By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-16 10:17:09 | Updated at 2026-10-16 10:46:40
32 minutes ago
We look ahead to this Premier League match at Elland Road with our Leeds vs Man Utd prediction and preview.
Leeds vs Man Utd: The Key Stats
- Leeds United have not lost at home in all competitions since March. The Opta supercomputer expects them to keep that run going, giving them a 41.8% win probability.
- Noah Okafor scored both of Leeds‘ goals in their 2-1 win over Manchester United in April – the last Leeds player to score in consecutive league appearances against United was Mark Viduka between March 2001 and March 2002 (3 in a row).
- Manchester United have had the most shots (125) and the most touches in the opposition box (205) in the Premier League this season. The last four teams to have that many shots at this stage of the season all finished in the top two.
Manchester United will aim to dispel some of the dark clouds hanging over the club when they travel to rivals Leeds United in the Premier League on Sunday.
The Red Devils are in the midst of yet another tumultuous period after Lisandro Martínez‘s comments following their 2-0 loss to Atlético Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday.
Pablo Barrios put Atlético ahead within a minute and, after Leny Yoro was shown a red card in the 74th minute, Ademola Lookman made it five games in all competitions without a win for Michael Carrick’s side.
“We expect more from the top, from upstairs, to bring in more players to compete,” Martínez told Amazon Prime. “I expect more from our technical director [Jason Wilcox].”
The Argentina international issued an apology on Thursday after meeting with the club’s leadership, but the episode has put an even sharper focus on his team’s dismal start to the season.
Carrick’s men have just six points from as many Premier League games this season, which is their lowest at this stage since 1986-87 under Ron Atkinson (4).
And just like last season, they have not managed to keep a clean sheet in their first six games – the first time that has happened in successive campaigns since 1930-31 and 1931-32.
A key factor in Man Utd’s struggles has been a dip in form for Bruno Fernandes. The club captain has not been involved in a goal in any of his past four appearances – his longest such run since a seven-match stretch that ended in May 2025.
Fernandes has, however, played a part in nine goals in seven top-flight appearances against Leeds (6 goals, 3 assists), so he will hope to recapture his form when the teams meet at Elland Road.
Leeds have turned Elland Road into a fortress, though. They are unbeaten there in seven games in the Premier League, a run that stretches back to a 1-0 loss to Sunderland on 3 March. The last time they went on a longer unbeaten run at Elland Road was a 15-game streak in 2001.
Daniel Farke’s side also impressed away from home in their previous outing, taking the lead against reigning Premier League champions Arsenal before succumbing to a 2-1 defeat.
Despite that loss, Leeds (7th) go into a meeting with the Red Devils (13th) while ahead of them in the Premier League table for the first time since September 2002 (excluding MD1), when they won 1-0 at Elland Road.
A win for Leeds would put them six points clear of their rivals after seven games or more for just the second time – they were seven points ahead in December 2001 after playing 15 games.
Man Utd will hope to have Kobbie Mainoo and Luke Shaw available for selection after they sat out against Atlético, but all eyes will be on whether Martínez retains his place in the centre of defence after apologising publicly for his comments. Yoro being banned for the trip to Como in the Champions League next Wednesday also gives Carrick a footballing reason to leave the Argentine out of the side.
Noussair Mazraoui and Benjamin Sesko could be in contention to return, but Manuel Ugarte and Patrick Dorgu remain long-term absentees.
Leeds are expected to still be without Joe Rodon and Daniel James.
Leeds vs Man Utd Head-to-Head
Leeds ended a run of 10 winless Premier League games against rivals United with a 2-1 win at Old Trafford in April thanks to Okafor’s double.
Farke’s men will now look to secure consecutive league wins over their rivals for the first time since winning both games in the 1971-72 campaign.
The Red Devils are unbeaten in their last seven away games against Leeds (W5 D2), though, with their previous defeat a 1-0 loss in the Premier League in September 2002.
Given everything that has happened at Old Trafford over the past week, this match will be a true test of their mettle.
Leeds vs Man Utd Prediction
Given the Red Devils’ poor form this season, the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations ultimately gave Leeds the edge in this fixture.
Leeds have a 41.8% win probability, although Carrick’s men still have a solid chance with a 31.6% likelihood of taking all three points.
That is not much more than the probability of the spoils being shared, though, which stands at 26.7%
Leeds vs Man Utd Predicted Lineups
Leeds United: James Trafford, Jayden Bogle, James Justin, Nico Elvedi, Tarik Muharemović, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Ethan Ampadu, Ao Tanaka, Anton Stach, Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Leny Yoro, Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Youri Tielemans, Carlos Baleba, Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, Matheus Cunha.
Head coach: Michael Carrick.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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