By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-01 13:34:55 | Updated at 2026-10-01 15:15:24
2 hours ago
Arsenal’s poor start has raised bigger questions than their results alone. We examine the data behind their lack of cutting edge ahead of a crucial trip to the Etihad on Sunday.
After finishing second in the Women’s Super League last season, Arsenal would have been looking to build on their potential and bring home the title in 2027. However, with four matches played, the Gunners are already seven points behind leaders Manchester City in the league table.
Defeat to City this weekend would leave them 10 points off the top after only five matchdays. Arsenal have never trailed the league leaders by as much as 10 points after five games of a WSL season.
The same issues surfaced in Wednesday’s UEFA Women’s Champions League 2-2 draw with Paris FC.
Arsenal had 69.5% possession and established a two-goal lead, but once again their control failed to translate into complete command of the game. Their performance in Paris highlighted a side still short on confidence and, at times, guilty of being their own worst enemy.
An inability to put the contest beyond doubt allowed Paris back into the match, with the French side generating 1.44 expected goals (xG) from open play compared to Arsenal’s 1.16. While the penalty that sparked the comeback may have been unfortunate, the Gunners had already allowed Paris a foothold long before the equaliser arrived.
Given they’ve built their deepest squad in years with significant summer recruitment and have few injury concerns, not many would have thought Arsenal would have endured such a difficult start to the campaign.
They began with a hard-fought 1-0 win at Brighton, before a shock 0-0 home draw with newly-promoted Crystal Palace. Another game at the Emirates required a late equaliser against Manchester United, a late penalty against HB Køge saw them just about win their opening Champions League game, before suffering a 1-0 defeat at Chelsea last weekend.
The pre-season projection from the Opta supercomputer gave them a 25.6% chance of winning the WSL title across its 10,000 simulations; that figure has now fallen to 7.0%. A defeat at City on Sunday would leave their title hopes hanging by a thread.
Yet there is a familiar element to Arsenal’s struggles.
As was the case last season, the results are falling short of what the underlying numbers suggest. The Gunners’ actual WSL points tally is already 2.4 points below their expected total this term, the second-largest underperformance in the league behind Brighton (5.9 points below).
The results themselves are stark.
Arsenal are averaging just 1.25 points per game, their lowest rate in any WSL season and are winless in three league matches. Only twice in their history have they endured a longer winless run in the competition, with four-game stretches in May 2014 and October 2023.
Their 97% field tilt against Crystal Palace was perhaps the clearest illustration. Arsenal dominated territory without translating that control into meaningful chances, recording the highest field tilt in a WSL match since the start of 2023-24.
For a team that went 20 WSL matches unbeaten before this run, the speed of the change is striking.
Arsenal are spending 54% of their playing time level — the highest proportion in the division, and a familiar sight for a team that accumulated eight draws last season out. Meanwhile, they have spent just 23% of games in a leading position, the eighth most in the WSL.
The question, then, is not simply whether Arsenal can recover their title challenge, but why a team with greater depth, significant recruitment and few injury concerns are once again struggling to turn control into results.
An Attack That Has Lost Its Bite
The most alarming aspect of Arsenal’s start is not simply that they are failing to score, but how little threat they are generating when they have the ball.
Sleger’s side are dominating territory without consistently creating the openings that should follow.
The Gunners have scored just two goals from 78 shots across their four WSL matches. Only Charlton (1) have scored fewer goals, while Arsenal’s average of 39 shots per goal is currently the second-highest recorded by any team across a WSL season, behind only Yeovil Town in 2017-18 (46 per goal).
Indeed, Brighton are the only side underperforming their xG total by more than the Gunners – with a differential of -5.3 to the Gunners’ -4.6.
Their finishing has also reached historic levels of inefficiency. Arsenal’s 2.6% non-penalty shot conversion rate is their lowest across a four-match league stretch since July 2014 (2.1%).
But it is not purely a finishing problem. Their shot selection has been less than ideal.
Arsenal’s 0.085 non-penalty xG per shot is the second-lowest figure in the WSL this season and the lowest recorded by them in a single campaign since Opta’s xG records began in 2017.
The clearest example came against Chelsea last weekend. Arsenal produced just 0.021 xG per shot, their lowest in a WSL match since facing Everton in October 2024.
So, they are not just failing to convert chances; they are taking too many low-value shots.
That is particularly evident against organised defences. Arsenal are repeatedly shooting through bodies, seeing efforts blocked or forcing attempts from positions where the probability of scoring is minimal. No WSL side has seen a higher proportion of their shots blocked by opponents this season than Arsenal (35%).
It’s not like they haven’t had good opportunities to score in the WSL this season, though.
Arsenal have created nine Opta-defined big chances – a situation where a player would reasonably be expected to score – but converted only one of them.
Their wastefulness in front of goal has been highlighted before in Slegers’ reign.
Between November 2025 and January 2026, Arsenal scored five non-penalty goals from shots worth 10.1 xG across four WSL matches against Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton and Manchester United – an underperformance of 5.1 xG. Only their current run (-4.6) represents a greater four-game underperformance from non-penalty shots since Opta’s xG records began.
Possession Without Purpose
Possession has long been a defining feature of Arsenal in the WSL. Indeed, Chelsea were the only team to average more possession than Arsenal’s 58.9% in the WSL last season, and the Gunners continue to dominate the ball this season.
The difference now is what they do with it.
Arsenal have played 1,510 passes in the opposition half and 962 in the final third, both league highs. Only Tottenham (208) have more touches in the opposition box than Arsenal (205), while their 14.3 shots inside the box per game is their second-highest rate on record.
Yet, that territorial dominance is not translating into enough danger.
They have forced 54 high turnovers, the third-most in the league, but just seven of those have resulted in a shot, and none in a goal. Chelsea, by comparison, have turned 15 of their high turnovers into shots.
That pattern was evident against Crystal Palace. Arsenal had 70 touches in the Palace penalty area but failed to score – only once in WSL history has a team had more touches in the opposition’s box without finding the net (Arsenal’s 76 against Yeovil in April 2018).
Against Chelsea, the opening half-hour offered another look at the same problem. Arsenal controlled possession, hit the woodwork twice, and largely restricted Chelsea, but still failed to create a big chance across 90 minutes.
Indeed, Arsenal failed to register a shot on target in the first half of a WSL game for the first time since 22 November last year against Man Utd.
In terms of ball progression, Arsenal’s possession sequences have also become slightly longer (3.80 passes per sequence vs 3.66) and slower (1.54m/s direct speed vs 1.61) compared to last season.
In possession, build up attacks per game are down this season compared to last (3.8 vs 3.0), as are overall open-play sequences of 10+ passes (11.9 vs 11.3 per game)
Such numbers, reinforce the impression of a team increasingly focused on maintaining control rather than using it to unsettle the opposition.
But possession itself is not the problem, it is what Arsenal do with it.
When Arsenal lose the ball after prolonged possession, they can be exposed by the transition. Steph Catley’s error against Chelsea was costly, and similar problems had been evident against Man Utd, when a misplaced pass from Georgia Stanway was punished.
Predictable Selection, Unclear Identity
Arsenal have more depth now than they’ve had in many years, but the data suggests Slegers is still searching for the right balance.
She has made nine starting XI changes across Arsenal’s first four WSL matches, joint-most in the division, while using 21 players, more than any other side. Indeed, just Emily Fox and Leah Williamson have played every minute of league action.
The pattern stretches back further. Arsenal have made at least two changes to their starting XI in 17 consecutive WSL matches – 16 of those have seen her make more than three. The last time Slegers made only one change to a league starting XI was in November last year.
That constant tinkering matters because Arsenal’s problems are not a lack of options, but are struggling to establish which combinations give them the greatest attacking threat.
Alessia Russo‘s struggles are not simply the result of poor finishing. She is averaging 3.1 shots per game in the WSL this season, her lowest rate across her last six top-flight campaigns, yet her 0.18 xG per shot is the highest return of that period. The quality of the chances she is getting has not necessarily declined; Arsenal are simply getting her into shooting positions less frequently.
A key factor is her role within the team. Russo has played as a striker for just 67% of her minutes this season, down from 73% last term, with Slegers often deploying her deeper to accommodate Stina Blackstenius through the middle. That trend was evident against Chelsea, where Slegers withdrew Mariona Caldentey rather than Russo, moving the England international into the No. 10 role.
While Russo finally opened her account for the campaign in the UWCL on Wednesday, she has still played 98% of Arsenal’s WSL minutes despite her difficult start. It suggests Slegers remains unwilling to leave one of her most important players out, even as her form dips
Lisa Baum offers another selection question.
She leads Arsenal for shots on target (6), progressive carries (39) and carries ending in a chance created (5) or take-on (7) this season in the WSL. She is also second for shots (10), touches in the box (27) and chances created (7) across her teammates in the division.
Yet, Baum has regularly been substituted.
At the same time, players capable of changing the rhythm of games have largely been used from the bench; Smilla Holmberg and Selina Cerci are yet to start a WSL match, despite both making an impact when introduced.
They are different attacking profiles from the ones Arsenal have relied on most heavily, and that variety has been missing.
Against Chelsea, Arsenal’s structure was heavily concentrated through the middle. Caldentey repeatedly moved inside, while Ona Batlle inverted from the left. Baum provided their clearest outlet on the right, but Arsenal had limited natural width elsewhere, allowing Chelsea to defend a relatively narrow attack.
The squad profile makes the selection picture even more interesting.
Arsenal now have a higher proportion (54% vs 48%) of players in their ‘prime’ than last season, while four players who have been at the club for less than a year have already played 60% or more of the available WSL minutes. Last season, that figure was zero.
Yet, these managerial decisions mean several other options have barely featured. Chloe Kellyhas played 124 minutes, Holmberg 34, and Frida Maanum just seven.
Maanum has recorded at least nine WSL goal involvements in each of her last two seasons, as well as 13 in 2022-23. Taylor Hinds has not played a minute in the league, while Olivia Smith has largely been restricted to a right-wing role, with far less positional variation than in previous campaigns.
This is not an argument that all of those players should start. It is a question of whether Arsenal are using the depth they have built to create different solutions.
For a squad with this many alternatives, Arsenal’s attacking game remains remarkably similar from week to week.
The issue, then, is not a lack of players, but a lack of selection clarity and attacking variety.
What’s Next?
The biggest concern is no longer simply the results.
It is that Arsenal currently lack a clearly identifiable attacking identity. They dominate possession, change line-ups regularly, create plenty of low-quality shots and control large parts of matches, yet rarely look capable of overwhelming and outscoring opponents.
Arsenal are still searching for their best combinations and until they find them, their possession-heavy approach risks becoming increasingly predictable.
They now face the champions, and for Slegers, anything but a win at the Etihad may lead to questions about her future at the club.
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