Russia Can Restart 80% of Black Sea Grain Export Terminals if Attacks Stop – Analysis

Russia could quickly restart up to 80% of its grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov if diplomatic efforts to halt mutual attacks by Russia and Ukraine result in a ceasefire, a Reuters analysis of industry data showed on Friday.

But three terminals accounting for about 20% of Russia's grain export infrastructure in the area have suffered heavy damage and could take months to repair, the analysis showed.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is leading an international effort by grain-importing countries to restore Black Sea grain trade, which has been stalled by attacks on ports and vessels in recent months.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that India, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries were also involved. The Kremlin acknowledged diplomatic contacts but said Russia was finding alternate export routes in the meantime.

Reuters analyzed the condition of Russia's nine major grain terminals in the region, as well as smaller facilities in the Sea of Azov and Don river delta, using information from four sources familiar with terminal operations.

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Before the attacks, the route handled up to 70% of Russia's grain exports.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and disruption to shipments has driven up global grain prices and renewed concerns about food security linked to the war in Ukraine.

The analysis found that three of nine major terminals had suffered serious damage in Ukrainian attacks, affecting about one-fifth of grain-loading capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.

Extent of damage

One of Russia's three largest grain terminals, NKHP in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, suffered serious damage in an Aug. 12 attack. The terminal has annual capacity of 7.1 million metric tons and repairs could take up to six months.

"At NKHP, that conveyor gallery was completely destroyed. It actually collapsed onto the road and was lying across it," one source at Novorossiysk told Reuters.

"The staff were sent home for six months. I don't even know how long the shutdown will last," he said, adding that damage at the other two Novorossiysk terminals, KSK and NZT, was minor and that both were ready to resume operations.

The company said repairs at NKHP could take up to four months.

The other damaged terminals, ZTKT at the Black Sea port of Taman and a terminal in Taganrog on the Azov Sea, have halted operations although the full extent of the damage could not be established. Together, ZTKT and Taganrog have annual capacity of 6.7 million tons.

ZTKT, which has annual capacity of 5.5 million tons, was hit on July 30 and is unable to load grain, another source said, adding that it was unclear when operations could resume.

The analysis showed that terminals with combined capacity of about 53 million tons are currently idle because of security risks but could resume operations. Total grain terminal capacity in the region is about 67 million tons.

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