Putin’s sinking approval ratings are a warning Russians are frustrated with Ukraine war: experts

Not even the Kremlin can protect him.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has seen his approval ratings plummet — despite controlling the polls — in what experts said was a sign of the growing frustration over the prolonged war in Ukraine.

Putin, who enjoyed approval numbers as high as 89% before invading his neighbor, has seen his popularity free-fall to about 65% in the latest state-run Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) survey.

The Public Opinion Foundation, which conducts surveys for the Kremlin, also found that support for Putin’s performance fell from 71% to 66% in July, the steepest fall since the 2022 protests spurred by the Russian draft.

The fact that the Kremlin’s own surveys are reporting such numbers suggest that officials are sending a clear message to Putin: Plan your next moves carefully and end the war soon, Kateryna Stepanenko, the Russia Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War think tank, told The Post.

“We’ve seen support for Putin waning, albeit marginally, but it shows that his critical decisions in the war are forcing pollsters to show the active decline,” Stepanenko said.  

“It may also signal that individuals inside the Kremlin are trying to use pollsters to send a message to Putin about the war,” she added. “Someone is going out of there to show that interest in the war is waning.”  

Stepanenko pointed out that unlike North Korea, where dictator Kim Jong Un holds a 99% approval rating in state-run surveys, Russian polls are one of the few peepholes that reveal the populous’ feelings for the Kremlin.

Along with Putin’s performance and approval ratings dropping, trust in the strongman has also declined from 76.7% in mid-June to 71% in the latest VTsIOM poll.

The level of distrust, however, may be much higher.

In a survey conducted by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia, which presented a different question than those by the state-run pollsters, respondents in the Krasnodar and Rostov regions were asked, “Which Russian politician or statesman do you trust most of all?”

Only 39% of people named Putin in Krasnodar, and just 37% in Rostov — far below the numbers seen in the state polls.

With the war still raging in its fifth year, the Kremlin has been progressively losing its ability to shield Russian citizens and its elites from the impacts.

Ukrainian attacks on refineries and online retailers are growing in frequency, with gas shortages and the effects of western sanctions increasing the pain in Russia, said John Hardie, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Russia program.

While Putin is facing pressure from the public and Russia’s oligarchs, it is still not enough to threaten his grip on Moscow.

“There is a strong desire to end the war, but it’s not likely that this trend will lead to major unrest or a palace coup,” Hardie said.

Putin, however, is aware of the push back, which is likely causing him to act carefully and avoid triggering any more public unrest, as evidenced by his about-face over taking control of Telegram or refusal to repeat 2022’s draft, Hardie and Stepanenko said.  

But with Russia losing tens of thousands of troops along the frontlines every month and the need to nationalize businesses to support the war effort looming, Putin may not have a choice, Hardie added.

“[Putin’s] likely waiting until after the elections this September to announce a new wave of mobilizations,” he surmised.

Kaupo Rosin, the director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), said last week that Putin’s hold on power was at its most delicate it has ever been.

“There are cer­tainly voices which express that he should keep going, but I think the voices which, let’s say, urge [him] to maybe recon­sider the situ­ation are becom­ing stronger,” Rosin told the Telegraph while assessing the “internal tension” Moscow faces.