Midterms 2026: GB News examines three crucial races as America decides Donald Trump's fate

The US goes to the polls every two years to elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, around a third of the country's senators, a number of governors and a range of other elected positions and ballot measures.

Right now, Mr Trump's Republicans hold both the House and Senate by slim margins, but if either were to become Democrat-run, it is likely to significantly hamper the White House.

The Senate, the US’s upper chamber, is held 53-47 by the right-wing party, and the House 219-214, with two vacancies.

Midterms are usually seen as a referendum on the current President, with the party in the White House often losing out.

Democratic strategist Malbert Smith told GB News this midterm was “even more” a referendum on Mr Trump after he told voters at the first-ever Republican midterm convention to vote as if he were on the ballot.

"He is as unpopular as he's ever been," he said. "And I don't really see that changing, especially not changing in the next 30 days or next 30-ish days until Election Day."

He also warned Republicans could launch "unsubstantiated and patently false claims about cheating or noncitizens voting" if his party wins.

But Mr Trump's second term has been productive, with the US recording its largest annual decline in violent crime, over three million illegal migrant removals, and has seen 1.5 million people lifted out of poverty.

Republican commentator Toria Brookes told GB News the midterm convention this time last month was likely to embolden his base.

"There was a lot more positivity," she said. "And I think that people are actually going to be bolstered further with their support for President Trump."

She added: "We are still coming back from Bidenomics. And it's one of those things that people forget because the media is now with the podcasters in the United States, and they are doing everything they can to try to deter the Republicans from voting."

But the numbers don’t tell the full story.

John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy, both veteran southern Republicans, were ousted by Mr Trump in rare rejections of incumbents.

The Democratic Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, meanwhile, has increasingly aligned himself with conservative stances, even admitting to being a “lifelong Republican” in what some have branded a Freudian slip just months ago.

According to the Cook Political Report, 185 House seats are viewed as "solid Democrat", 12 House seats are considered "likely Democrat" and nine "lean Democrat".

Republicans, meanwhile, are solid for another 176 seats, 19 are viewed as "likely Republican" and 10 "lean Republican".

This leaves 22 seats as a "toss-up". Democrats need just a net gain of three seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.

Nine states have redrawn their House congressional districts since the last election, making for some untested constituencies.

Seven of the Senate’s 35 contested seats are considered “toss-ups”, but this notably includes Texas, which has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1993.

While much attention will focus on the national picture, a variety of countywide and statewide elected positions will be up for grabs.

That's everything from sheriffs, judges, school board positions, railroad commissioners and governors.

Now, GB News looks at the three key races which could help define Donald Trump's agenda for the next two years.

President Trump hosted the Republican's first ever midterm convention to drum up support for candidates

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TEXAS

The traditional Republican heartland has unusually become one of the most contested and important races this year.

The state’s more than-20 year incumbent, John Cornyn, was booted out of the seat by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a primary thanks to the endorsement of Mr Trump.

Its Democratic challenger is James Talarico, a seminarian and educator who rose to viral success after he challenged a Bill which requires the 10 Commandments to be displayed in classrooms in the Texas State Congress.

This eventually led to an appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast and a rising platform which has made the race a toss-up, with Mr Talarico ahead by six per cent in Marist’s most recent polling.

In 2016, Beto O’Rourke mobilised Democrats in the state as he challenged Ted Cruz for his Senate seat - but he eventually lost despite optimism and record fundraising on the left.

Mr Smith, who served as an adviser in the Biden administration, told GB News the situation in 2026 was different, and thinks the seminarian has a “great shot of winning”.

"Talarico has been leading in almost every public poll from anywhere from one to three points," he said. "And that just shows you that we're in a different spot here."

“Now, that doesn't mean Talarico is for sure going to win," he said - but the strategist believes what happened to Mr O'Rourke won't happen to Mr Talarico.

Mr Paxton, meanwhile, served almost his entire term as Attorney General facing securities fraud charges, and in 2023 faced impeachment from a Republican-led Texas House.

He was both praised and mocked by Mr Trump in the Republican Party’s first ever midterm convention. "He may not be the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen," Mr Trump said. "But you know what, he is - he's the greatest Attorney General in America."

Speaking at a vehicle manufacturing firm, the President warned that if Democrats won the midterms they would "let foreign trade cheaters plunder your wages" and "close up your jobs" as he stressed the importance of voting for Mr Paxton.

"It's such a big race," he said. "And I just want to say that he's been a friend of mine for a long time. One of the most loyal people.

"When I was being hit by the radical left very hard - harder than very few people could have withstood - Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody."

While Mr Paxton may have been criticised for his appearance, he has a long track-record of winning elections, having been elected in Texas’ Congress for 12 years before becoming Attorney General.

But Mr Smith slammed the Attorney General as a weaker candidate than Mr Cruz, saying he can "barely string two words together and doesn’t even look like he’s awake sometimes when he’s giving a speech".

"If Ken Paxton wins, it will be barely."

Ken Paxton was named by Donald Trump as the 'greatest Attorney General in America'

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Democrat James Talarico rose to viral success after he challenged a Bill which requires the 10 Commandments to be displayed in classrooms

REUTERS

MICHIGAN

The Wolverine State is a more traditional swing seat - but incumbent Senator Gary Peters is not carrying on, allowing for left-wing Dr Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers to fight it out for his spot.

Dr El-Sayed, like Zohran Mamdani, represents an emerging faction of the Democratic party - the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) - which some fear could take over if successful in November.

Central to his campaign is his outspoken support of Palestine and cutting off military support for Israel.

Latest polling has the far-left candidate with a five per cent lead over his opponent.

He faced off in a contentious primary campaign against Haley Stevens, whom he accused of receiving millions of dollars from Aipac, a pro-Israel lobbying group.

Much of the campaign has centred around his campaigning and endorsement from controversial political streamer and influencer Hasan Piker, who previously said America "deserved 9/11”.

But Mr Smith told GB News he did not believe the DSA would cost the party in crucial swing states.

"None of our swing candidates like Governor Roy Cooper or Talarico in Texas or Turek in Iowa are DSA folks," he said.

"And as much as Republicans would like to make this election about a streamer in California, they can't get around the simple fact that President Trump ran on ending inflation on day one and he failed."

For Mr Rogers, a former FBI agent, this will be his second time competing for a Senate seat as he seeks support from independents who may not support Dr El-Sayed’s far-left policies.

The Detroit-native spent 14 years in the House, and was seen as a bipartisan operator, voting against his own party to support an automotive industry bailout and worked extensively in the Chamber's Intelligence Committee, leading an investigation into the 2012 Benghazi attack.

He has been endorsed by Mr Trump, who warned the "radical left socialist has a real shot" as he urged Michiganders to "make Michigan TOO BIG TO RIG".

Dr Abdul El-Sayed has faced criticism for his connection with controversial influencer Hasan Piker

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Mike Rogers was endorsed by Donald Trump as he urged Michiganders to prevent a 'radical left socialist' winning their state

REUTERS

ALASKA

In the remote, traditional Republican state of Alaska, Democrat former Congresswoman Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Dan Sullivan in the Senate.

Mr Smith highlighted it as a key race which could expose just how the electorate judges the President.

"Most of the polling has her up a little bit," he said. "That's another state that Trump has won comfortably, basically, in every presidential election, but it's now in trouble."

Lisa Murkowski, Alaska's senior Republican Senator and a noted bipartisan, previously endorsed Mrs Peltola when she was serving in the House - but has endorsed with the party this election.

Mr Peltola, if successful, would become the first indigenous Alaskan Senator.

She defeated former Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin in 2024 to win her current seat in the House.

Alaska uses a unique voting system, with a nonpartisan "jungle primary" which sends four candidates through to a ranked-choice ballot.

This has allowed another man, also named Dan Sullivan, to enter the race. Alaskan election officials hoped to have his name removed from the ballot, but a ruling in the state court declared this unlawful.

Last month, Mr Trump announced a $54billion investment into a liquefied natural pipeline in the state, and praised the incumbent Mr Sullivan for working "relentlessly" to see it to fruition.

He said: "For five decades, politicians have talked about the Alaska pipeline. I’ve been hearing about it from the time I’m a little boy.

"I was always fascinated by it, but today, with the help of Senator Dan S Sullivan... and don’t get it confused with anybody else. Remember, they put up a fake. It's a fake Sullivan - the guy knows nothing."

Incumbent Dan Sullivan was praised by the President for his work to secure investment in an LNG pipeline

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Democrat Mary Peltola could become the first indigenous Alasakan Senator if she wins her race

GETTY

The 2018 midterms during Mr Trump's first term were characterised as a "blue wave".

The Democrats overturned a Republican majority in the House with a net change of 40 seats.

But the right-wing party maintained control of the Senate and managed to gain two seats.

Greg Swenson, the chairman of Republicans Overseas UK, told GB News: "I don't think we'll see what we saw in 2018, and we surely won't see what we saw for the Republicans in 2010 and 1994, or the Democrats in 2006.

"Those were massive waves. This isn't a massive wave."

Though Mr Smith argued this year's redistricting could backfire and even amplify a smaller wave.

He said: "One thing Republicans have to worry about, too, is that when you're doing redistricting, it's like you're trying to build a wall for an upcoming storm and you're trying to gauge how big the storm is going to be, but if you get it wrong, it's still going to blow over the wall you built.

"And depending on how you designed it, it could lead to even more damage."

Mr Trump has, in recent days, embarked on a midterm tour, making speeches in Texas, Oklahoma, and Ohio. And he has offered $5,000 to every American if both the Senate and House stay red.

The President must stop a blue wave to be able to fulfill his agenda.

But Democrats have their eyes set on something bigger: a tsunami.