By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-17 06:41:31 | Updated at 2026-10-17 07:28:20
1 hour ago
COSTA RICA · UNITED NATIONS
Key Facts
- —What is happening Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan said on Friday, 16 October, that she stays in the race for UN Secretary-General after the Security Council’s sixth straw poll gave her nine encourage and five discourage votes.
- —Why it matters She is the only candidate to reach the nine encourage votes needed, yet two of the five permanent members discouraged her, and a formal recommendation needs nine votes and no veto from any of them.
- —The numbers Grynspan won 9 encourage, 5 discourage and 1 no-opinion vote among 15 ballots, while Rafael Grossi and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett each won 8 encourage votes, and Guterres leaves office on 31 December 2026.
- —Who is who Grynspan is a Costa Rican former vice president who now leads the UN trade agency UNCTAD; the Security Council has five permanent members with veto power and ten elected members.
- —What to watch Grynspan meets Costa Rican President Laura Fernández on Monday, 19 October, and plans talks with Council members, while the date of the next straw poll has not been set.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Rebeca Grynspan a 49% chance of becoming the next UN Secretary-General, Rafael Grossi 19% and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 13% (17 October, 2:24 a.m. ET).
- —Power Index Costa Rica ranks 9th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 36.5 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you Washington holds one of the five permanent seats that decide whether a candidate advances, so US policy shapes the outcome, and no government has said publicly how it voted.
Costa Rica’s candidate led the Security Council’s latest informal poll but drew discourage votes from two permanent members. She says she stays in the race for the UN’s top job.
Rebeca Grynspan, Costa Rica’s candidate for UN Secretary-General, said on Friday, 16 October, that she stays in the race. Her pledge followed the Security Council’s sixth straw poll, where she led with nine encourage votes and five discourage votes.
Costa Rican outlets La Nación, Teletica and CRHoy carried her press conference, where she rejected talk of a veto. She said no formal vote took place, so a veto could not have been cast.
Rebeca Grynspan Vows to Stay in the UN Race
Grynspan told reporters in Costa Rica that her bid stays alive and the race is entering “the second half of the match”. Teletica and CRHoy quote her saying her campaign is the best positioned of all the candidates.
She claimed the most encourage votes, the fewest discourage votes and the most support among permanent members, Teletica reported. These are her own claims, since the Council does not publish the secret results.
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What the Sixth Straw Poll Showed
The Council held its sixth informal poll on Friday, 16 October, with China and the US as tellers, Security Council Report said. PassBlue says it was the first poll with colour-coded ballots, separating the five permanent members from the ten elected ones.
Security Council Report said each ballot offered three options: encourage, discourage or no opinion. PassBlue, an independent UN news site, obtained the secret results.
Grynspan received nine encourage, five discourage and one no-opinion vote, PassBlue reported, and La Nación confirmed the nine and the five. PassBlue says three permanent members encouraged her and two discouraged her.
Rafael Grossi of Argentina and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana each received eight encourage votes, PassBlue and La Nación say. Both accounts give Rodrigues-Birkett six discourage votes.
Grynspan is the only candidate to reach nine encourage votes, PassBlue says. A candidate needs nine encourage votes and no permanent-member veto before the Council recommends them to the 193-member General Assembly.
Does a Veto Hang Over the Grynspan Bid?
Straw poll votes are informal and secret, so a discourage vote from a permanent member is a warning, not a formal veto. Grynspan made that point, saying: “There was no formal vote today, and therefore we cannot talk about vetoes.”
CRHoy calls the two discourage votes from permanent members vetoes, and Diario Extra calls them alleged vetoes. Grynspan asked people not to speculate about who cast them.
What It Means for US Readers
The United States holds one of the five permanent Council seats, so its vote helps decide whether any candidate can advance. Which members discouraged Grynspan is not confirmed, and no government has said how it voted.
Three candidates from the Americas, from Costa Rica, Argentina and Guyana, sit at the top of the latest poll. Earlier Rio Times coverage tracked how Michelle Bachelet quit the race and how Kofi Annan’s legacy looms over the race.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the next Secretary-General gave Grynspan 49%, Grossi 19% and Rodrigues-Birkett 13% at 2:24 a.m. ET on Saturday, 17 October. These are bets, not polls, and the event has traded about US$226,000 in total.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not confirmed which permanent members discouraged Grynspan. La Nación and CRHoy cite an anonymous diplomat via PassBlue naming two states, a claim PassBlue’s results story lacks.
The results come from PassBlue and Costa Rican outlets, and no official tally was available. Grossi’s full count is not given consistently, and the date of the next poll is not set.
What Comes Next
Grynspan said she will open talks with Council members to strengthen her candidacy, Teletica and CRHoy report. La Nación says she is in Costa Rica until Tuesday, 20 October, and met the new foreign minister, Ana Elena Pinto.
She meets President Laura Fernández on Monday, 19 October, La Nación reports. The next straw poll has not been scheduled, PassBlue says.
UN chief António Guterres leaves office on 31 December 2026, PassBlue says, and a successor is due on 1 January 2027. If chosen, Grynspan would be the first Latin American woman to lead the UN Secretariat, Teletica notes.
The Rio Times explainer on how the UN Secretary-General selection and veto work sets out the steps. Any formal recommendation still needs nine encourage votes and no permanent-member veto.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a straw poll in the UN Secretary-General race?
It is an informal, secret Security Council poll in which members mark each candidate encourage, discourage or no opinion. It is not binding, and no formal vote follows until the Council settles on a candidate.
Did Rebeca Grynspan receive a veto?
Not formally, because the straw poll was informal and she says no formal vote took place. PassBlue reports that two permanent members discouraged her, and the ballots are secret.
How many votes does a candidate need?
A candidate needs nine encourage votes in the 15-member Council and no veto from the five permanent members, La Nación explains. The Council then recommends the candidate to the 193-member General Assembly.
Who else is in the race?
Rafael Grossi of Argentina and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana each received eight encourage votes on Friday. Security Council Report’s list of seven candidates also includes Macky Sall of Senegal and María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador.
When does the next Secretary-General take office?
António Guterres leaves office on 31 December 2026, PassBlue says. His successor is due to start on 1 January 2027, Diario Extra says.
Why should US readers care?
The United States is one of five permanent Council members whose formal vote can block a candidate. Polymarket gave Grynspan a 49% chance on Saturday, 17 October, at 2:24 a.m. ET.
Sources: Security Council Report, What’s In Blue, sixth straw poll schedule; PassBlue, 16 October; La Nación; Teletica; CRHoy; Monumental; Diario Extra (all accessed 17 October 2026).
