week; about US$14,800 traded, so this line is thinly traded.

Across all contracts, about US$35.8 million has traded on the question, including about US$555,000 in the past 24 hours. The market as a whole is actively traded, even though the longest-dated lines are thin. Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC, did not list a comparable Israel-Iran ceasefire contract when we looked.

Read on 16 October at 5:25 p.m. ET. These are bets, not polls and not a forecast by this newsroom, and you can follow live prices on our Prediction Markets page.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

File photo: an oil tanker. Oil is the main channel through which Gulf tension reaches US fuel prices.

Why the Odds Moved

We cannot point to one confirmed cause. Two reports from 13 and 14 October fit the timing of the decline, but traders have not said what moved them.

On 13 October, Israel’s Channel 12 News reported, citing US officials, that Netanyahu urged Trump to renew the fighting with Iran before Israel’s 27 October election and the US midterms, citing concern about Iran’s nuclear programme. The Times of Israel relayed the report. The prime minister’s office denied that Netanyahu is seeking to start a war with Iran before the elections and said he “maintains an ongoing dialogue with President Trump and senior US administration officials, and does not address the content of the conversations between them.”

Trump has said the US will not resume attacks on Iran before the midterms, the report noted, but it added that he had reportedly shifted back and forth on the issue every few days. At a rally in Wasilla, Alaska, on 13 October, he said: “Wait until you see what we do to Iran. We’re going to do a number.”

He also called higher oil prices from the Iran war “a small price to pay for stopping them from having a nuclear weapon,” according to the Times of Israel.

Our reading, not a claim from the sources: mixed signals matter more for the long contracts than the short ones. The 31 December line runs well past both elections, so a truce that looks safe this month can still look fragile for the year.

What It Means for US Readers

Oil is the first link. Our oil report of 9 October followed how crude reacted when Trump ruled out an Iran strike, and the same logic runs in reverse if the truce breaks, with fuel costs the channel that reaches US drivers.

Politics is the second. Trump himself ties the timing of any attack to the 3 November midterms, so ceasefire odds are now also a gauge of how the White House weighs fuel prices and war risk before voters go to the polls.

For investors, our analysis is that energy and airline shares, and funds that hold them, tend to react to Gulf headlines. A 45% price for a year-end truce is a bet on risk, not a forecast, and it can reverse as quickly as it fell.

What It Means for Latin America and Africa

Our analysis, not a claim from the sources: a broken truce would matter most through oil. Crude exporters such as Brazil, Colombia, Nigeria and Angola would tend to gain from higher prices, while fuel importers in both regions would pay more at the pump and for freight.

Latin America is also directly tied to the Iran file. Colombia cut diplomatic relations with Iran in September, as we reported in Colombia Severs Diplomatic Relations with Iran, and the US and nine allies accused Iran of lethal plots in the Americas, as covered in our 6 October report.

In Africa, our earlier reporting on Kenya’s exports to the UAE showed how a Gulf war can hit trade far from the region. See our Latin America odds page and Africa odds page for regional markets.

What Is Not Known

It is not known whether any strike is planned. The Channel 12 report rests on unnamed US officials, Netanyahu’s office does not discuss the content of his conversations with Trump, and we could not confirm the account independently.

It is also not known what drove the price. The contract counts only direct air or long-range missile strikes between the two countries, so incidents involving proxies, ground forces or intercepted missiles would not end the ceasefire on Polymarket’s terms.

Finally, the long-dated lines trade only a few thousand dollars a day, so a few large orders can move them.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are prediction markets saying about the Israel-Iran ceasefire?

Polymarket prices the ceasefire still holding on 31 December at 45.0% as of 16 October, 5:25 p.m. ET. It prices 93.2% for 18 October and 82.5% for 31 October.

How far did the odds move?

The 31 December contract fell 12.5 percentage points in seven days and 3.5 points in 24 hours. The 15 November contract lost 8 points in 24 hours.

What is the Israel-Iran ceasefire?

It is a truce between Israel and Iran that has held since April 2026, apart from a brief exchange of fire in June. Polymarket treats it as broken if either country carries out an air strike or long-range missile strike that directly hits the other.

What did Israel’s Channel 12 News report on 13 October?

It reported, citing US officials, that Netanyahu urged Trump to renew the fighting with Iran before Israel’s 27 October election and the US midterms. Netanyahu’s office said it does not address the content of his conversations with Trump.

Does a market price mean the ceasefire will hold or break?

No. Prediction market prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by this newsroom or by any government, and they can reverse as news arrives.

Sources: The Times of Israel, citing Channel 12 News, 13–14 October 2026 · The Times of Israel liveblog, 14 October 2026 · KETR, 8 June 2026 · Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 16 October 2026, 5:25 p.m. ET).

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief