By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-07 14:52:09 | Updated at 2026-09-08 15:59:18
1 day ago
With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across the 2026-27 competition.
The Opta supercomputer will again be with us every step of the way in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League as the model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all matches and season outcomes.
Paris Saint-Germain have won back-to-back Champions League crowns after their penalty-shootout win over Arsenal in last season’s final, and they are among the favourites once again this time around. Real Madrid were the last team to win the UCL in three consecutive seasons, doing so in 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18.
The Spanish giants, alongside rivals Barcelona, will be among the leading contenders in 2026-27, along with a host of Premier League clubs. There will be five English top-flight teams competing in the league phase this time around, with Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool among the favourites and Manchester United alongside Aston Villa in the chasing pack.
Bayern Munich haven’t won the Champions League since 2020, but will undoubtedly be in the mix for the title this season, while Serie A clubs Inter Milan, Como, Napoli and Roma will be hoping to end a 17-year wait for an Italian winner.
Below, Opta Analyst provides detailed predictions for each game from Matchday 1, powered by thousands of simulations from the Opta supercomputer.
Matchday 1
Tuesday 8 September
The opening matchday of the 2026-27 Champions League is split over three days of action, with Tuesday evening hosting the first six games of this season’s league phase.
After waiting 101 days for Champions League football to return, we’re eased back into the action with early kick-offs between Club Brugge and Aston Villa as well as AEK Athens vs LASK.
LASK are Champions League debutants in 2026-27, with their only taste of European Cup action coming back in 1965-66, when it ended swiftly after just two games against Górnik Zabrze in the first round.
AEK have lost their last six UCL matches, but those all came eight years ago. The Opta supercomputer is backing them to end that run against LASK in their opener here, with the Greek club winning over half of pre-game simulations (52.2%).
Aston Villa won the UEFA Europa League last season, but have started poorly in 2026-27, winning one point in their opening three Premier League games. Arguably more concerning is their failure to score while attempting just one shot on target over 270 minutes.
A trip to Club Brugge will be tough, but the Belgian side have struggled historically against Premier League clubs, winning only one of their last 17 games against English sides in major European competition (D3 L13).
The supercomputer struggled to split the two sides in this one, with Villa (38.9%) just edging Club Brugge (35.5%) across the 10,000 match simulations before kick-off.
No disrespect to those four clubs, but this is very much the case of the starter before the main course.
Real Madrid vs Inter Milan is a standout fixture on MD1, as Madrid look to make a perfect start to their UCL challenge in front of their own fans at the Bernabéu.
Now boss of Madrid once again, José Mourinho will come up against his former team Internazionale, with whom he won the UCL in 2010 at the Bernabéu. Current Inter manager Christian Chivu was also in Mourinho’s starting XI for that 2010 triumph.
Madrid have won all four of their UEFA Champions League games against Internazionale this century – indeed, they are the opponent that Inter have faced the most times in major European competition this century without managing a victory. The Opta supercomputer expects more of the same on Tuesday night, with Real Madrid winning 56.0% of the pre-game simulations, and Inter winning under a quarter (22.3%).
Manchester City had an underwhelming Champions League campaign last season, thrashed in the last 16 by Real Madrid (5-1 on aggregate), and they’ll be hoping to bounce back under Enzo Maresca this time around following Pep Guardiola’s departure.
City begin with a tough trip to FC Porto, who have started the season on fire in Portugal with five wins from five in the Primeira Liga, conceding just once. But they haven’t come up against Erling Haaland this season. With 34 goals in 39 Champions League appearances so far, he has Sergio Agüero’s club record tally of 36 in the UCL within his sights.
Maresca’s side won over half (54.1%) of the pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer, which is similar to Borussia Dortmund’s win rate over Villarreal across the 10,000 sims pre-match (52.4%).
Dortmund hammered the Spanish side 4-0 in the competition last season, which was their only previous meeting in the competition. Villarreal lost each of their final six UCL league-phase matches last term; they’ve never endured a longer losing run in major European competition.
The night’s other game is between Ligue 1 side Lille and Spanish club Real Betis, with the Opta supercomputer giving the home side the advantage across its pre-match simulations (Lille: 43.7%, Real Betis: 30.3%).
Wednesday 9 September
Wednesday’s six-game schedule starts with early kick-offs in Spain and Germany.
Barcelona have been one of the most exciting attacking teams to watch in Europe so far this season. They’ve scored 17 goals across their opening four La Liga matches in 2026-27, with five of those coming in a 5-0 away win at Valencia at the weekend.
Feyenoord will have a job stopping them on Wednesday at Camp Nou, but if they did somehow secure a shock win, they’d be the first ever Dutch side to win away at Barcelona in European competition (D3, L7 of the previous 10). The Opta supercomputer isn’t big on their chances, though, with the Eredivisie side winning just 7.3% of the pre-match sims.
Viking will make their UEFA Champions League debut with a trip to Bundesliga club Stuttgart. It’s their first appearance in the premier European competition since the European Cup first round back in 1983-84.
Since the UEFA Champions League rebrand in 1992, Viking are just the fourth Norwegian side to make it to the competition’s group/league phase after Bodø/Glimt, Molde and Rosenborg. Of those three sides, none won their opening match in the tournament (D1 L2). The Opta supercomputer doesn’t have much confidence in them ending that run either, with Stuttgart securing all three points across 73.3% of the 10,000 pre-match sims.
PSG have suffered a torrid start to 2026-27 following their hugely successful campaign last time out. Winless in their first three Ligue 1 games this season and losers in the curtain-raising Trophée des Champions versus Lens in mid-August, their only ‘competitive’ win came in the UEFA Super Cup versus Aston Villa on 12 August.
Their fortunes will surely change on Wednesday as they face UCL minnows Slovan Bratislava in Paris, and the Opta supercomputer agrees, giving them the biggest chance of victory across MD1 (83.6%).
Sporting CP (51.4% vs Galatasaray) and Liverpool (53.0% vs Atlético Madrid) are also tipped to secure home wins on Wednesday night by the supercomputer.
Lisbon-based Sporting impressed in the league phase last season, surprising most with a top-eight finish. They eventually reached the quarter-finals for the first time, before being eliminated by eventual runners-up Arsenal. They also scored more goals (22) and won more games (6) than in any other season in the competition.
Liverpool have won each of their last three UEFA Champions League games against Atlético Madrid, including in the league phase at Anfield last season, where Virgil van Dijk’s added-time winner gave them all three points.
Arsenal were the only team to win all eight of their UCL league phase matches last season, and they’ll hope to continue that form with a trip to Naples on MD1 this time around.
Napoli will be a tricky opponent for the Gunners, but the Opta supercomputer is confident in their ability to get all three points. The Gunners won over half (52.0%) of pre-match sims.
While Arsenal eventually fell short in the final, losing a penalty shootout versus PSG, they were the only team who didn’t lose a single game in normal time in the competition last season (W11 D4 L0). Amazingly, the Gunners only trailed for 42 minutes and 48 seconds in 2025-26, which was also the fewest of any team.
Thursday 10 September
Thursday’s action in the UCL isn’t as eye-catching as the previous two nights, but it does see German behemoths Bayern Munich open their campaign.
They host Bodø/Glimt, who have troubled numerous opponents in Europe over the last few years, and will be looking for another big-name victim early on in 2026-27.
Last season was Bodø/Glimt’s first ever UCL campaign, winning five of their 12 matches (D3 L4) and reaching the last 16. All five of their wins came in succession, between January and March.
They’ll come up against one of the best attacking sides in world football here, though. Only Barcelona in 1999-00 and PSG last season (both 45) have scored more goals in a single season of the UCL than Bayern in 2025-26 (43). Harry Kane played a big part in that, with the England captain scoring 33 times in 38 games in the competition since signing from Spurs.
Bayern (78.9%) are strong favourites to defeat the Norwegian side according to the supercomputer, with their pre-match chance of victory just above Manchester United’s (78.0%) to beat UCL debutants Sabah at Old Trafford.
United, who face a team from Azerbaijan in a competitive fixture for the first time ever, feature in the Champions League for the first time since 2023-24 when they got knocked out in the group stage.
Como are another side making their Champions League bow on Thursday, with Cesc Fàbregas’ side another who are expected to start with a victory on MD1 based on the Opta supercomputer’s projections (48.4%). They kick off life in the UCL with a home meeting with RB Leipzig, who lost seven of their eight league phase games in their last competition appearance back in 2024-25.
PSV are expected to pick up a home win over Shakhtar Donetsk (62.0%), while Slavia Prague also narrowly edge out Lens at home in another of Thursday’s games (37.4%) according to the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 match simulations before kick-off.
Fenerbahçe and Roma face each other for the first time in one of Thursday’s early UCL games, with Roma hoping to end a poor run of form for Italian sides in Turkey. The last Serie A team to win away to a Turkish team in the UCL was Milan in November 2005 (4-0 vs Fenerbahçe). Since then, none of the last five to play there in the competition have won (D2 L3).
A Roma away win was the most frequent result across the supercomputer’s pre-match simulations (43.0%), with Gian Piero Gasperini’s side the only team predicted to win away from home on Thursday night.
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