By CatholicVote | Created at 2024-10-22 22:37:31 | Updated at 2024-10-23 22:28:41
23 hours ago
CV NEWS FEED // Two weeks before Election Day, former President Donald Trump’s chance of being elected the nation’s 47th president reached 66% on Polymarket, a leading prediction website.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the site showed Trump with a near 2-to-1 advantage over his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris, with early voting already open in many states.
Per Polymarket, Harris’ percentage of winning the White House was at 34%, her lowest since July 25 – days after Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.
On the other hand, Trump’s percentage of victory on the site is its highest since July 17, four days before Biden’s exit.
The Republican’s Polymarket odds have been steadily climbing since two weeks ago, when he surpassed Harris as the favorite for the first time since September 12, two days after the debate between the two candidates.
Just one week ago, Trump’s odds lead over Harris on the site grew to double digits.
Also according to Polymarket’s forecast on Tuesday afternoon, Trump was the overwhelming betting favorite in each of the seven battleground states.
In Wisconsin, the swing state where his chance of winning was the lowest, he still had a 58% chance of carrying the state per the website, compared to Harris’ 42%.
In every other battleground state, Polymarket showed Trump with at least a six-in-ten chance of winning its electoral votes.
In Michigan, Polymarket showed Trump with an even 60% chance. In Nevada – where the site showed Harris as the slight favorite last week – Trump had a 64% chance of winning the state’s six electoral votes.
>> OCTOBER 15: TRUMP NOW HAS DOUBLE DIGIT ADVANTAGE ON POLYMARKET <<
In Pennsylvania – the state that many analysts consider to be the most important in determining the election’s outcome – Trump had a 62% chance compared to Harris’ 38%.
The former president has extensively campaigned in Pennsylvania lately. This Sunday, he served fries and drive-thru orders at a McDonald’s franchise in the state. Earlier this month, Trump was joined by an enthusiastic Elon Musk for a triumphant rally in Butler, in the same location where Trump survived an assassination attempt in July.
Trump had a 71% chance each of carrying the bordering swing states of North Carolina and Georgia – two states that were particularly devastated by Hurricane Helene late last month.
The contested state where Trump had the best chance of defeating Harris was Arizona, where he possessed a nearly 3-to-1 (74%) advantage. About a quarter of the electorate in Arizona is Latino – a demographic significantly trending toward Trump.
Polymarket is not the only major oddsmaking website to show Trump as the favorite to win the election.
>> OCTOBER 8: TRUMP AGAIN THE BETTING FAVORITE ON POLYMARKET <<
Another site that has in past weeks been more bullish on Harris’ chances now also considers Trump to have a clear advantage in the race.
PredictIt, a competitor of Polymarket’s owned by a New Zealand university, showed the Republican candidate squarely in the driver’s seat, also on Tuesday afternoon.
The website, which measures odds by prices per share in cents (with a higher price denoting a higher probability of winning), had Trump’s price at 60 cents compared to Harris’ at 46 cents at the time.
