By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-16 08:12:00 | Updated at 2026-10-16 09:28:52
1 hour ago
We look ahead to Sunday’s late Premier League game at the City Ground, as Mikel Arteta’s champions look to keep pace with Manchester City. Here is our Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
- Arsenal are given a 58.3% chance of beating Nottingham Forest on Sunday, the highest assigned to any away team on Matchday 7 in the Premier League.
- The last two league meetings between Forest and Arsenal at the City Ground have finished goalless despite 40 shots.
- Arsenal have not scored a non-penalty set-piece goal in six Premier League games this season, their longest such drought since a seven-match run from January to March in 2025.
When Oliver Glasner masterminded a 2-1 victory over Fulham on 7 December last year, his Crystal Palace side sat fourth in the Premier League table.
Of course, the Austrian has had more highs since then, leading the Eagles to UEFA Conference League glory in May to rubber-stamp his standing as their greatest-ever manager, before departing for Nottingham Forest.
But very few of those positive moments have been in the Premier League. Since that victory over Fulham, Glasner has only overseen five wins in 29 top-flight matches (D9 L15) – with just one coming in his first six games with Forest.
Since the start of that 29-game sequence, on Matchday 16 of 2025-26, Glasner’s 17% win ratio is the second worst among all managers to oversee at least 20+ Premier League games, with only former Wolves boss Rob Edwards (13%) faring worse.
Last Sunday’s 3-1 defeat at his former home of Selhurst Park will have particularly stung Glasner, especially with Forest firing off 24 shots and racking up 3.36 expected goals (xG). Their eight big chances in that game was the most by any team to lose a Premier League game since Blackburn Rovers against Newcastle United in February 2012.
And things do not get much easier for them this weekend as they go up against reigning Premier League champions, Arsenal.
Forest’s underlying metrics this campaign have been broadly positive. Their per-game averages in the Premier League for shots (17.7), expected goals (1.72 xG), touches in the opposition’s box (27.3) and big chances (3.5) are their best in any of the last five seasons.
However, they have scored with just 4.7% of their shots and have the worst xG differential in the division this season, netting five times from 10.3 xG (-5.3).
Dan Ndoye is the only Forest player to net twice in the Premier League this campaign, with Liam Delap, Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White all netting once apiece. Delap was guilty of a particularly glaring miss against Palace, and he has a conversion rate of just 7.1% from 14 shots in 2026-27, only hitting the target with two of those efforts.
Gibbs-White may feel like he has been let down by his teammates at times, as only Brighton & Hove Albion’s Pascal Groß (18) has created more chances in the Premier League than his 17. Gibbs-White also leads all players for open-play chances created (15), big chances created (seven) and expected assists (1.87 xA).
Forest will have to be more clinical if they are to have a chance of upsetting Arsenal, who have responded fairly positively since they lost 3-0 at Brighton going into the international break.
Against Leeds United last weekend, they went 1-0 down for the third time in their last four Premier League matches, as many times as they did in their previous 25 combined. The contest was a struggle at times, with Daniel Farke’s men impressing.
But goals from Riccardo Calafiori and Bruno Guimarães turned the game around, sealing Arsenal’s second win from behind in four matches. No team has won more points from losing positions this season than the Gunners’ six.
Arsenal have now won 14 of their last 17 Premier League games (L3), with nine of those wins coming via a one-goal margin. In the last two seasons, they have won 17 by a single goal, the most of any side in Europe’s big five leagues.
Mikel Arteta’s men enjoyed a more convincing display in the UEFA Champions League, though, as Jurriën Timber, Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka scored in Tuesday’s 3-0 success over Lille.
Saka now has 19 goals in major European competitions for Arsenal, the second most in their history behind Thierry Henry (42), while his nine assists in the Champions League is their third most, behind Henry (16) and Cesc Fàbregas (14).
And the England winger may be called upon to provide the creativity again on Sunday, as somewhat curiously, Arsenal have not been able to rely upon their set-piece prowess yet this term.
The Gunners, who scored 25 non-penalty set-piece goals in the Premier League last term, including a new single-season record of 19 from corners, haven’t found the net from a set-piece (excluding penalties) after six Premier League matches in 2026-27.
It is their longest run without one since a seven-match streak between January and March 2025, and the first time they have not netted one in their first six games of a campaign since 2011-12.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
The last two Premier League meetings between Forest and Arsenal at the City Ground have ended goalless, with 40 combined shots registered without success.
Forest have only won one of their last 11 Premier League matches against Arsenal overall (D2 L8).
That victory came by a 1-0 scoreline in May 2023, with Taiwo Awoniyi‘s goal sealing a result that not only secured Forest’s Premier League status for another season, but also mathematically crowned Manchester City champions.
Forest have failed to score in each of their last four meetings with Arsenal, with Awoniyi netting another goal against them in a 2-1 home defeat in January 2024.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is firmly behind Arsenal for this game, with their win probability standing at 58.3%.
Across the model’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, Nottingham Forest won 20.4%, while the remaining 21.3% finished level.
And in our 2026-27 season predictions, Arsenal’s 44.7% chance of winning the title makes them slight favourites, ahead of Man City’s 42.5%.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Nottingham Forest: Matz Sels, Jair Cunha, Ousmane Diomande, Murillo, Daniel Muñoz, James McAtee, Xaver Schlager, Neco Williams, Dan Ndoye, Morgan Gibbs-White, Liam Delap.
Head coach: Oliver Glasner
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, Cristhian Mosquera, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Eberechi Eze, Kai Havertz.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
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