By GB News (Politics) | Created at 2026-09-07 14:06:16 | Updated at 2026-09-07 15:27:41
1 hour ago
Sir John Curtice has said Labour has a “dirty secret” about how to see off the threat from Nigel Farage.
The polling guru, who spoke at a Demos think tank event at the NEC on Friday, revealed Andy Burnham needs the Conservatives to claw back support from Reform UK if it is to benefit electorally.
“The dirty secret that Labour has about Reform is that they need the Conservatives to take votes off you,” Sir John said.
“The Conservatives are much better placed to take votes off you than they are.
“As long as the Conservatives take some votes off you, and not too many, Labour will go great.”
Reform UK and the Tories remain in an "existential" battle to stand as the main party on the right of British politics, with Mr Farage making major inroads with 2024 Conservative voters since the 2024 General Election.
Around one in four 2024 Tory voters would now support Reform UK, damning polling has revealed.
Meanwhile, just six per cent of 2024 Reform UK voters have switched to support Kemi Badenoch's Tories.
Sir John also explained how Reform’s decline in the polls had so far been “relatively gentle”, with support gradually falling since autumn last year.
However, he also pinpointed the moment Reform's support appeared to take the biggest tumble.
Sir John Curtice appeared on a panel at Reform UK's 2026 conference
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“Of the various allegations and stories surrounding this party, the moment it seemed to make a difference was in the wake of Nigel Farage’s decision to trigger the Clacton by-election,” he said.
“Now, I’m not saying the decision itself is necessarily the reason that support went down because, of course, that decision coincided with some of the wider stories about funding for this party.
“But undoubtedly we can see very clearly that two, two-and-a-half [points] off Reform’s support, which you’ve not, so far, managed to get back.”
Sir John was speaking just hours after two senior Reform aides resigned amid an undercover sting over alleged foreign donations, with footage appearing to show discussions about securing money from overseas sources.
The polling expert suggested the scandal, unlike revelations about Mr Farage's Dulwich schooldays and Christopher Harborne's £5million gift, threatened to become Reform UK's "Partygate moment".
He said: “The problem is it’s a video and an audio. It’s potentially as damaging, therefore, as the Partygate video of Ms Stratton, who was Boris Johnson’s spokesperson, who was saying, ‘Were we having parties?’, and the pictures that also emerged.”
Sir John continued: “Voters no longer need to read the inside page of The Guardian or The Telegraph to get the story.
Reform UK's support has fallen since its all-time high last September
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“It was a very long and complicated story. And even someone like myself, after about 300 words went, ‘I could roughly get it, but can I be bothered to follow the rest of it?’ All you have to do now is listen to the video and the audio.”
However, Sir John stressed the funding scandal risks damaging trust in politicians more broadly.
He pointed to the Electoral Commission’s record of judgments and fines against other political parties, arguing that Reform was far from alone in having faced scrutiny over political finance.
“The public will end up saying, ‘You’re all as bad as each other’,” he said.
Sir John added: "All the political parties, at various points in the past, have been in trouble on these kinds of issues."
“People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones."
However, the polling expert stressed that the allegations had not yet meant Reform's "bubble" had burst.
He instead argued that its greatest long-term challenge was expanding beyond its existing electoral base.
“What I think the real challenge is whether or not you can break out beyond the niche market and socially conservative Britain and actually appeal to a wider constituency,” he said.
“Remember, even when you were well ahead in the opinion polls, you were at little more than 30 per cent, which historically has never been a winning number.”
However, while Mr Farage wins on the issue of immigration, Reform UK remains vulnerable to a Tory resurgence over the issue of economic management.
“I mean, the area where Reform supporters are least confident about this party is in terms of economic management,” he said.
Nigel Farage appearing at Reform UK's annual conference
“And that is almost undoubtedly one of the reasons why the Conservatives are focusing on that area.”
He said the Conservatives were particularly well placed to exploit the issue because of the ideological overlap between their voters and Reform supporters.
“It is therefore an area where the ideological perspective of the Conservative Party can be used to try to appeal to voters, some of whom are currently supporting this party,” he said.
Sir John pointed to the economic discontent among younger voters, including concerns over whether they will ever be as well off as their parents and whether they will be able to get onto the housing market.
He said France’s National Rally had appeared better able to tap into that discontent, while it was “not clear” that Reform had yet managed to do so.
“So it’s working out the economic message and persuading people that you’ve got an economic message that will succeed in turning the British economy around."
