Sammy P Sportsbook Whispers: Ole Miss Should Beware Of The Swamp

Last Saturday morning, most American sportsbooks were reporting an avalanche of betting tickets on LSU as a 3-point road favorite at Ole Miss in Lane Kiffin’s highly anticipated return to Oxford.

Naturally, Ole Miss won the game outright.

Fast-forward to this week and the pendulum has furiously swung toward the Rebels. They are now the public darling, armed with a No. 4 ranking in the AP Top 25 and the newest Heisman favorite, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.

Ole Miss is a 3.5-point underdog Saturday at Florida.

And the public loves the idea of getting points.

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"The greatest spot this week would be Florida," former Las Vegas bookmaker Ed Salmons told me. "The line is telling you who’s going to cover this game. Ole Miss just won the game of all games against LSU. It’s not easy for these college kids to bottle that energy and run it back the next week.

"The one thing I’ve learned over the years, these games where the lower ranked team in the polls is favored, the favorite does pretty well."

Florida is much improved, considering multiple oddsmakers have increased their power rating by a touchdown or more after three games.

"These kids at Ole Miss have no idea what they’re stepping into against this new Florida team," Salmons said. "The Gators won pretty easily at Auburn and they had 16 penalties, which the coach absolutely ripped them for.

"I don’t think any team has improved as much as Florida."

Not great for my Gators Under 7.5 wins ticket.

"Ole Miss waited nine months to play LSU," professional bettor Vegas Rick told me. "That was the Super Bowl of Super Bowls. If Ole Miss wins this game in The Swamp, they’re a phenomenal football team."

Elsewhere, undefeated Penn State opened as a 10-point home favorite against Wisconsin, but early sharp support showed for the Badgers at +10.

"The wise guys bet against Penn State all the time," Salmons cracked. "The pace in this game should be so slow. I watched Penn State’s first series last weekend against Buffalo and Penn State kicked a 50-yard field goal on 4th and 2. Against Buffalo. I changed the channel right away."

"You don’t lay 10 in this spot," Vegas Rick said. 

"Laying that many points with Matt Campbell is never fun," professional bettor Slice added. "It’s a no-fly zone for me."

Slice is an aggressive oddsmaker who adjusts his numbers more rapidly than most guys I know. He leans into injuries and his own opinions a ton.

"I moved Miami down," he said. "Miami just hasn’t impressed me. I’m not sold on them. Now their top two cornerbacks are hurt. And Stanford getting beat down by Duke didn’t help either."

"I make Notre Dame -7 at home against Miami," Salmons said.

As for quarterback watch this week, the two biggest names on my injury list are Hawaii’s Micah Alejado and Navy’s Braxton Woodson. Both players are listed as questionable and they’re both important to the betting line.  

Closing college thoughts, Ed?

"I think Georgia is as good as anyone."

To the NFL, here come the Kansas City Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes looks like himself after a quick recovery from his torn left ACL and LCL and the Chiefs are back on top in the AFC West. All summer on "Bear Bets," we discussed the 16 and 18-to-1 prices on Kansas City to win the Super Bowl being insanely high given their past and potential.

And now those prices are long, long gone.

"The Chiefs certainly look much improved from where they were last season," Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel said. "Kenneth Walker has already made a significant impact on the offense and his presence has helped Travis Kelce look like his former self.

"It’s still early but based on what we have seen over the past two weeks from their offense, the Chiefs look like they‘re back in business." 

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