By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-16 10:17:08 | Updated at 2026-10-16 10:45:05
28 minutes ago
After a scintillating Champions League win in midweek, Unai Emery’s side will look to carry their momentum into domestic action. We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash with our Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer gives Newcastle a marginal edge ahead of kick-off, with a 40.9% chance of victory to Aston Villa’s 32.4%.
- Villa could pick up wins in consecutive visits to St. James’ Park for the first time since winning three between 1955-56 and 1957-58, after winning 2-0 there in January.
- The Magpies have gone 12 straight Premier League home games without a clean sheet – their longest run without a shutout since going 13 between December 1998 and August 1999.
After picking up hugely contrasting results in their last respective outings, Newcastle and Aston Villa meet in the Premier League on Saturday, with both sides looking to improve their domestic performances after inconsistent starts.
Matthias Jaissle’s side fell to a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Frank Lampard’s Coventry City on Monday, with Sidiki Cherif, Ellis Simms, and Stephen Mfuni striking in the second half to seal victory after Jack Rudoni’s sixth-minute penalty.
Sven Botman netted a second-half consolation, but that will have meant precious little to Jaissle, whose biggest challenge at present is surely plugging his side’s leaky defence.
The Magpies have conceded 13 Premier League goals this season – their third-highest total after six matches, behind only 1999-00 (18) and 2021-22 (14). They went on to finish 11th in both of those campaigns.
Beyond the goals, though, Jaissle will be further concerned by how many shots his team have allowed. Newcastle have faced 34 shots on target this season, with only Chelsea (36) facing more in the competition.
It has been an especially concerning issue at home, with the Magpies now going 12 Premier League matches without a clean sheet at St. James’ Park. They last endured a longer run between December 1998 and August 1999 under Ruud Gullit (13 games).
Perhaps most worrying for Jaissle is that only Tottenham (13) have lost more Premier League games in 2026 than Newcastle’s 12, while the Magpies have conceded the joint-most goals in the competition this year (44, level with Chelsea).
Aston Villa, meanwhile, will be riding the high of yet another spectacular European performance.
Unai Emery’s side thrashed Fenerbahce 6-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday, with Nicolas Jackson and Ross Barkley both netting braces alongside goals from Johan Manzambi and Tammy Abraham.
While that victory has lifted them towards the upper reaches of the Champions League standings, the Villans’ domestic form tells a different story.
They sit 16th in the table with just six points and have won just one of their six matches so far, squandering a late lead against Brentford last time out to eventually settle for a 2-2 draw.
Like Newcastle, Villa have faced similar, though perhaps not quite as extreme, defensive struggles this season.
They have shipped 11 goals across six Premier League matches so far – their most at this stage of a season since 1986-87 (16), when they eventually finished bottom of the table.
The Villans have also faced an uncharacteristic 15.8 shots per game this season – their most since the 2019-20 season, when they allowed an average of 16 per game.
Still, faith in Emery to guide Villa up the table will remain high, especially with the Spaniard on the cusp of recording his 100th Premier League victory.
He has won 99 of his 196 matches in the competition (D44 L53), and victory over Newcastle would make him the joint-ninth-fastest manager to reach 100 Premier League wins.
Villa will, however, have to be wary of Harvey Barnes, who has become a constant thorn in their side in recent times.
The Newcastle winger has contributed to 10 goals in 13 Premier League matches against Villa (six goals, four assists) – his joint-most against a single opponent along with West Ham. He has only found the net more against Leeds United (seven goals).
Villa, meanwhile, will hope Jackson can build on his recent good form.
As well as scoring twice on Wednesday, the striker has found the net in each of his last two league games. He has only scored in three consecutive matches once before, doing so for Chelsea in May 2024.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
Newcastle are winless across their last three Premier League meetings with Aston Villa (D1 L2), losing 2-0 at St. James’ Park in their most recent encounter in January 2026 following goals from Emi Buendía and Ollie Watkins.
The Magpies have not lost consecutive matches against Villa since losing home and away in 2004-05, the latter of which saw Steven Taylor, Lee Bowyer and Kieron Dyer all sent off.
Having won 2-0 on Tyneside in January, Villa will now be looking to claim consecutive away league victories over Newcastle for the first time since winning three in a row between 1955-56 and 1957-58.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to split these two sides ahead of kick-off at St. James’ Park.
The hosts came out on top in 40.9% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, but Villa are still shown a respectable 32.4% chance of taking three points.
A draw, meanwhile, accounts for the remaining 26.7%.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
Newcastle: Lukás Hornícek, Lewis Miley, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall, Nico González, Joe Willock, Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes, Yoane Wissa, Matias Fernandez-Pardo.
Head coach: Matthias Jaissle
Aston Villa: Zion Suzuki, Matty Cash, Victor Lindelöf, Tyrone Mings, Pau Torres, Boubacar Kamara, João Gomes, Johan Manzambi, Emiliano Buendía, John McGinn, Nicolas Jackson.
Manager: Unai Emery
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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