By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-11 08:46:54 | Updated at 2026-10-11 09:55:41
1 hour ago
Latin America · What’s On
Key Facts
- —The vote Brazil’s presidential runoff is on Sunday 25 October, between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Their first TV debate is on Sunday 18 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time (7 p.m. US Eastern), according to Band.
- —The data Argentina publishes September inflation on Tuesday 13 October at 4 p.m. Buenos Aires time (3 p.m. US Eastern). Brazil reports retail sales on Thursday 15 and its IBC-Br activity index on Friday 16. Peru reports August GDP on Thursday 15.
- —The holiday Monday 12 October is a public holiday in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay. Brazil marks Our Lady of Aparecida, the country’s patron saint.
- —On stage Robbie Williams plays a single date in São Paulo on Tuesday 13 October, his first Brazilian show in 20 years. Mexico’s Cervantino arts festival closes on Sunday 18 October, and Lima holds a Señor de los Milagros procession the same day.
- —On the pitch The Copa Libertadores semi-finals open on Wednesday 14 October with Fluminense v Palmeiras at the Maracanã, 9:30 p.m. Brasília time (8:30 p.m. US Eastern). Estudiantes v Flamengo follows on Thursday 15.
- —Prediction markets On Sunday 11 October, 4 a.m. US Eastern, Polymarket priced Flávio Bolsonaro at 87.9% and Lula at 11.5% to win the runoff. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, priced them at about 88% and 13% on its last trades.
Your Latin America week ahead for 12–18 October 2026 starts with a holiday Monday in five countries and ends with Brazil’s first runoff debate. In between come Argentina’s September inflation figure, the Copa Libertadores semi-finals and a rare Brazilian date for Robbie Williams.
This guide was written on Sunday 11 October. Every date is checked against an official calendar, a venue or a ticketing page, and local-currency prices carry an approximate US$ conversion at US$1 = R$4.99 (EODHD close of Friday 9 October).
Politics you will feel on the street
Brazil votes in the presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October, two weeks from today. Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), faces Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), according to the electoral court (TSE) and Brazilian press reports.
Free TV and radio campaign time began on Friday 9 October and runs Monday to Saturday until 23 October. The two candidates share it equally. Radio blocks run at 7 a.m. and 12 noon, and TV blocks at 1 p.m. and 8:30 p.m., each about ten minutes, in Brasília time.
The first runoff debate is on Sunday 18 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time, organised by the broadcaster Band and the newspaper Estadão. It was moved from 11 October. Flávio Bolsonaro said on 6 October that he will take part. We could not confirm Lula’s attendance.
For US readers, the main exposure is the real (BRL). Brazilian assets often move on election news, and a debate on a Sunday evening means the market reaction comes on Monday 19 October. The real stood at about R$4.99 per US$ on Friday 9 October (EODHD).
What Prediction Markets Say
Brazil runoff. On Sunday 11 October, 4 a.m. US Eastern, Polymarket priced a Flávio Bolsonaro win at 87.9% and a Lula win at 11.5%, with about US$180 million traded on the market. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, priced them at about 88% and 13% on its last trades.
Argentina inflation. Polymarket gave about 61% to a September monthly reading between 1.9% and 2.1%, and 29.0% to one between 1.6% and 1.8%, with about US$32,000 traded. The EODHD calendar consensus is 2.0%, against 1.7% in August.
Copa Libertadores. Polymarket priced Flamengo at 43.5%, Palmeiras at 26.5% and Estudiantes at 13.1% to win the title, with about US$33,000 traded.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Deadlines and money
Argentina publishes September consumer prices on Tuesday 13 October at 4 p.m. Buenos Aires time, according to the INDEC calendar. The EODHD consensus is 2.0% for the month and about 34% over twelve months. August showed 1.7% for the month and 33.7% over twelve months. Argentina is also on holiday on Monday, so offices reopen on Tuesday.
Brazil has three releases, according to the EODHD economic calendar. The services survey for August comes on Wednesday 14 October. Retail sales for August follow on Thursday 15, and the central bank’s IBC-Br activity index for August on Friday 16. The services survey has a previous reading of 0.9%.
Peru reports August GDP on Thursday 15 October, according to the EODHD calendar. The EODHD consensus is 2.9% growth over twelve months, against 3.56% in July. September unemployment is also due, with 5.0% expected against 4.8% before.
Colombia reports August industrial production and retail sales on Friday 16 October, according to the EODHD calendar. Mexico’s statistics office, INEGI, publishes August industrial production on Monday 12 October. The same calendar lists September inflation for Ecuador and the Dominican Republic on Thursday 15.
No major Latin American central bank is scheduled to set rates this week, based on our review of the calendars. Chile’s central bank meets on 26–27 October and Brazil’s Copom on 3–4 November.
Culture and events this week
São Paulo hosts Robbie Williams on Tuesday 13 October, his only Brazilian date on the BRITPOP tour and his first visit in 20 years. Gates open at 5 p.m. and the show starts at 9 p.m. São Paulo time. Tickets ran from R$195 (about US$39) for a half-price upper seat to R$690 (about US$138) for a full-price premium floor ticket, plus fees, on the seller Ingresse. The age rating is 16.
Guanajuato closes the Festival Internacional Cervantino on Sunday 18 October at 7 p.m. local time with the Dabeull Live Band at the Alhóndiga. This is the festival’s 54th edition, which began on 3 October, and France is the guest country.
Lima holds the second Señor de los Milagros procession on Sunday 18 October, according to El Peruano. The route runs along Avenida Tacna to the Plaza Mayor and ends overnight at the Iglesia del Carmen. The next procession is on Monday 19 October.
On the pitch, the Copa Libertadores semi-finals open on Wednesday 14 October with Fluminense v Palmeiras at the Maracanã, at 9:30 p.m. Brasília time. Palmeiras fans pay R$320 (about US$64) for their 4,000 away seats. On Thursday 15 October Estudiantes host Flamengo at the Estadio Jorge Luis Hirsch in La Plata, also at 9:30 p.m. Brasília time. The return legs are on 21 and 22 October.
In the Copa Sudamericana, Boca Juniors host Vasco da Gama at La Bombonera on Tuesday 13 October at 9:30 p.m. Buenos Aires time.
Heads-ups for travellers and new arrivals
The holiday Monday. Monday 12 October is a public holiday in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay. Expect public offices to be closed.
Brazil’s patron saint. Our Lady of Aparecida is honoured on 12 October, and the national shrine in Aparecida, in São Paulo state, draws large crowds of pilgrims on that day.
Lima on Sunday. Expect heavy crowds in the old centre on 18 October, and plan to reach the Plaza de Armas area on foot.
What we could not confirm. We could not confirm Lula’s attendance at the Band debate or the exact start time of Sunday’s procession in Lima.
Looking ahead
The Libertadores return legs are on Wednesday 21 and Thursday 22 October, and the final is on 28 November in Montevideo. Brazil’s runoff is on Sunday 25 October. Chile’s central bank decides on 27 October.
Weeks like this one show a pattern: official calendars (data, debates, holidays) are firm, while markets and results stay open. The dates above are the part of the week that will not move.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Background: Brazil Elections 2026: Complete Guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Brazil runoff and the first debate?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026. The first debate, organised by Band and Estadão, is on Sunday 18 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time, which is 7 p.m. US Eastern.
When does Argentina publish September inflation?
On Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 4 p.m. Buenos Aires time, according to the INDEC calendar. The EODHD consensus is 2.0% for the month, against 1.7% in August.
Which countries have a holiday on Monday 12 October?
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay. In Brazil the day marks Our Lady of Aparecida.
Who plays in the Copa Libertadores semi-finals this week?
Fluminense host Palmeiras at the Maracanã on Wednesday 14 October, and Estudiantes host Flamengo on Thursday 15 October. Both kick off at 9:30 p.m. Brasília time. The return legs are on 21 and 22 October.
When does Robbie Williams play in São Paulo?
On Tuesday 13 October 2026, with gates at 5 p.m. and the show at 9 p.m. São Paulo time. It is his only Brazilian date on the tour. Tickets ran from R$195 (about US$39) to R$690 (about US$138), plus fees.
Sources: TSE, Band and Estadão, TRE-PR and Brazilian press on the runoff, the debate and campaign airtime; INDEC, IBGE, BCB, INEI, DANE and INEGI release calendars; EODHD economic calendar for consensus and previous values and for exchange rates; Polymarket and Kalshi for prediction-market prices (11 October 2026, 4 a.m. US Eastern); Bloomberg Línea and national calendars on the 12 October holiday; Ingresse, Band and Billboard Brasil on Robbie Williams; Festival Internacional Cervantino and Excelsior on the festival dates; El Peruano on the Señor de los Milagros dates and route; Palmeiras and O Liberal on the semi-finals; Gazeta Esportiva, Tribuna de Jundiaí and CONMEBOL reports on the semi-finals; Diario Panorama on Boca v Vasco da Gama; Banco Central de Chile and Copom calendars. Local-currency figures carry approximate US$ conversions at the rates cited; prices and availability move.
